Prediction of fog/visibility over India using NWP Model

Frequent occurrence of fog in different parts of northern India is common during the winter months of December and January. Low visibility conditions due to fog disrupt normal public life. Visibility conditions heavily affect both surface and air transport. A number of flights are either diverted or cancelled every year during the winter season due to low visibility conditions, experienced at different airports of north India. Thus, fog and visibility forecasts over plains of north India become very important during winter months. This study aims to understand the ability of a NWP model (NCMRWF, Unified Model, NCUM) with a diagnostic visibility scheme to forecast visibility over plains of north India. The present study verifies visibility forecasts obtained from NCUM against the INSAT-3D fog images and visibility observations from the METAR reports of different stations in the plains of north India. The study shows that the visibility forecast obtained from NCUM can provide reasonably good indication of the spatial extent of fog in advance of one day. The fog intensity is also predicted fairly well. The study also verifies the simple diagnostic model for fog which is driven by NWP model forecast of surface relative humidity and wind speed. The performance of NWP model forecast of visibility is found comparable to that from simple fog model driven by NWP forecast of relative humidity and wind speed.     

Mapping cropland fallow areas in myanmar to scale up sustainable intensification of pulse crops in the farming system

Cropland fallows are the next best-bet for intensification and extensification, leading to increased food production and adding to the nutritional basket. The agronomical suitability of these lands can decide the extent of usage of these lands. Myanmar’s agricultural land (over 13.8 Mha) has the potential to expand by another 50% into additional fallow areas. These areas may be used to grow short-duration pulses, which are economically important and nutritionally rich, and constitute the diets of millions of people as well as provide an important source of livestock feed throughout Asia. Intensifying rice fallows will not only improve the productivity of the land but also increase the income of the smallholder farmers. The enhanced cultivation of pulses will help improve nutritional security in Myanmar and also help conserve natural resources and reduce environmental degradation. The objectives of this study was to use remote sensing methods to identify croplands in Myanmar and cropland fallow areas in two important agro-ecological regions, delta and coastal region and the dry zone. The study used moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) 250-m, 16-day normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) maximum value composite (MVC), and land surface water index (LSWI) for one 1 year (1 June 2012–31 May 2013) along with seasonal field-plot level information and spectral matching techniques to derive croplands versus cropland fallows for each of the three seasons: the monsoon period between June and October; winter period between November and February; and summer period between March and May. The study showed that Myanmar had total net cropland area (TNCA) of 13.8 Mha. Cropland fallows during the monsoon season account for a meagre 2.4% of TNCA. However, in the winter season, 56.5% of TNCA (or 7.8 Mha) were classified as cropland fallows and during the summer season, 82.7% of TNCA (11.4 Mha) were cropland fallows. The producer’s accuracy of the cropland fallow class varied between 92 and 98% (errors of omission of 2 to 8%) and user’s accuracy varied between 82 and 92% (errors of commission of 8 to 18%) for winter and summer, respectively. Overall, the study estimated 19.2 Mha cropland fallows from the two major seasons (winter and summer). Out of this, 10.08 Mha has sufficient moisture (either from rainfall or stored soil water content) to grow short-season pulse crops. This potential with an estimated income of US$ 300 per hectare, if exploited sustainably, is estimated to bring an additional net income of about US$ 1.5 billion to Myanmar per year if at least half (5.04 Mha) of the total cropland fallows (10.08 Mha) is covered with short season pulses.     

A study of the seasonal migration of ITCZ and the quasi-periodic oscillations in a simple monsoon system using an energy balance model

Summary A zonally averaged global energy balance model with feedback mechanisms was constructed to simulate (i) the poleward limits of ITCZ over the continent and over the ocean and (ii) a simple monsoon system as a result of differential heating between the continent and the ocean. Three numerical experiments were performed with lower boundary as (1) global continent, (2) global ocean and (3) continent-ocean, with freezing latitudes near the poles. Over the continent, midlatitude deserts were found and the ITCZ migrates 25° north and south with seasons. Over a global swamp ocean results do not show migration of ITCZ with time but once the ocean currents are introduced the ITCZ migrates 5° north and south with seasons. It was found that the seasonal migration of ITCZ strongly depends on the meridional distribution of the surface temperature. It was also found that continent influences the location of the oceanic ITCZ. In the tropics northward progression of quasi-periodic oscillations called events are found during the pre- and post-monsoon periods with a period of 8 to 15 days. This result is consistent with the observed quasi-periodic oscillations in the tropical region. Northward propagation of the surface temperature perturbation appears to cause changes in the sensible heat flux which in turn causes perturbations in vertical velocity and latent heat flux fields.List of Symbols vertical average - ₀ zonal average - vertical mean of the zonal average - _0s zonal average at the surface - _0a zonal average at 500 mb level - latitude We now define the various symbols used in the model rate of atmospheric heating due to convective cloud formation (K/sec) - dp/dt (N/m²/sec) - density - potential temperature (K) - rate of rotation of the earth (rad/sec) - empirical constant - humidity mixing ratio - ^* saturated humidity mixing ratio - opacity of the atmosphere - ₁,₂ factors for downward and upward effective black body long wave radiation from the atmosphere - Stefan-Boltzmann constant - emissivity of the surface - _D subsurface temperature (K) - a specific volume - _0xs ,_0ys eastward and northward components of surface frictional stress - ^* vertical velocity at the top of the boundary layer (N/m²/sec) - P Thickness of the boundary layer (mb) - nondimensional function of pressure - P pressure - P _a pressure of the model atmosphere (N/m²) - P _s pressure at the surface (N/m²) - t time (sec) - U eastward wind speed (m/sec) - V northward wind speed (m/sec) - surface water availability - T absolute temperature (K) - heat addition due to water phase changes - g acceleration due to gravity (m²/sec) - a radius of the earth (m) - R gas constant for dry air (J/Kg/K) - C _p specific heat of air at constant pressure (J/Kg/K) - k R/C _p - L latent heat of condensation (J/Kg) - f coriolis parameter (rad/sec) - H _s H _0s ⁽¹⁾ +H _0s ⁽²⁾ +H _0s ⁽³⁾ +H _0s ⁽⁴⁾ +H _0s ⁽⁵⁾ (J/m²/Sec)=sum of the rates of vertical heat fluxes per unit surface area, directed toward the surface - H _a H _0a ⁽¹⁾ +H _0a ⁽²⁾ +H _0a ⁽³⁾ +H _0a ⁽⁴⁾ (J/m²/Sec)=sum of the rates of heat additions to the atmospheric column per unit horizontal area by all processes - H _0s ⁽¹⁾ ,H _0a ⁽¹⁾ heat flux due to short wave radiation - H _0s ⁽²⁾ ,H _0a ⁽²⁾ heat flux due to long wave radiation - H _0s ⁽³⁾ ,H _0a ⁽³⁾ heat flux due to small scale convection - H _0s ⁽⁴⁾ heat flux due to evaporation - H _0a ⁽⁴⁾ heat flux due to condensation - H _0s ⁽⁵⁾ heat flux due to subsurface conduction and convection - e ^* saturation vapor pressure - R solar constant (W/m²) - r _a albedo of the atmosphere - r _s albedo of the surface - b ₂ empirical constant (J/m²/sec) - c ₂ empirical constant (J/m²/sec) - e ₂ nondimensional empirical constant - f ₂ empirical constant (J/m₂/sec) - factor proportional to the conductive capacity of the surface medium - a _s constant used in Sellers model - b _s positive constant of proportionality used in the Sellers model (kg m²/J/sec²) - K _HT coefficient for eddy diffusivity of heat (m²/sec) - K _HE exchange coefficient for water vapor (m²/sec) - h depth of the water column (m) - z height (m) - V _0ws meridional component of surface current (m/sec) - n cloud amount - G _0,n long wave radiation form the atmosphere for cloud amount n (W/m²) - B ₀ long wave radiation from the surface (W/m²) - S _0,n short wave radiation from the atmosphere for cloud amount n (W/m²) - A _n albedo factor for a cloud amount n - R _f1 large scale rainfall (mm/day) - R _f2 small scale rainfall (mm/day) With 22 Figures     

Structure of the marine atmospheric boundary layer during two cold air outbreaks of varying intensities: GALE 86

Aircraft, surface, upper air and satellite measurements have been used to observe the evolution and growth of the convective Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer (MABL) offshore of North Carolina in close proximity to the Gulf Stream, during the intense cold air outbreak of 28 January 1986 and the moderate event of 12 February 1986, as part of the Genesis of Atlantic Lows Experiment (GALE). Air mass modification processes, driven primarily by the ocean-atmosphere exchanges of surface turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes, caused the overlying air mass to warm and moisten as it advected over the warmer waters of the eastern United States continental shelf. Maximum observed near-surface total heat fluxes were 1045 and 811 W·m^–2 over the core of the Gulf Stream, for 28 January and 12 February 1986, respectively. The observed changes in the overlying air mass occurred almost instantaneously as the ambient flow traversed different underlying SST conditions.The turbulent structure showed a buoyancy-dominated MABL below approximately 0.8z/h. However, shear was also observed to be an important production term above 0.8z/h and below 0.1z/h for the 28 January 1986 event. Dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy was the dominant destruction term in the budgets, but vertical transport of energy was a strong contributor below 0.5z/h, above which this term became a source of turbulent energy. Additionally, the normalized standard deviations of the horizontal velocity components showed a near-equal contribution to the turbulence, while the vertical velocity components displayed the characteristic mid-layer maximum profile observed for a convective, well-mixed boundary layer.     

A study of mean boundary-layer structures over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal during active and break monsoon periods

Observations from research ships which took part in the Indo-Soviet Monsoon Experiment of 1977 (MONSOON 77) and the International Monsoon Experiments (MONEX 79) over the central Arabian Sea and the north central Bay of Bengal were analyzed to study the mean wind and temperature structure of the monsoon boundary layer during active and break conditions. Mean profiles of wind speed and direction along with virtual potential temperature obtained by averaging data from several research ships during 1977 and 1979 indicate that onset conditions were associated with substantial increases in wind speed over the Arabian Sea and a shift to strong southwest flow. Monsoon onset was also characterized by near-neutral to slightly unstable temperature profiles in the lowest kilometer. Break conditions in 1977 in which the monsoon trough moved northward and substantial (5 mb) pressure rises were noted over the Arabian Sea show wind speeds typically decreasing from approximately 18 m s^–1 during active conditions to roughly 8 m s ^–1. Temperature profiles during break conditions are similar to those observed in pre-monsoon conditions in that the boundary layer is observed to be generally much more stable up to 900 mb. Above 900 mb, profiles of virtual potential temperature show little variation.Analysis of latent and sensible heat fluxes during June 1977 calculated by the bulk aerodynamic method indicates values of latent heat flux during active conditions to be roughly two to three times larger than those during break conditions. Sensible heat flux shows an increase from approximately 20 to 80 W m ^–1 during the onset of the monsoon. Surface fluxes of water vapor indicate the importance of water vapor transport over the ship observation region in the central Arabian Sea during active conditions. Onset of the monsoon over the Arabian Sea is accompanied by an increase in the surface moisture flux by a factor of about two. Time histories of precipitable water show decreases of approximately 15% from active to break periods.     

A second derivative method of resistivity sounding

The second vertical derivatives of gravity and magnetic potential are widely used in geophysical prospecting because of their better resolution. On the same basis an attempt has been made to obtain the expressions for the second vertical derivative of the electrical potential and to compute its nature for comparison. Derivative responses over a two-layered earth and also over an anticlinal structure have been computed and it is shown that the second vertical derivative sounding could be employed for greater accuracy in finding out the thickness of such beds or the inclination of the sides of the anticline and its depth when compared with normal resistivity sounding     

Factor analysis for revealing hydrochemical characteristics of a watershed

R mode factor analysis was carried out on 48 groundwater samples collected from the Chitravati river basin, a typical drought-prone area of Andhra Pradesh, India. The samples were chemically analyzed by using conventional techniques (the analyzed data have been further standardized, and eigen values and eigen vectors have been computed). The data have been put into four major factors and the subsurface geology of the region has been clearly brought out by these factors. The areas prone to salinity hazard, recharging, and nonrecharging zones have been established.     

HST UV measurements of wind structure and velocities in Local Group OB stars

Archival HST FOS and GHRS data sets have been used to collect ultraviolet evidence for large- and small-scale stellar wind structure in extragalactic Local Group OB stars (i.e. SMC, LMC including R136, M31, M33 and NGC 6822). By comparison with previous studies of Galactic OB stars, wind activity is principally diagnosed in individual spectrograms via the presence of 'narrow absorption components' and saturated 'black' absorption troughs in the resonance line doublets. Their characteristics broadly suggest that these stars share the same physical mechanisms for perturbing the winds as those that act in Galactic stars. Both of these spectral indicators are also used to provide reliable measures of wind terminal velocities. These velocities are directly compared with previously published Galactic values, without reliance on model profile fitting. Relative to Galactic OB stars, the most discrepant terminal velocities (and wind line profiles) result from main-sequence early O-type stars in the SMC.