Streamflow regimes of the Yanhe River under climate and land use change,Loess Plateau,China

Soil and water conservation measures including terracing, afforestation, construction of sediment‐trapping dams, and the ‘Grain for Green Program’ have been extensively implemented in the Yanhe River watershed, of the Loess Plateau, China, over the last six decades, and have resulted in large‐scale land use and land cover changes. This study examined the trends and shifts in streamflow regime over the period of 1953–2010 and relates them to changes in land use and soil and water conservation and to the climatic factors of precipitation and air temperature. The non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test and the Pettitt test were used to identify trends and shifts in streamflow and base flow. A method based on precipitation and potential evaporation was used to evaluate the impacts of climate variability and changes in non‐climate factors changes on annual streamflow. A significant decrease (p = 0.01) in annual streamflow was observed related to a significant change point in 1996, mostly because of significant decreases in streamflow (p = 0.01) in the July to September periods in subsequent years. The annual base flow showed no significant trend from 1953 to 2010 and no change point year, mostly because there were no significant seasonal trends, except for significant decreases (p = 0.05) in the July to September periods. There was no significant trend for precipitation over the studied time period, and no change point was detected. The air temperature showed a significant increasing trend (p < 0.01), and 1986 (p < 0.01) was the change point year. The climate variability, as measured by precipitation and temperature, and non‐climate factors including land use changes and soil and water conservation were estimated to have contributed almost equally to the reduction in annual streamflow. Soil and water conservation practices, including biological measures (e.g. revegetation, planting trees and grass) and engineering measures (such as fish‐scale pits, horizontal trenches, and sediment‐trapping dams) play an important role in reduction of the conversion of rainfall to run‐off. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Community vulnerability to hazards: introducing local expert knowledge into the equation

The accuracies of three different evolutionary artificial neural network (ANN) approaches, ANN with genetic algorithm (ANN-GA), ANN with particle swarm optimization (ANN-PSO) and ANN with imperialist competitive algorithm (ANN-ICA), were compared in estimating groundwater levels (GWL) based on precipitation, evaporation and previous GWL data. The input combinations determined using auto-, partial auto- and cross-correlation analyses and tried for each model are: (i) GWL _t?1 and GWL _t?2; (ii) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2 and P _t ; (iii) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2 and E _t ; (iv) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2, P _t and E _t ; (v) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2 and P _t?1 where GWL _t , P _t and E _t indicate the GWL, precipitation and evaporation at time t, individually. The optimal ANN-GA, ANN-PSO and ANN-ICA models were obtained by trying various control parameters. The best accuracies of the ANN-GA, ANN-PSO and ANN-ICA models were obtained from input combination (i). The mean square error accuracies of the ANN-GA and ANN-ICA models were increased by 165 and 124% using ANN-PSO model. The results indicated that the ANN-PSO model performed better than the other models in modeling monthly groundwater levels.     

Relationships between typhoons,climate and crime rates in Taiwan

The literature indicates climate change is likely to cause more frequent and intense extreme weather events along with higher temperatures and altered precipitation. Taiwan frequently suffers from extremes in the form of typhoons, and their effects threaten both social stability and public security. Temperature effects through climate change are also expected to alter crime rates. We examine the immediate and longer-run impacts of typhoons and other climate variables on crime rates in Taiwan. The immediate results suggest that typhoon intensity has a significantly negative influence on rates of crime, including all violent crimes and automobile thefts. They also show that warmer temperatures have a strong positive effect on all violent crimes and all the subtypes of violent crimes. In addition, longer duration typhoons increase the immediate rates of all violent crimes, automobile thefts and muggings while decreasing the rate of burglaries. In the long run, we find that typhoon intensity, duration and landfall have persistent, lagged effects on crime that vary from negative to positive. For example, strong-intensity typhoons have significantly negative lagged effects on crimes 3–5 months in the future but positive lagged effects on crimes in future months 6–9. Finally, projections under the IPCC climate change scenarios show all violent crimes will increase.     

Evolution of tuff ring-dome complex: the case study of Cerro Pinto, eastern Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt

Cerro Pinto is a Pleistocene rhyolite tuff ring-dome complex located in the eastern Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. The complex is composed of four tuff rings and four domes that were emplaced in three eruptive stages marked by changes in vent location and eruptive character. During Stage I, vent clearing produced a 1.5-km-diameter tuff ring that was then followed by emplacement of two domes of approximately 0.2 km³ each. With no apparent hiatus in activity, Stage II began with the explosive formation of a tuff ring ~2 km in diameter adjacent to and north of the earlier ring. Subsequent Stage II eruptions produced two smaller tuff rings within the northern tuff ring as well as a small dome that was mostly destroyed by explosions during its growth. Stage III involved the emplacement of a 0.04 km³ dome within the southern tuff ring. Cerro Pinto’s eruptive history includes sequences that follow simple rhyolite-dome models, in which a pyroclastic phase is followed immediately by effusive dome emplacement. Some aspects of the eruption, however, such as the explosive reactivation of the system and explosive dome destruction, are more complex. These events are commonly associated with polygenetic structures, such as stratovolcanoes or calderas, in which multiple pulses of magma initiate reactivation. A comparison of major and trace element geochemistry with nearby Pleistocene silicic centers does not show indication of any co-genetic relationship, suggesting that Cerro Pinto was produced by a small, isolated magma chamber. The compositional variation of the erupted material at Cerro Pinto is minimal, suggesting that there were not multiple pulses of magma responsible for the complex behavior of the volcano and that the volcanic system was formed in a short time period. The variety of eruptive style observed at Cerro Pinto reflects the influence of quickly exhaustible water sources on a short-lived eruption. The rising magma encountered small amounts of groundwater that initiated eruption phases. Once a critical magma:water ratio was exceeded, the eruptions became dry and sub-plinian to plinian. The primary characteristic of Cerro Pinto is the predominance of fall deposits, suggesting that the level at which rising magma encountered water was deep enough to allow substantial fragmentation after the water source was exhausted. Isolated rhyolite domes are rare and are not currently viewed as prominent volcanic hazards, but the evolution of Cerro Pinto demonstrates that individual domes may have complex cycles, and such complexity must be taken into account when making hazard risk assessments.     

Soil erosion changes over the past five decades in the red soil region of Southern China

This paper reports the dynamic changes of soil and water loss in the red soil region of Southern China since the 1950s. The red soil region covers eight provinces: Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Fujian, Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong and Hainan. From the 1950s to 1986, the annual rate of soil erosion increased by 3.4%. From 1986 to 1996 and from 1996 to 2000, the annual rates of soil erosion decreased by 2.0% and 0.32%, respectively. Field surveys showed that from 2000 to 2005, the area of soil and water loss decreased annually by 1.2%. This decrease was a result of large-scale erosion control activities across China. Although the eroded soil has been restored, the restoration process is very slow and full restoration will take a long time. Our report suggests that controlling soil and water loss is a challenging task, and additional measures must be taken to effectively control the soil erosion in the red soil region.     

地下工程施工监控地质地理信息系统研究

主要设计与实现了地下工程施工监控地质地理信息系统（MGGIS）。首先分析了系统特点、结构、具有的功能以及采用的平台和相关技术,定义了数据的获取和存储格式。然后在此基础上进行了3个功能独立的子系统的详细设计与实现,分别为工程计划显示子系统、平面时空效应子系统和断面图显示子系统。首次提出在RIA技术支持下,实现B/S架构下的工程地质地理信息系统;提出了反映随施工进度变化地下工程及环境空间信息的显示平台技术方案,充分反应了地下工程施工中空间信息具有时空效应的特点,适合地下工程安全风险管理的需要。该系统与同类型地理信息系统平台相比具有使用简单、交互性强、速度快等优点,研究成果已经在北京轨道交通工程安全风险监控系统和南京地铁工程安全风险监控系统等相关项目中得以应用。     

中国伊犁河流域生态建设战略与互动模式

运用流域生态学和生态恢复学理论与方法,分析伊犁河流域生态环境背景和利弊因素,划分伊犁河流域为河谷次生林封育治理区、伊犁河谷平原农业和农林牧综合生态建设区、沙漠防风固沙林建设区、逆温带生态经济林建设区、山地水源涵养林建设区、高山冰雪及高寒荒漠生态区等生态建设区,以及乌孙山北部山前平原生态建设重点区;通过对各建设区的分析评价以及流域生态环境特点、资源配置结构、生态服务建设功能耦合关系的研究,提出流域垂直立体的生态建设格局、方向、重点等战略措施,以及流域生态与大农业"双赢"互动模式。为实现流域生态良性循环与大农业可持续发展提供依据。