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141.
A Conceptual Framework for Enhancing the Utility of Rainfall Hazard Forecasts for Agriculture in Marginal Environments 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Muhammad?T.?UsmanEmail author Emma?Archer Peter?Johnston Mark?Tadross 《Natural Hazards》2005,34(1):111-129
Semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas (especially in the tropics) are characterized by high inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability. Agriculture, which employs the bulk of the rapidly increasing populations, is largely rain-fed, low-input based and highly resource dependent. Recent spates of drought have, therefore, exacerbated the now-too-familiar specter of famine and starvation in these areas with glaring examples being the recurring episodes in sub-Saharan Africa since the great Sahel drought of 1969–1973. A great need for accurate and timely hazard forecast products in aid of agriculture thus exists.Several schemes are currently employed by various agencies around the globe in this direction. There does remain, however, a gap between product provision and user expectations. This paper examines this gap suggesting a five-point framework within which it can be addressed as an action agenda for the climate science community. The paper posits that changes are possible to existing methodologies (related to three of these points), which, within the context of current science, can greatly enhance the utility of forecast products for agriculture in marginal areas. The remaining two points have, however, been identified as requiring additional applied research and necessary pointers for addressing these issues are provided. First is the need for appropriate impact-related indicators for intra-seasonal and interannual rainfall variability that are easy to compute, amenable to forecasting and follow closely the experiences of farmers in marginal areas. The second is a consideration of appropriate forecast information formatting and communication medium that guarantee effective feedback between forecast producers and users. Specific examples of the status quo and of work currently underway are cited from southern Africa – a region currently attracting international attention as a result of recent droughts and the threat of famine. 相似文献
142.
Upendra Baral Ding Lin Tapos Kumar Goswami Mondip Sarma Muhammad Qasim Devojit Bezbaruah 《地学学报》2019,31(1):18-27
Geochronology is useful for understanding provenance, and while it has been applied to the central and western Himalaya, very little data are available in the eastern Himalaya. This study presents detrital zircon U–Pb ages from the late Palaeocene–Eocene Yinkiong Group in NE India. The samples are from the late Palaeocene to early Eocene Lower Yinkiong Formation, and the Upper Yinkiong Formation deposited during the early to mid‐Eocene within the Himalayan foreland basin. The U–Pb ages of the detrital zircon within the Lower Yinkiong Formation are older than late Palaeozoic, with a cratonic and early Himalayan Thrust Belt affinity, whereas the Cenozoic grains in the Upper Yinkiong Formation indicate a Himalayan Thrust Belt source and possibly a granitic body within the Asian plate. The shift of the sources and the changes in the foreland basin system strongly suggest that the India–Asia collision in the Eastern Himalaya began before or immediately after the deposition of the Upper Yinkiong Formation, i.e., within the early Eocene (c. 56 to 50 Ma). 相似文献
143.
144.
Ishtiaq?A.?K.?JadoonEmail author Matthias?Hinderer Beenish?Wazir Rizwan?Yousaf Sher?Bahadar Muhammad?Hassan Zeeshan-ul-Hassan?Abbasi Sidra?Jadoon 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2015,8(7):5111-5125
The Salt Range/Potwar Plateau (SRPP) is part of the Himalayan foreland and an important petroleum province in north Pakistan. The hydrocarbons are commonly produced from stacked Cambrian to Eocene clastic and carbonate reservoirs which have an average thickness of 1 km. These strata are overlain by at least 5 km of Miocene and younger continental molasse sedimentation in the deepest part of the foreland basin. Surface and subsurface (seismic interpretations and borehole data) geology combined with the timing and the patterns of sedimentation has allowed to interpret the deformation as thin skinned, with a detachment in weak Eocambrian evaporates and the development of ramp-and-flat structures, since about 8 Ma. We have reviewed the structural interpretations with new borehole logs, field geology, and reserve estimates in this paper to precisely define oil-field structures with a view on future exploration. As a result of this work, 12 oil fields are classified as three detachment folds, four fault-propagation folds, four pop-ups, and one triangle zone structure. The latter two are identified as better prospects with the last one as the best with estimated reserves of 51 million barrels of oil (MMBO). Hence, the triangle zones along with other ramp-and-flat structures from the North Potwar Deformed Zone (NPDZ) are recognized to provide potential future prospects. Finally, a 40-km-long structural cross section from NPDZ is used to discuss complex deformation of the triangle zone and duplex structures as future potential prospects. About 55 km of shortening across the NPDZ during Plio-Pleistocene time is calculated, which has important bearing on the geometry of prospects, reserve calculations, and the future exploration. 相似文献
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147.
Nirmala D. Desouza Baby Simon Muhammad S. Qureshi 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2011,114(3-4):107-121
The evolutionary characteristics of a dust storm over Oman on 2 February 2008 were studied by analyzing the weather associated with it. The National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis wind flow pattern at 1,000?hPa showed a clockwise and outward wind flow pattern over the study region, a manifestation of a high-pressure cold air mass. In addition, ground truth observations for surface temperature and surface winds showed cold northerly winds until the early morning of 2 February 2008. A strong wind shear resulted from differences in wind speed between warm air and trapped cold air. This vertical wind shear enhanced instability. Furthermore, the weakening of the inversion in the lower troposphere and the formation of a mixed layer due to transfer of horizontal momentum from upper air towards the surface led to strong surface winds. These strong winds lifted a large amount of dust particles off the ground, resulting in the dust event of 2 February 2008. 相似文献
148.
Muhammad Ilyas Agus Sudaryanto Iwan Eka Setiawan Tomohiko Isobe Shin Takahashi 《Marine pollution bulletin》2011,62(1):89-98
A total of 33 surficial sediments from riverine and coastal waters from Surabaya, Indonesia were analyzed for PCBs and BFRs. Concentrations of PCBs (62 congeners), PBDEs (14 congeners) and HBCDs (3 isomers) varied from <DL-420, <DL-35 and <DL-5.4 ng g−1 dw, respectively. Higher concentrations of these compounds were found in riverine than coastal sediments. Their levels and distribution were influenced by proximity to the point sources and TOC. The predominant congeners were CB-153, -28, -138, -149, -180, -33 and BDE-209, -207, -206, -197, -196, -183, -99, -47 for PCBs and PBDEs, respectively, and γ-isomer for HBCDs. Debromination of BDE-209 might be taking place producing lower toxic congeners in sediment. Levels of PCBs in riverine sediments were comparable with some polluted areas worldwide, but PBDEs and HBCDs were lower. Hazard assessment of PCBs indicated possible toxic potential, particularly in areas close to point sources. 相似文献
149.
Muhammad Umer Altaf Arnold W. Heemink Martin Verlaan Ibrahim Hoteit 《Ocean Dynamics》2011,61(8):1093-1105
The Dutch continental shelf model (DCSM) is a shallow sea model of entire continental shelf which is used operationally in
the Netherlands to forecast the storm surges in the North Sea. The forecasts are necessary to support the decision of the
timely closure of the moveable storm surge barriers to protect the land. In this study, an automated model calibration method,
simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) is implemented for tidal calibration of the DCSM. The method uses
objective function evaluations to obtain the gradient approximations. The gradient approximation for the central difference
method uses only two objective function evaluation independent of the number of parameters being optimized. The calibration
parameter in this study is the model bathymetry. A number of calibration experiments is performed. The effectiveness of the
algorithm is evaluated in terms of the accuracy of the final results as well as the computational costs required to produce
these results. In doing so, comparison is made with a traditional steepest descent method and also with a newly developed
proper orthogonal decomposition-based calibration method. The main findings are: (1) The SPSA method gives comparable results
to steepest descent method with little computational cost. (2) The SPSA method with little computational cost can be used
to estimate large number of parameters. 相似文献
150.
Geochemical characterisation of 18 crude oils from the Potwar Basin (Upper Indus), Pakistan is carried out in this study. Their relative thermal maturities, environment of deposition, source of organic matter (OM) and the extent of biodegradation based on the hydrocarbon (HC) distributions are investigated. A detailed oil-oil correlation of the area is established. Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) analyses and bulk stable carbon and hydrogen isotopic compositions of saturated and aromatic HC fractions reveals three compositional groups of oils. Most of the oils from the basin are typically generated from shallow marine source rocks. However, group A contains terrigenous OM deposited under highly oxic/fluvio-deltaic conditions reflected by high pristane/phytane (Pr/Ph), C30 diahopane/C29Ts, diahopane/hopane and diasterane/sterane ratios and low dibenzothiophene (DBT)/phenanthrene (P) ratios. The abundance of C19-tricyclic and C24-tetracyclic terpanes are consistent with a predominant terrigenous OM source for group A. Saturated HC biomarker parameters from the rest of the oils show a predominant marine origin, however groups B and C are clearly separated by bulk δ13C and δD and the distributions of the saturated HC fractions supporting variations in source and environment of deposition of their respective source rocks. Moreover, various saturated HC biomarker ratios such as steranes/hopanes, diasteranes/steranes, C23-tricyclic/C30 hopane, C28-tricyclic/C30 hopane, total tricyclic terpanes/hopanes and C31(R + S)/C30 hopane show that two different groups are present. These biomarker ratios show that group B oils are generated from clastic-rich source rocks deposited under more suboxic depositional environments compared to group C oils. Group C oils show a relatively higher input of algal mixed with terrigenous OM, supported by the abundance of extended tricyclic terpanes (up to C41+) and steranes.Biomarker thermal maturity parameters mostly reached to their equilibrium values indicating that the source rocks for Potwar Basin oils must have reached the early to peak oil generation window, while aromatic HC parameters suggest up to late oil window thermal maturity. The extent of biodegradation of the Potwar Basin oils is determined using various saturated HC parameters and variations in bulk properties such as API gravity. Groups A and C oils are not biodegraded and show mature HC profiles, while some of the oils from group B show minor levels of biodegradation consistent with high Pr/n-C17, Ph/n-C18 and low API gravities. 相似文献