Bivariate stochastic modelling of ephemeral streamflow

Streamflow time series in arid and semi‐arid regions can be characterized as a sequence of single discrete flow episodes or clusters of hydrographs separated by periods of zero discharge. Here, two point process models are presented for the joint occurrence of flow events at neighbouring river sites. The first allows for excess clustering by adding autocorrelated errors to an empirically derived seasonally varying probability of an event and is extended to the case of the joint occurrence of flow events in two catchments. The second approach is to explicitly model the occurrences of clusters of events and the bivariate point process of event occurrences within them at both sites. For the two models, the magnitude of event peaks are assumed to be drawn from continuous distributions with seasonally varying parameters. Rises and recessions in discharge are interpolated between the peaks using regression estimates of hydrographs. The models are fitted to mean daily flows at two sites in Namibia and demonstrated to provide realistic simulations of the hydrology. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Gravitational lensing in quasar samples

The first cosmic mirage was discovered approximately 20 years ago as the double optical counterpart of a radio source. This phenomenon had been predicted some 70 years earlier as a consequence of General Relativity. We present here a summary of what we have learnt since. The applications are so numerous that we had to concentrate on a few selected aspects of this new field of research. This review is focused on strong gravitational lensing, i.e. the formation of multiple images, in QSO samples. It is intended to give the reader an up-to-date status of the observations and to present an overview of its most interesting potential applications in cosmology and astrophysics, as well as numerous important results achieved so far. The first section follows an intuitive approach to the basics of gravitational lensing and is developed in view of our interest in multiply imaged quasars. The astrophysical and cosmological applications of gravitational lensing are outlined in Sect. 2 and the most important results are presented in Sect. 5. Sections 3 and 4 are devoted to the observations. Finally, conclusions are summarized in the last section. We have tried to avoid duplication with existing (and excellent) introductions to the field of gravitational lensing. For this reason, we did not concentrate on the individual properties of specific lens models, as these are already well presented in Narayan and Bartelmann (1996) and on a more intuitive ground in Refsdal and Surdej (1994). Wambsganss (1998) proposes a broad view on gravitational lensing in astronomy; the reviews by Fort and Mellier (1994) and Hattori et al. (1999) deal with lensing by galaxy clusters; microlensing in the Galaxy and the local group is reviewed by Paczyński (1996) and a general panorama on weak lensing is given by Bartelmann and Schneider (1999) and Mellier (1999). The monograph on the theory of gravitational lensing by Schneider, Ehlers and Falco (1992) also remains a reference in the field. Received 4 April 2000 / Published online 9 August 2000     

Metals from star-forming dwarfs: retention or ejection?

We show evidences that gas outflows occur in starburst galaxies as superbubbles evolve. We then question whether hot gas will be expelled and enrich the IGM with metals or be retained within the host galaxy. For this purpose we construct three extreme scenarios of the star formation histories for a sample of dwarf galaxies using either their present metallicity or their luminosity. The three scenarios imply different mechanical energy input rates, those are compared with theoretical lower limits for the ejection of processed matter out of host galaxies. The comparison strongly points at the existence of extended gaseous haloes acting as a barrier that allows these galaxies to retain their metals and enhance their abundance. Our findings strongly point that continuous star-forming processes, rather than coeval bursts, must contribute to the overall metallicity in our galaxy sample. This revised version was published online in September 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Acoustic evidence for shallow gas accumulations in the sediments of the Eastern Black Sea*

ABSTRACT The Black Sea contains immense gas accumulations. Exploration of gas accumulations is geologically and economically important because migration of methane in sediments may cause massive slope failures and the methane seeps may indicate deeper hydrocarbon reservoirs. Human activity both in and on the seafloor (oil industry) and natural activity (earthquakes, cyclones) trigger mechanisms for seafloor failure and gas release that may have a local and possibly global environmental impact. Recently, sonar and high‐resolution seismic surveys were carried out to obtain information about the effects of gas and gas‐filled sediments throughout the Turkish margin of the Eastern Black Sea, and shallow gas was detected on the subbottom profiler records. It continues about 25–65 m below the sea floor and is marked by bright and cloudy spots, sometimes pockmarks and acoustic voids. The lower section of the Turkish shelf is an extensive pockmarked plateau. The pockmarks are seen as circular structures with high backscattering on the sonar records.     

Modelling strain localization in granular materials using micropolar theory: numerical implementation and verification

Implementation and applications for a constitutive numerical model on F‐75 silica sand, course silica sand and two sizes of glass beads compressed under plane strain conditions are presented in this work. The numerical model is used to predict the stress versus axial strain and volumetric strain versus axial strain relationships of those materials; moreover, comparisons between measured and predicted shear band thickness and inclination angles are discussed and the numerical results compare well with the experimental measurements. The numerical model is found to respond to the changes in confining pressure and the initial relative density of a given granular material. The mean particle size is used as an internal length scale. Increasing the confining pressure and the initial density is found to decrease the shear band thickness and increase the inclination angle. The micropolar or Cosserat theory is found to be effective in capturing strain localization in granular materials. The finite element formulations and the solution method for the boundary value problem in the updated Lagrangian frame (UP) are discussed in the companion paper. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparison of neural network and McNish and Lincoln methods for the prediction of the smoothed sunspot index

In this paper we propose a comparison between two methods for the problem of long-term prediction of the smoothed sunspot index. These two methods are first the classical method of McNish and Lincoln (as improved by Stewart and Ostrow), and second a neural network method. The results of these two methods are compared in two periods, during the ascending and the declining phases of the current cycle 22 (1986–1996). The predictions with neural networks are much better than with the McNish and Lincoln method for the atypical ascending phase of cycle 22. During the second period the predictions are very similar, and in agreement with observations, when the McNish and Lincoln method is based on the data of declining phases of the cycles.     

A high-resolution numerical modeling study of the subtidal circulation in the northern South China Sea

A high-resolution, regional, numerical-model-based, real-time ocean prediction system for the northern South China Sea, called the Northern South China Sea Nowcast/Forecast System (NSCSNFS), has been used to investigate subtidal mesoscale flows during the time period of the Asian Seas International Acoustic Experiment (ASIAEX) field programs. The dynamics are dominated by three influences; 1) surface wind stress, 2) intrusions of the Kuroshio through Luzon Strait, and 3) the large-scale cyclonic gyre that occupies much of the northern South China Sea. Each component primarily drives currents in the upper ocean, so deep currents are rather weak. Wind stress is especially effective at forcing currents over the shallow China shelf. The Kuroshio intrusion tends to flow westward until it meets the northern edge of the large-scale cyclonic gyre. Together, these currents produce an intense, narrow jet directed northwest toward the continental slope, often in the region of the ASIAEX field programs. Upon reaching the slope, the current splits with part flowing northeastward along the slope and part flowing southwestward, producing large horizontal and vertical shears and making this region dynamically very complicated and difficult to simulate. The Kuroshio intrusion tends to be stronger (weaker) when the northeasterly winds are strong (weak) and the large-scale gyre is farther south (north), consistent with conclusions from previous model studies. At the northern boundary, the model produces a persistent northward flow through Taiwan Strait into the East China Sea. Data assimilation in the NSCSNFS model is shown to dampen the system, extracting energy and causing the entire system to spin down.     

Evaporation estimation on Lake Titicaca: a synthesis review and modelling

The aim of this study was to validate evaporation models that can be used for palaeo‐reconstructions of large lake water levels. Lake Titicaca, located in a high‐altitude semi‐arid tropical area in the northern Andean Altiplano, was the object of this case study. As annual evaporation is about 90% of lake output, the lake water balance depends heavily on the yearly and monthly evaporation flux. At the interannual scale, evaporation estimation presents great variability, ranging from 1350 to 1900 mm year^?1. It has been found that evaporation is closely related to lake rainfall by a decreasing relationship integrating the implicit effect of nebulosity and humidity. At the seasonal scale, two monthly evaporation data sets were used: pan observations and estimations derived from the lake energy budget. Comparison between these data sets shows that (i) there is one maximum per year for pan evaporation and two maxima per year for lake evaporation, and (ii) pan evaporation is greater than lake evaporation by about 100 mm year^?1. These differences, mainly due to a water depth scale factor, have been simulated with a simple thermal model θ_w(h, t) of a free‐surface water column. This shows that pan evaporation (h = 0·20 m) is strongly correlated with direct solar radiation, whereas the additional maximum of lake evaporation (h = 40 m) is related to the heat restitution towards the atmosphere from the water body at the end of summer. Finally, five monthly evaporation models were tested in order to obtain the optimal efficiency/complexity ratio. When the forcing variables are limited to those that are most readily available in the past, i.e. air temperature and solar radiation, the best results are obtained with the radiative Abtew model (r = 0·70) and with the Makkink radiative/air temperature model (r = 0·67). Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Seasonal Characteristics of Equatorial Plasma Bubbles in Conjugate Hemispheres During 2015

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - In this paper, using the Total Electron Content (TEC) data obtained from GUAM (13.58° N, 144.86° E) and PNGM (2.04° S, 147.36° E) Global Positioning...     

Development of a three-dimensional basin model to evaluate the site effects in the tectonically active near-fault region of Gölyaka basin,Düzce,Turkey

Natural Hazards - The high seismicity and tectonic activity of the study area located in a near-fault region in Gölyaka, Düzce, results in a bedrock geometry highly complex in the sense...