A Time Monte Carlo method for addressing uncertainty in land-use change models

One of the main objectives of land-use change models is to explore future land-use patterns. Therefore, the issue of addressing uncertainty in land-use forecasting has received an increasing attention in recent years. Many current models consider uncertainty by including a randomness component in their structure. In this paper, we present a novel approach for tuning uncertainty over time, which we refer to as the Time Monte Carlo (TMC) method. The TMC uses a specific range of randomness to allocate new land uses. This range is associated with the transition probabilities from one land use to another. The range of randomness is increased over time so that the degree of uncertainty increases over time. We compare the TMC to the randomness components used in previous models, through a coupled logistic regression-cellular automata model applied for Wallonia (Belgium) as a case study. Our analysis reveals that the TMC produces results comparable with existing methods over the short-term validation period (2000–2010). Furthermore, the TMC can tune uncertainty on longer-term time horizons, which is an essential feature of our method to account for greater uncertainty in the distant future.     

Momentum- and Heat-Flux Parametrization at Dome C,Antarctica: A Sensitivity Study

An extensive meteorological observational dataset at Dome C, East Antarctic Plateau, enabled estimation of the sensitivity of surface momentum and sensible heat fluxes to aerodynamic roughness length and atmospheric stability in this region. Our study reveals that (1) because of the preferential orientation of snow micro-reliefs (sastrugi), the aerodynamic roughness length \(z_{0}\) varies by more than two orders of magnitude depending on the wind direction; consequently, estimating the turbulent fluxes with a realistic but constant \(z_{0}\) of 1 mm leads to a mean friction velocity bias of \(24\,\%\) in near-neutral conditions; (2) the dependence of the ratio of the roughness length for heat \(z_{0t}\) to \(z_{0}\) on the roughness Reynolds number is shown to be in reasonable agreement with previous models; (3) the wide range of atmospheric stability at Dome C makes the flux very sensitive to the choice of the stability functions; stability function models presumed to be suitable for stable conditions were evaluated and shown to generally underestimate the dimensionless vertical temperature gradient; as these models differ increasingly with increases in the stability parameter z / L, heat flux and friction velocity relative differences reached \(100\,\%\) when \(z/L > 1\); (4) the shallowness of the stable boundary layer is responsible for significant sensitivity to the height of the observed temperature and wind data used to estimate the fluxes. Consistent flux results were obtained with atmospheric measurements at heights up to 2 m. Our sensitivity study revealed the need to include a dynamical parametrization of roughness length over Antarctica in climate models and to develop new parametrizations of the surface fluxes in very stable conditions, accounting, for instance, for the divergence in both radiative and turbulent fluxes in the first few metres of the boundary layer.     

Space-time kriging of precipitation variability in Turkey for the period 1976–2010

The purpose of this study is to revaluate the changing spatial and temporal trends of precipitation in Turkey. Turkey is located in one of the regions at greatest risk from the potential effects of climate change. Since the 1970s, a decreasing trend in annual precipitation has been observed, in addition to an increasing number of precipitation-related natural hazards such as floods, extreme precipitation, and droughts. An understanding of the temporal and spatial characteristics of precipitation is therefore crucial to hazard management as well as planning and managing water resources, which depend heavily on precipitation. The ordinary kriging method was employed to interpolate precipitation estimates using precipitation records from 228 meteorological stations across the country for the period 1976–2010. A decreasing trend was observed across the Central Anatolian region, except for 1996–2000 which saw an increase in precipitation. However, this same period is identified as the driest year in Eastern and South Eastern Anatolia. The Eastern Black Sea region has the highest precipitation in the country; after 1996, an increase in annual precipitation in this region is observed. An overall reduction is also seen in southwest Turkey, with less variation in precipitation.

     

Adjustability of exposed elements by updating their capacity for resistance after a damaging event: application to an earthquake–tsunami cascade scenario

Natural Hazards - The 2011 Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami remind us once again that these types of cascade event can occur and cause considerable damage. The scientific community realizes...     

Relative quantification of wind erosion in argan woodlands in the Souss Basin,Morocco

The endemic argan woodlands cover large parts of South Morocco and create a characteristic landscape with areas of sparsely vegetated and bare soil surfaces between single trees. This unique ecosystem has been under extensive agrosilvopastoral management for centuries and is now at risk of degradation caused by overgrazing and increasing scarcity and variability of rainfall. To investigate susceptibility to wind erosion, we conducted an experimental–empirical study including wind tunnel tests and a drone-generated digital elevation model and quantified wind-erodible material on five different associated surface types by means of sediment catchers. The highest emission flux was measured on freshly ploughed surfaces (1875 g m^–2 h^–1), while older ploughed areas with a re-established crust produced a much lower emission flux (795 g m^–2 h^–1). Extensive tillage may have been a sustainable practice for generations, but increasing drought and uncertainty of rainfall now lead to an acute risk of severe soil erosion and dust production. The typical crusted surfaces characterized by residual rock fragment accumulation and wash processes produced the second highest emission flux (1,354 g m^–2 h^–1). Material collected from tree-shaded areas (933 g m^–2 h^–1) was revealed to be a considerable source of organic material, possibly affecting substrate conditions positively on a larger regional scale. The lowest flux was measured on rock fragment-covered surfaces (301 g m^–2 h^–1). The data show that open argan woodland may be a considerable source for wind erosion and dust production, depending on surface characteristics strongly related to management. An adapted management must include the conservation of argan trees to offer a promising approach to prevent severe wind erosion and dust production and mitigate possible impacts of land-use change and climate change related shifts in wind and rainfall patterns. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd     

Multivariate statistical analysis of the groundwater flow in shallow aquifers: a case of the basins of northern Algeria

Water resources in Algeria are mainly controlled by climate change which creates enormous problems in its planning, management and distribution. While the surface water resources are perfectly managed and operated by means of dams and small dams built for several years, the groundwater resources remain long unknown and unusable because of the lack of relevant working tools (e.g., methods, formulas, maps, etc.) for planners and engineers working in the field of water resources exploration. To highlight the hydrodynamic processes of groundwater in shallow aquifers of the basins of northern Algeria, we conducted a study using 81 subwatersheds collected from different locations at the basins; taking into account the climatic and geomorphological factors, to understand water usage trends, analyse patterns, tap good shallow aquifers and ensure long lasting supplies of water through arid periods, mapping and modelling of groundwater are fundamental to problem resolution. Multivariate statistical techniques as well as cluster and principal component analysis were applied to the data on groundwater flow, with the objective of defining the main controls on the groundwater flows at the basins. These statistical techniques showed the presence of three groundwater flow groups with increasing importance according to precipitation. The first group was mainly influenced by climatic factors, the second was more controlled by the communication between the surface and underground flows and the third group revealed the influence of geomorphological factors on groundwater flows.     

Modelling wind-erosion risk in the Laghouat region (Algeria) using geomatics approach

Wind-erosion risk is a challenge that threatens land development in dry-land regions. Soil analysis, remote sensing, climatic, vegetal cover and topographic data were used in a geographic information system (GIS), using multi-criteria analysis (MCA) to map wind-erosion risk (R_we) in Laghouat, Algeria. The approach was based on modelling the risk and incorporating topographic and climatic effects. The maps were coded according to their sensitivity to wind erosion and to their socio-economic potential, from low to very high. By overlapping the effects of these layers, qualitative maps were drawn to reflect the potential sensitivity to wind erosion per unit area. The results indicated that severe wind erosion affects mainly all the southern parts and some parts in the north of Laghouat, where wind-erosion hazard (H_we) is very high in 43% of the total area, and which was affected mainly by natural parameters such as soil, topography and wind. The results also identified features vulnerable to R_we. The product of the hazard and the stake maps indicated the potential risk areas that need preventive measures; this was more than half of the study area, making it essential to undertake environmental management and land-use planning.     

Uncertainty assessment of ephemeral gully identification,characteristics and topographic threshold when using aerial photographs in agricultural settings

Manual digitizing on aerial photographs is still commonly used for characterizing gully erosion over large areas. Even when automated detection procedures are implemented, manual digitizing is frequently being resorted to in order to constitute reference datasets used for training and validation. In both cases, manual digitizing entails some subjective decisions on behalf of the operator, which introduces uncertainty into the resulting datasets. To assess the magnitude of this uncertainty, 11 experienced operators were asked to digitize and classify ephemeral gullies (EGs) on cropland following a standardized methodology. The resulting 11 datasets were compared in terms of number, type and location of EGs. Furthermore, for EGs located on a well‐defined runoff flow concentration axis, the slope versus contributing area topographic thresholds required for initiating gully channels were assessed using four thresholding methods, and compared across the 11 datasets. The operators identified 259 different EGs. However, the number (52–139) and sum total length (8.9–23.7 km) of EGs varied widely across operators. Only 34% of the EGs were digitized by more than half of the operators, and 7% were identified by all. Identification of EGs located on a well‐defined flow concentration axis proved least subjective. The longer the EG and the more fields the EG crossed, the larger the number of operators that were able to identify it. EGs were also most easily identified when located in sugar beet fields as compared to other crops. EG classification and topographic threshold lines were also found to be strongly operator‐dependent. Quantile regression appeared to be one of the most robust thresholding methods. Operator subjectivity when digitizing EGs on orthophotographs introduces uncertainty that should be taken into account in future remote sensing‐based studies of EG erosion whenever they rely, in part or in full, on manual photograph interpretation. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.