A Nonlinear Representation of Model Uncertainty in a Convective-Scale Ensemble Prediction System

How to accurately address model uncertainties with consideration of the rapid nonlinear error growth characteristics in a convection-allowing system is a crucial issue for performing convection-scale ensemble forecasts. In this study, a new nonlinear model perturbation technique for convective-scale ensemble forecasts is developed to consider a nonlinear representation of model errors in the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System(GRAPES)Convection-Allowing Ensemble Predi...     

The REM Adjoint System and Its 4DVar Data Assimilation Experiments

The Regional Eta-coordinate Model(REM) has performed well in forecasting heavy rainfalls in China in recent years.A four-dimensional variational assimilation system(4DVar) is developed to improve the forecast skill of the REM.The tangent linear model and adjoint model codes are written according to thecode to coderule,and the establishment of the REM adjoint modeling system is introduced in detail in this paper.The tangent linear and adjoint models of the REM are validated against the observational data,...     

The response of vegetation at the end of the last glacial period (MIS 3 and MIS 2) in littoral areas of NW Iberia

This paper describes and discusses the palaeobotanical data obtained from organic levels of two exposed deposits on the Atlantic shore of the northwestern Iberian Peninsula. Radiocarbon dating assigns these levels to a period of marine regression at the end of MIS 3 and the beginning of the Last Glacial Maximum. The pollen record shows an initial predominance of tree taxa (mainly deciduous, including the presence of Fagus far from its current limit), followed by an episode of partial forest retraction related to the end of MIS 3 and the beginning of the Last Glacial Maximum. However, the presence of numerous tree taxa in the record, even during the cold intervals associated with Heinrich events, points to the existence of sheltered refugia for these species during this period, in keeping with the conclusions of recent reviews of the vegetation dynamics of this region for the Lateglacial and the Holocene.     

黔南桂西早中三叠世碳酸盐台地边缘和斜坡沉积模式及其演化

黔南桂西地区(东经105°-107°,北纬24°20＇-26°40＇)地跨扬子准地台和加里东褶皱带(华南褶皱带)两个一级大地构造单元。属于南盘江沉积盆地的北部或西北边缘。区内早、中三叠世碳酸盐地层出露良好、层序完整,为台地边缘和斜坡沉积。详细研究该区碳酸盐台地边缘和斜坡沉积,对了解台地边缘特征和演化、海平面变化以及边缘的构造作用等有着重要的理论意义,为确定三叠糸南盘江沉积盆地的西北或北部边缘的构造性质提供可靠的沉积学依据。     

哈密盆地区域地貌的基本特征

本文对哈密盆地的现代地貌进行了成因分类，并系统地讨论了地貌结构特征，同时结合灾害地貌过程和资源特点提出了合理利用资源的几点意见。     

人机联作重磁资料解释方法的研究

人机联作模拟反演可以充分利用一些已知的地质地球物理信息,充分发挥人的智能作用,提高地质解释效果。本文利用二度、二度半多边型重磁模型,在IBM微机上初步实现了重磁人机联作解释系统。     

黄河1922～1932年连续11年枯水段的分析研究

本文根据大量实测及历史资料,论证了黄河上游存在与中游同步的1922～1932年连续11年枯水段,该枯水段的出现机率为200年一遇。建议以1951～1975年水文系列作为黄河水资源规划和水利计算的代表系列。     

Criteria for the nonlinear stability of three—dimensional quasi—geostrophic motions

Some more proper criteria for the nonlinear stability of three-dimensional quasi-geostrophic motions are given by combining variational principle with a prior estimates method. The criteria are suitable for perturbations of initial condition as well as parameters in the model. The basic flow can be steady or unsteady. Particularly the difficulty due to the nonlinear boundary condition is completely overcome by the use of our method.     

用大地测量资料反演滇西地震预报实验场断裂带的活动段

本文根据滇西地震预报实验场的部分大地测量资料应用反演方法研究了区内活动断裂带的现今活动段。结合地震活动和地震地质资料对地震危险区作了进一步的估计。     

有限元素法全倾角波动方程偏移

本文试图从两个方面提高波动方程偏移的效果:1.使用全方向波动方程进行偏移,使之适用于任意倾角界面的反射;2.使用有限元素法提高微分方程数值解法的精度。