Comparative analysis of fuzzy inference systems for water consumption time series prediction

Two types of fuzzy inference systems (FIS) are used for predicting municipal water consumption time series. The FISs used include an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and a Mamdani fuzzy inference systems (MFIS). The prediction models are constructed based on the combination of the antecedent values of water consumptions. The performance of ANFIS and MFIS models in training and testing phases are compared with the observations and the best fit model is identified according to the selected performance criteria. The results demonstrated that the ANFIS model is superior to MFIS models and can be successfully applied for prediction of water consumption time series.     

Sources of groundwater recharge at the confluence of the Niles, Sudan

 Due to the rapid expansion of the Sudanese capital city far away from its three Niles, it has become a necessity to estimate the sustainability of the groundwater resources in this arid area. The purpose of this study – based on the stable-isotopic composition of groundwater – is to identify the sources of recharge and their relative contribution. The results show that groundwater infiltrated from the Niles under the present prevailing arid climate, with greater contribution from the White Nile compared to the Blue Nile, occupies an extension of 12 km from the Niles within the two main aquifers. Paleogroundwater of meteoric origin, infiltrated in the cooler pluvial earlier Holocene, occupies the outer zones beyond the Niles' effect. A rational utilization policy is recommended to preserve the finite groundwater resources. Received: 27 August 1998 · Accepted: 2 March 1999     

Petrology and geochemistry of Jura granite and granite gneiss in the Neelum Valley,Lesser Himalayas (Kashmir,Pakistan)

Late Proterozoic rocks of Tanol Formation in the Lesser Himalayas of Neelum Valley area are largely green schist to amphibolite facies rocks intruded by early Cambrian Jura granite gneiss and Jura granite representing Pan-African orogeny event in the area. These rocks are further intruded by pegmatites of acidic composition, aplites, and dolerite dykes. Based on field observations, texture, and petrographic character, three different categories of granite gneiss (i.e., highly porphyritic, coarse-grained two micas granite gneiss, medium-grained two micas granite gneiss, and leucocratic tourmaline-bearing muscovite granite gneiss), and granites (i.e., highly porphyritic coarse-grained two micas granite, medium-grained two micas granite, and leucocratic tourmaline-bearing coarse-grained muscovite granite) were classified. Thin section studies show that granite gneiss and granite are formed due to fractional crystallization, as revealed by zoning in plagioclase. The Al saturation index indicates that granite gneiss and granite are strongly peraluminous and S-type. Geochemical analysis shows that all granite gneisses are magnesian except one which is ferroan whereas all granites are ferroan except one which is magnesian. The CaO/Na₂O ratio (>0.3) indicates that granitic melt of Jura granite gneiss and granite is pelite-psammite derived peraluminous granitic melt formed due to partial melting of Tanol Formation. The rare earth element (REE) patterns of the Jura granite and Jura granite gneiss indicate that granitic magma of Jura granite and Jura granite gneiss is formed due to partial melting of rocks that are similar in composition to that of upper continental crust.     

Trace Metal Solid State Speciation in Aerosols of the Northern Levantine Basin,East Mediterranean

An established three stage sequential leach scheme was applied to a series of selected high volume aerosol samples (n = 35) collected from the Turkish Eastern Mediterranean coastline (Erdemli). Samples were selected according to their air mass back trajectory history to reflect the contrasting mixtures of aerosol material present in the Eastern Mediterranean marine aerosol. Two populations were adopted, those samples which were classed as “anthropogenic” and those which were “Saharan” dominated aerosol populations. Applying the three stage leach it was possible to define the proportion for each of the considered metals (Al, Fe, Cu, Pb, Cd, Zn and Mn) present in the (a) “exchangeable” (b) “carbonate / oxide” and (c) “refractory” phases, representing novel solid state aerosol speciation data for this marine system. Clear trends were established, conforming with data from previous studies with mainly crustal derived metals (Al and Fe) being present in the refractory phases (Al > 88%; Fe > 84%) and those influenced by anthropogenic sources being dominating in the exchangeable phase, although for these metals the variability was comparatively high (12–64%; 19–85%; 40–100% for Zn, Pb and Cd, respectively). For the majority, greater exchangeable fractions were present the lower the crustal source contribution to the aerosol population, whereas the “refractory” fraction exhibited contrasting behaviour. This was illustrated by the novel application of the mixing diagram, presenting each of the three speciation stages against the corresponding percent anthropogenic contribution to each collected sample. Zn, Pb and Cd all illustrated progressive decrease in the percent exchangeable with increasing crustal contribution to the aerosol population. The percent exchangeable was discussed in terms of its use to represent the upper limit of the bioavailable fraction of metal associated with the aerosol, post deposition. The mixing diagram approach enabled the prediction of the residual fractions for Cd, Pb and Zn (41 ± 4%; 62 ± 4% and 82 ± 5%, respectively,) in Saharan end-member material.     

Origin and source regions of PM10 in the Eastern Mediterranean atmosphere

A set of daily PM₁₀ (n = 281) samples collected from April 2001 to April 2002 at a rural site (Erdemli), located on the coast of the Eastern Mediterranean, were analyzed applying Mass Closure (MC), absolute principal factor analysis (APFA) and Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) to determine source contributions. The results from the three techniques were compared to identify the similarities and differences in the sources and source contributions. Source apportionment analysis indicated that PM₁₀ were mainly originated from natural sources (sea salt + crustal ≈ 60%) whilst secondary aerosols and residual oil burning accounted for approximately 20% and 10% of the total PM₁₀ mass, respectively. Calculations for sulfate showed that on average 8% and 12% of its total concentration were originated from sea salt and biogenic emissions, respectively. However, the contribution by biogenic emissions may reach up to a maximum of ~ 40% in the summer. Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF) analysis for identification of source regions showed that the Saharan desert was the main source area for crustal components. For secondary aerosol components the analysis revealed one source region, (i.e. the south-Eastern Black Sea), whereas for residual oil, Western Europe and the western Balkans areas were found to be the main source regions.     

Structural relationship between the Sea of Marmara Basin and the North Anatolian Fault Zone

The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) zone is 1500 km long, extending almost up to the Greek mainland in the west. It is a seismically active right-lateral strike-slip fault that accommodates the relative motion between the Turkish block and Black Sea plate. The Sea of Marmara lies along the western part of the NAF and shows evidence of subsidence. In this area pure strike-slip motion of the fault zone changes into extensional strike-slip movement that is responsible for the creation of the Sea of Marmara and the North Aegean basins. The northern half of the Sea of Marmara is interpreted as a large pull-apart basin. This basin is subdivided into three smaller basins separated by strike-slip fault segments of uplifted blocks NE-SW. Basinal areas are covered by horizontally layered sedimentary sequences. Uplifted blocks have undergone compressional stress. All the blocks are subsiding and are undergoing vertical motions and rotations relative to one another. The uplifted blocks exhibit positive Bouguer gravity anomalies. According to gravity interpretation, there is relative crustal thinning under the Sea of Marmara. The northern side of the Sea of Marmara is marked by a distinctive deep-rooted magnetic anomaly, which is dissected and shifted southward by strike-slip faulting. The southern shelf areas of the Sea of Marmara are dominated by short-wavelength magnetic anomalies of shallow origin.     

Geochemical and mantle-like isotopic (Nd, Sr) composition of the Baklan Granite from the Muratdağı Region (Banaz, Uşak), western Turkey: Implications for input of juvenile magmas in the source domains of western Anatolia Eocene–Miocene granites

The (late syn)- post-collisional magmatic activities of western and northwestern Anatolia are characterized by intrusion of a great number of granitoids. Amongst them, Baklan Granite, located in the southern part of the Muratdağı Region from the Menderes Massif (Banaz, Uşak), has peculiar chemical and isotopic characteristics. The Baklan rocks are made up by K-feldspar, plagioclase, quartz, biotite and hornblende, with accessory apatite, titanite and magnetite, and include mafic microgranular enclaves (MME). Chemically, the Baklan intrusion is of sub-alkaline character, belongs to the high-K, calc-alkaline series and displays features of I-type affinity. It is typically metaluminous to mildly peraluminous, and classified predominantly as granodiorite in composition. The spider and REE patterns show that the rocks are fractionated and have small negative Eu anomalies (Eu/Eu^* = 0.62–0.86), with the depletion of Nb, Ti, P and, to a lesser extent, Ba and Sr. The pluton was dated by the K–Ar method on the whole-rock, yielded ages between 17.8 ± 0.7 and 19.4 ± 0.9 Ma (Early Miocene). The intrusion possesses primitive low initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios (0.70331–0.70452) and negative ε_Nd(t) values (−5.0 to −5.6). The chemical contrast between evolved Baklan rocks (SiO₂, 62–71 wt.%; Cr, 7–27 ppm; Ni, 5–11 ppm; Mg#, 45–51) and more primitive clinopyroxene-bearing monzonitic enclaves (SiO₂, 54–59 wt.%; Cr, 20–310 ppm; Ni, 10–70 ppm; Mg#, 50–61) signifies that there is no co-genetic link between host granite and enclaves. The chemical and isotopic characteristics of the Baklan intrusion argue for an important role of a juvenile component, such as underplated mantle-derived basalt, in the generation of the granitoids. Crustal contamination has not contributed significantly to their origin. However, with respect to those of the Baklan intrusion, the generation of the (late syn)- post-collisional intrusions with higher Nd(t) values from the western Anatolia require a much higher amount of juvenil component in their source domains.     

Earthquake risk and its mitigation in Istanbul

Physical and societal vulnerability to earthquakes and expected physical, social, economic, and industrial losses in Istanbul are outlined. This risk quantification has served as the basis for the Earthquake Masterplan. Risk-mitigation activity that was, and is, being conducted by several agencies and in different context and sectors are elaborated.     

Development of a geotechnical and geophysical database for seismic zonation of the Ankara Basin,Turkey

The Kocaeli earthquake (M _w = 7.4) of 17 August 1999 occurred in the Eastern Marmara Region of Turkey along the North Anadolu Fault and resulted in a very serious loss of life and property. One of the most important geotechnical issues of this event was the permanent ground deformations because of both liquefaction and faulting. These deformations occurred particularly along the southern shores of ?zmit Bay and Sapanca Lake between the cities of Yalova and Adapazar? in the west and east, respectively. In this study, three sites founded on delta fans, namely De?irmendere Nose, Yeniköy tea garden at Seymen on the coast of ?zmit Bay, and Vak?f Hotel site on the coast of Sapanca Lake were selected as typical cases. The main causes of the ground deformations at these sites were then investigated. Geotechnical characterization of the ground, derivation of displacement vectors from the pre- and post-earthquake aerial photographs, liquefaction assessments based on field performance data, and analyses carried out using the sliding body method have been fundamental in this study. The displacement vectors determined from photogrammetric evaluations conducted at De?irmendere and Seymen showed a combined movement of faulting and liquefaction. But except the movements in the close vicinity of shorelines, the dominant factor in this movement was faulting. The results obtained from the analyses suggested that the ground failure at De?irmendere was a submarine landslide mainly because of earthquake shaking rather than liquefaction. On the other hand, the ground failures at the Yeniköy tea garden on the coast of Seymen and the hotel area in Sapanca town resulted from liquefaction-induced lateral spreading. It was also obtained that the ground deformations estimated from the sliding body method were quite close to those measured by aerial photogrammetry technique.     

Use of USLE/GIS technology integrated with geostatistics to assess soil erosion risk in different land uses of Indagi Mountain Pass—Çankırı, Turkey

The universal soil loss equation (USLE) is an erosion model to estimate average soil loss that would generally result from splash, sheet, and rill erosion from agricultural plots. Recently, use of USLE has been extended as a useful tool predicting soil losses and planning control practices by the effective integration of the GIS-based procedures to estimate the factor values on a grid cell basis. This study was performed for five different lands uses of Indağı Mountain Pass, Cankırı to predict the soil erosion risk by the USLE/GIS methodology for planning conservation measures in the site. Of the USLE factors, rainfall-runoff erosivity factor (USLE-R) and topographic factor (USLE-LS) were greatly involved in GIS. These were surfaced by correcting USLE-R site-specifically using DEM and climatic data and by evaluating USLE-LS by the flow accumulation tool using DEM and watershed delineation tool to consider the topographical and hydrological effects on the soil loss. The study assessed the soil erodibility factor (USLE-K) by randomly sampled field properties by geostatistical analysis. Crop management factor for different land-use/land cover type and land use (USLE-C) was assigned to the numerical values from crop and flora type, canopy and density of five different land uses, which are plantation, recreational land, cropland, forest and grassland, by means of reclassifying digital land use map available for the site. Support practice factor (USLE-P) was taken as a unit assuming no erosion control practices. USLE/GIS technology together with the geostatistics combined these major erosion factors to predict average soil loss per unit area per unit time. Resulting soil loss map revealed that spatial average soil loss in terms of the land uses were 1.99, 1.29, 1.21, 1.20, 0.89 t ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ for the cropland, grassland, recreation, plantation and forest, respectively. Since the rate of soil formation was expected to be so slow in Central Anatolia of Turkey and any soil loss of more than 1 ton ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ over 50–100 years was considered as irreversible for this region, soil erosion in the Indağı Mountain Pass, to the great extent, attained the irreversible state, and these findings should be very useful to take mitigation measures in the site.