A Conceptual Framework for Enhancing the Utility of Rainfall Hazard Forecasts for Agriculture in Marginal Environments

Semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas (especially in the tropics) are characterized by high inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability. Agriculture, which employs the bulk of the rapidly increasing populations, is largely rain-fed, low-input based and highly resource dependent. Recent spates of drought have, therefore, exacerbated the now-too-familiar specter of famine and starvation in these areas with glaring examples being the recurring episodes in sub-Saharan Africa since the great Sahel drought of 1969–1973. A great need for accurate and timely hazard forecast products in aid of agriculture thus exists.Several schemes are currently employed by various agencies around the globe in this direction. There does remain, however, a gap between product provision and user expectations. This paper examines this gap suggesting a five-point framework within which it can be addressed as an action agenda for the climate science community. The paper posits that changes are possible to existing methodologies (related to three of these points), which, within the context of current science, can greatly enhance the utility of forecast products for agriculture in marginal areas. The remaining two points have, however, been identified as requiring additional applied research and necessary pointers for addressing these issues are provided. First is the need for appropriate impact-related indicators for intra-seasonal and interannual rainfall variability that are easy to compute, amenable to forecasting and follow closely the experiences of farmers in marginal areas. The second is a consideration of appropriate forecast information formatting and communication medium that guarantee effective feedback between forecast producers and users. Specific examples of the status quo and of work currently underway are cited from southern Africa – a region currently attracting international attention as a result of recent droughts and the threat of famine.     

Detrital zircon U–Pb geochronology of a Cenozoic foreland basin in Northeast India: Implications for zircon provenance during the collision of the Indian and Asian plates

Geochronology is useful for understanding provenance, and while it has been applied to the central and western Himalaya, very little data are available in the eastern Himalaya. This study presents detrital zircon U–Pb ages from the late Palaeocene–Eocene Yinkiong Group in NE India. The samples are from the late Palaeocene to early Eocene Lower Yinkiong Formation, and the Upper Yinkiong Formation deposited during the early to mid‐Eocene within the Himalayan foreland basin. The U–Pb ages of the detrital zircon within the Lower Yinkiong Formation are older than late Palaeozoic, with a cratonic and early Himalayan Thrust Belt affinity, whereas the Cenozoic grains in the Upper Yinkiong Formation indicate a Himalayan Thrust Belt source and possibly a granitic body within the Asian plate. The shift of the sources and the changes in the foreland basin system strongly suggest that the India–Asia collision in the Eastern Himalaya began before or immediately after the deposition of the Upper Yinkiong Formation, i.e., within the early Eocene (c. 56 to 50 Ma).     

Structural styles,hydrocarbon prospects,and potential in the Salt Range and Potwar Plateau,north Pakistan

The Salt Range/Potwar Plateau (SRPP) is part of the Himalayan foreland and an important petroleum province in north Pakistan. The hydrocarbons are commonly produced from stacked Cambrian to Eocene clastic and carbonate reservoirs which have an average thickness of 1 km. These strata are overlain by at least 5 km of Miocene and younger continental molasse sedimentation in the deepest part of the foreland basin. Surface and subsurface (seismic interpretations and borehole data) geology combined with the timing and the patterns of sedimentation has allowed to interpret the deformation as thin skinned, with a detachment in weak Eocambrian evaporates and the development of ramp-and-flat structures, since about 8 Ma. We have reviewed the structural interpretations with new borehole logs, field geology, and reserve estimates in this paper to precisely define oil-field structures with a view on future exploration. As a result of this work, 12 oil fields are classified as three detachment folds, four fault-propagation folds, four pop-ups, and one triangle zone structure. The latter two are identified as better prospects with the last one as the best with estimated reserves of 51 million barrels of oil (MMBO). Hence, the triangle zones along with other ramp-and-flat structures from the North Potwar Deformed Zone (NPDZ) are recognized to provide potential future prospects. Finally, a 40-km-long structural cross section from NPDZ is used to discuss complex deformation of the triangle zone and duplex structures as future potential prospects. About 55 km of shortening across the NPDZ during Plio-Pleistocene time is calculated, which has important bearing on the geometry of prospects, reserve calculations, and the future exploration.     

Simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation for tidal models

The Dutch continental shelf model (DCSM) is a shallow sea model of entire continental shelf which is used operationally in the Netherlands to forecast the storm surges in the North Sea. The forecasts are necessary to support the decision of the timely closure of the moveable storm surge barriers to protect the land. In this study, an automated model calibration method, simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) is implemented for tidal calibration of the DCSM. The method uses objective function evaluations to obtain the gradient approximations. The gradient approximation for the central difference method uses only two objective function evaluation independent of the number of parameters being optimized. The calibration parameter in this study is the model bathymetry. A number of calibration experiments is performed. The effectiveness of the algorithm is evaluated in terms of the accuracy of the final results as well as the computational costs required to produce these results. In doing so, comparison is made with a traditional steepest descent method and also with a newly developed proper orthogonal decomposition-based calibration method. The main findings are: (1) The SPSA method gives comparable results to steepest descent method with little computational cost. (2) The SPSA method with little computational cost can be used to estimate large number of parameters.     

Manoeuvring prediction of pusher barge in deep and shallow water

This paper presents an experimental investigation on the manoeuvring characteristics of a pusher-barge system for deep (H/d>3) and shallow water (H/d=1.3) condition. Since, the operation of pusher-barge mainly concentrates on confined waters, there is a need to predict and analyze the manoeuvring characteristic of the system for a safe and acceptable performance. A time domain simulation programme was developed for this purpose. A series of model experiments were carried out to determine the hydrodynamic coefficients using a planar motion mechanism (PMM). The time domain simulation shows the manoeuvring characteristic in the form of turning circle trajectories and zig-zag manoeuvre based on the hydrodynamic coefficients, which were derived based on experimental results. The manoeuvring characteristics in shallow and deep water conditions were compared through the simulation results. A comparison of simulation results based on experimental and empirical driven coefficients for both conditions shows that the experimental coefficients gave better manoeuvring characteristics for both turning circle trajectories and zig-zag manoeuvre.     

Reservoir Quality Assessment of the Upper Permian Chhidru Formation,Salt and Surghar Ranges,Pakistan

The Late Permian succession of the Upper Indus Basin in northeastern Pakistan is represented by the carbonate-dominated Zaluch Group, which consists of the Amb, Wargal and Chhidru formations, which accumulated on the southwestern shelf of the Paleo-Tethys Ocean, north of the hydrocarbon-producing Permian strata of the Arabian Peninsula. The reservoir properties of the mixed clastic-carbonate Chhidru Formation (CFm) are evaluated based on petrography, using scanning electron microscopy (SEM), energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy (EDX) and x-ray diffraction (XRD) techniques. The diagenetic features are recognized, ranging from marine (isopachous fibrous calcite, micrite), through meteoric (blocky calcite-I, neomorphism and dissolution) to burial (poikilotopic cement, blocky calcite-II-III, fractures, fracture-filling, and stylolites). Major porosity types include fracture and moldic, while inter- and intra-particle porosities also exist. Observed visual porosity ranges from 1.5%–7.14% with an average of 5.15%. The sandstone facies (CMF-4) has the highest average porosity of 10.7%, whereas the siliciclastic grainstone microfacies (CMF-3) shows an average porosity of 5.3%. The siliciclastic mudstone microfacies (CMF-1) and siliciclastic wacke-packestone microfacies (CMF-2) show the lowest porosities of 4.8% and 5.0%, respectively. Diagenetic processes like cementation, neomorphism, stylolitization and compaction have reduced the primary porosities; however, processes of dissolution and fracturing have produced secondary porosity. On average, the CFm in the Nammal Gorge, Salt Range shows promise and at Gula Khel Gorge, Trans-Indus, the lowest porosity.     

P-wave minimum 1D velocity model for central and northern Pakistan

Journal of Seismology - We present a P-wave minimum 1D velocity model for central and northern Pakistan along with station delays. The velocity model and appropriate station delays are obtained...