Building resilience to natural hazards in Indonesia: progress and challenges in implementing the Hyogo Framework for Action

Over the last 50?years, the cost of natural disasters has increased globally and in Indonesia (EM-DAT 2012). We therefore need more systematic efforts in trying to reduce disaster risks. In 2005, the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction created the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) 2005?C2015: ??Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities??, in order to enable a more systematic planning, implementation and evaluation of disaster risk reduction (DRR) activities. In this paper, we examine Indonesia??s success in improving DRR by reviewing the country??s progress in implementing the HFA Priorities for Actions. This includes an analysis of the drivers, challenges and emerging issues in building resilience to natural hazards. The study is undertaken through literature reviews and interviews with 26 representatives of key organisations in DRR and climate change adaptation (CCA) in Indonesia. Our findings indicate that the building disaster resilience in Indonesia has been, to a large extent, driven by the existence of the necessary regulatory policies and frameworks and the participation of various non-government stakeholders. Impediments to process include a lack of capacity and capability for DRR at the local government level, a lack of systematic learning and a lack of commitment from government to mainstream DRR into broader development agendas. Emerging pressing issues that are likely to challenge future resilience building activities include the integration of DRR and CCA and urban risk governance.     

A comprehensive study on the surface chemistry of particulate matter collected from Jeddah,Saudi Arabia

In this work, the X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS) technique is utilized to analyze the surface chemical composition of particulate matter (PM) which was collected from various locations at Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The main elements found on the surface of PM are carbon (C), oxygen (O) and silicon (Si) with combined percentage of 89.4–94.9 while traces of nitrogen (N), calcium (Ca), aluminum (Al), sodium (Na), chlorine (Cl), manganese (Mg), and sulfur (S) were also present. The analyzed XPS chemical state of C, O and Si was further used to determine their bonding with other elements occurring over the surface of PM. Carbon was found in the form of carbides (18.86%), fluorides (2.39%) and carbonates (78.75%); oxygen was observed as oxides (21.05%) and hydroxides (73.42%) of other metals; and silicon was detected as silicones (12.16%), nitrides (82.53%) and silicates (5.25%). The particle size of a PM is also of great concern for health issues, and thus has been investigated by the Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscope (FESEM). The Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy (EDS) was employed for cross verification of detected elements by XPS.     

Hydrochemistry and pollution probability of selected sites along the Euphrates River, Western Iraq

The hydrochemistry of Euphrates River in the study area which extended from Hit to Al-Saqlawia was studied in order to determine the physical, chemical, and biological properties in addition to the radiation level. Thirty-one stations along the Euphrates River were chosen, 17 of them represented the Euphrates River itself, whereas the other stations are considered as point pollution sources which all empty their load directly in the Euphrates River with an average total discharge of 32 m³/s. Twenty-eight samples of the Euphrates water of both high- and low-flow periods were analyzed for cations (Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Na⁺, and K⁺), anions (SO ₄ ⁼ , Cl^?, CO ₃ ⁼ , HCO ₃ ^? , NO ₃ ^? , PO ₄ ^?3 ), H₂S boron, dissolved oxygen, biological oxygen demand, bacteriological tests, radiation levels in addition to physical parameters such as hydrogen number (pH), total dissolved solid, electrical conductivity, total suspended solid, and temperature. This study showed that the cations and anions during periods of high and low flows are within acceptable limit with exceptional Cl^?. Hydrochemical formula during the high flow was Na-Ca-Mg-Cl-SO₄, then it changed into Na-Ca-Mg-HCO3-SO₄-Cl during the low-flow period. The average output cations and anions at downstream (Saqlawiya area) was relatively higher than those of input at upstream (Hit area); this attributed to the natural and anthropogenic activities originated mainly from agricultural activity and population communities around the river. Radiation level for ²¹²Pb, ²¹⁴Pb, ⁴⁰k, ²²⁰Ac, and ²¹⁴Bi showed that the higher level of radiation is concentrated within sediment rather than in water, but the radiation in both is within acceptable limit.     

A long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regions of Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole

A long-term (1948 to 2012) trend of precipitation (annual, pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon seasons) in Bangladesh was analyzed in different regions using both parametric and nonparametric approaches. Moreover, the possible teleconnections of precipitation (annual and monsoon) variability with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episode and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) were investigated using both average and individual (both positive and negative) values of ENSO index and IOD. Our findings suggested that for annual precipitation, a significant increasing monotonic trend was found in whole Bangladesh (4.87 mm/year), its western region (5.82 mm/year) including Rangpur (9.41 mm/year) and Khulna (4.95 mm/year), and Sylhet (10.12 mm/year) and Barisal (6.94 mm/year) from eastern region. In pre-monsoon, only Rangpur (2.88 mm/year) showed significant increasing trend, while in monsoon, whole Bangladesh (3.04 mm/year), Sylhet (7.17 mm/year), and Barisal (6.94 mm/year) showed similar trend. In post-monsoon, there was no significant trend. Our results also revealed that the precipitation (annual or monsoon) of whole Bangladesh and almost all of the spatial regions did not show any significant correlation with ENSO events, whereas the average IOD values showed significant correlation only in monsoon precipitation of western region. The individual positive IODs showed significant correlation in whole Bangladesh, western region, and its two divisions (Rajshahi and Khulna). So, in the context of Bangladesh climate, IOD has the more teleconnection to precipitation than that of ENSO. Our findings indicate that the co-occurrence of ENSO and IOD events may suppress their influence on each other.

     

Landslide dam and subsequent dam-break flood estimation using HEC-RAS model in Northern Pakistan

On the morning of January 4, 2010, a massive landslide swept the Attabad and Sarat villages into the Hunza River. The debris from the landslide blocked the low-lying river, creating a barrier lake in the area and poses a major threat to the villages located downstream. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the environmental advantages and disadvantages created by the formation of the artificial lake. For this purpose, Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) data were used to create the contours and triangulated irregular network (TIN) of the region. Data from ??Google Earth?? image on March 19, 2010 were used as the reference and to determine the river bed elevation of the study area. Landsat satellite data of Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) sensor on January 10, March 15, April 24 and May 2, 2010, were used for constructing the Geographic Information System (GIS) layers of the river banks, land use area, overbank flow area and water area estimation. Our results show that the area covered by the water in the lake has increased from 1.28?km² on January 10, 2010 to 6.25?km² on May 2, 2010. The total upstream urban area affected by the river blockage is 13.99?km². We also applied the Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model to estimate the potential catastrophes due to dam burst for different peak outflow scenarios with conclusions and recommendations.     

Adaptive state estimation of groundwater contaminant boundary input flux in a 2-dimensional aquifer

In many circumstances involving heat and mass transfer issues,it is considered impractical to measure the input flux and the resulting state distribution in the domain.Therefore,the need to develop techniques to provide solutions for such problems and estimate the inverse mass flux becomes imperative.Adaptive state estimator(ASE)is increasingly becoming a popular inverse estimation technique which resolves inverse problems by incorporating the semi-Markovian concept into a Bayesian estimation technique,thereby developing an inverse input and state estimator consisting of a bank of parallel adaptively weighted Kalman filters.The ASE is particularly designed for a system that encompasses independent unknowns and/or random switching of input and measurement biases.The present study describes the scheme to estimate the groundwater input contaminant flux and its transient distribution in a conjectural two-dimensional aquifer by means of ASE,which in particular is because of its unique ability to efficiently handle the process noise giving an estimation of keeping the relative error range within 10%in 2-dimensional problems.Numerical simulation results show that the proposed estimator presents decent estimation performance for both smoothly and abruptly varying input flux scenarios.Results also show that ASE enjoys a better estimation performance than its competitor,Recursive Least Square Estimator(RLSE)due to its larger error tolerance in greater process noise regimes.ASE's inherent deficiency of being slower than the RLSE,resulting from the complexity of algorithm,was also noticed.The chosen input scenarios are tested to calculate the effect of input area and both estimators show improved results with an increase in input flux area especially as sensors are moved closer to the assumed input location.     

Characterization of locally available soil as a liner material for solid waste landfills in Sri Lanka

This study aimed to develop a low-cost and effective clay liner material for solid waste landfills in Sri Lanka. A locally available clayey soil and its admixtures with 5 and 10% bentonite were examined for this purpose. Laboratory experiments to determine soil plasticity and swell index were carried out on the tested samples. Hydraulic conductivity (k) tests were carried out in the laboratory using water and an aqueous solution of CaCl₂ on unconsolidated samples prepared by either dry or slurry packing and pre-consolidated samples with five different consolidation pressures (p) from 10 to 200 kPa. Measured liquid limits for tested admixtures increased with increasing bentonite contents and correlated well with measured values of the swell index. The difference in permeant solutions had little effect on measured k values for both unconsolidated and pre-consolidated samples. The hydraulic conductivities were highly affected by changing p, i.e., the k values decreased on two orders of magnitude as p increased from 10 to 200 kPa. The Kozeny–Carman equation, a theoretical permeability model that expresses the k-porosity relationship, was applied to measured data including reported values. Results showed the Kozeny–Carman equation captured well the porosity-dependent k values for tested soils and their admixtures with bentonite under a wide range of void ratios, suggesting that the Kozeny–Carman equation is a useful tool to estimate the magnitude of k values for differently compacted soil and its bentonite admixtures.     

软弱泥质砂岩地层中输水隧洞稳定性研究

泥质砂岩属于黏土岩,具有典型的遇水软化特征。在泥质砂岩富水地层中进行隧道开挖是地下工程的一个挑战性问题。研究了围岩软化与未软化条件下泥质砂岩地层中输水隧洞的稳定性和支护时间。首先,介绍了泥质砂岩遇水软化的力学试验结果;然后,采用基于Hoek-Brown强度准则的岩体参数评价方法,评估泥质砂岩在围岩软化与未软化条件下的力学参数;再后,以兰州水源地引水隧洞为依托工程,采用数值模拟方法对泥质砂岩隧洞软化与未软化工况的围岩稳定性进行了计算分析,得出泥质砂岩遇水软化对隧洞安全性存在显著影响;最后,采用位移收敛法,研究了泥质砂岩软化与未软化工况中,保障隧洞施工安全的合理支护时机。研究表明,泥质砂岩未软化工况中,可考虑隧道围岩初期支护在距掌子面4～5 m位置实施;而在泥质砂岩遇水软化工况中,初期支护建议在掌子面开挖后立刻支护。研究成果可为泥质砂岩地层隧洞的安全施工提供依据。     

Integrated stratigraphy and palaeoenvironment of the P/E boundary interval, Rakhi Nala section, Indus Basin (Pakistan)

Marine sedimentary section across the Paleocene/Eocene (P/E) boundary interval is preserved in the Dungan Formation (Lower Indus Basin), Pakistan. Four dinoflagellate zones in the P/E interval of the Rakhi Nala section (Lower Indus Basin) are identified and correlated. The quantitative analysis of the dinoflagellate cyst assemblages together with geochemical data are used to reconstruct the palaeoenvironment across the P/E interval. The dinocyst assemblages allow the local correlation of the Dungan Formation (part) of the Sulaiman Range with the Patala Formation (part) of the Upper Indus Basin and global correlation of the Zone Pak-DV with the Apectodinium acme Zone of the Northern and Southern hemispheres. The onset of the carbon isotopic excursion (CIE) associated with Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is used globally to identify the P/E boundary. The CIE for the total organic carbon (fine fraction) δ¹³C_FF is of a magnitude of ?1.7‰ is recorded for the first time in the Indus Basin. The Apectodinium acme precedes and straddles the onset of the CIE in the Indus Basin. This Apectodinium acme is also accompanied by a planktonic and benthonic foraminifera “barren zone.” The CIE in the Indus Basin, coupled with the changes in the dinocyst distribution and the benthonic and planktonic foraminifera assemblages, provides evidence of the changes associated with the PETM in this little-known part of the world. The benthonic foraminiferal assemblage indicates bathyal environment of deposition at the time of P/E boundary interval; the presence of dominantly open marine dinoflagellates and high planktonic foraminiferal ratio suggest that the water column at this site was well connected with the rest of the Tethys.