Future climate in the Pacific Northwest

Climate models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) on the whole reproduce the observed seasonal cycle and twentieth century warming trend of 0.8°C (1.5°F) in the Pacific Northwest, and point to much greater warming for the next century. These models project increases in annual temperature of, on average, 1.1°C (2.0°F) by the 2020s, 1.8°C (3.2°F) by the 2040s, and 3.0°C (5.3°F) by the 2080s, compared with the average from 1970 to 1999, averaged across all climate models. Rates of warming range from 0.1°C to 0.6°C (0.2°F to 1.0°F) per decade. Projected changes in annual precipitation, averaged over all models, are small (+1% to +2%), but some models project an enhanced seasonal cycle with changes toward wetter autumns and winters and drier summers. Changes in nearshore sea surface temperatures, though smaller than on land, are likely to substantially exceed interannual variability, but coastal upwelling changes little. Rates of twenty-first century sea level rise will depend on poorly known factors like ice sheet instability in Greenland and Antarctica, and could be as low as twentieth century values (20 cm, 8^″) or as large as 1.3 m (50^″).     

Stratigraphy of total metals in PIRLA sediment cores

Sediment cores from 30 low-alkalinity lakes in northern New England (NE), New York (NY), the northern Great Lakes States (NGLS) of Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and Florida (FL) have been dated by ²¹⁰Pb and analyzed for water and organic content, eight major elements (Al, Ti, Fe, Mn, Ca, Mg, Na, K) plus four trace metals (Pb, Zn, Cu, and V). Variations in the percentages of major elements through time are dominated by long-term independent variations in the abundance of SiO₂, FeO, and to a lesser extent Ca and Al. Additional variations are caused by varying proportions of inorganic matter. Major variations in chemistry are generally unrelated to documented distrubances in the watersheds; most disturbances are minor fires or selective logging.Accelerated accumulation of Pb from atmospheric sources into sediment first occurs in sediment dated between 1800 and 1850 in NY and NE, slightly later in the NGLS region, and about 1900 in FL. Modern accumulation rates in all areas are comparable (ca. 1 to 4 g cm^–2 yr^–1). Accumulation rates of Pb in some lakes have declined significantly from 1975 to 1985. Atmospheric deposition of anthropogenic Zn and Cu is also indicated by generally increasing accumulation rates in sediment cores, but the record is not as clear nor are chemical profiles in all lakes parallel to the trends in atmospheric emissions inferred on the basis of fossil fuel consumption, smelting, and other industrial activities. Inter-lake variations in profiles of Cu and Zn are large. Vanadium accumulation rates increase by the 1940s in NY and NE, but not until the 1950s in the NGLS region. This timing correlates with regional trends in the combustion of fuel oil, a major source of atmospheric V.Acidification of some of the lakes is suggested by decreases in the concentration and accumulation rates of Mn, Ca, and Zn in recent sediment, relative to other elements of catchment origin. The decreases generally occur slightly before the onset of acidification as indicated by diatoms. Increased sediment accumulation rates for Fe may indicate the acidification of watershed soils. The use of the accumulation rate of TiO₂ as an indicator of rates of erosion and for normalization of trace metal accumulation rates is in question for lakes where the flux of TiO₂ from the atmosphere varies and is a significant fraction of the total flux of TiO₂ to the sediment.This is the thirteenth of a series of papers to be published by this journal which is a contribution of the Paleoecological Investigation of Recent Lake Acidification (PIRLA) project. Drs. D. F. Charles and D. R. Whitehead are guest editors for this series.     

Wind velocity and sand transport on a barchan dune

We present measurements of wind velocity and sand flux performed on the windward side of a large barchan dune in Jericoacoara, northeastern Brazil. From the measured profile, we calculate the air shear stress using an analytical approximation and treat the problem of flow separation by an heuristic model. We find that the results from this approach agree well with our field data. Moreover, using the calculated shear velocity, we predict the sand flux according to well-known equilibrium relations and with a phenomenological continuum saltation model that includes saturation transients and thus allows for nonequilibrium conditions. Based on the field data and theoretical predicted results, we indicate the principal differences between saturated and nonsaturated sand flux models. Finally, we show that the measured dune moves with invariant shape and predict its velocity from our data and calculations.     

Vegetative succession and controlled fire in a glades ecosystem A geographical information system approach

Abstract

A geographical information system (GIS) approach was used successfully on a federal wilderness area in southwestern Missouri to examine vegetative succession relative to fire management in a glades ecosystem. Maps of vegetation were obtained by interpreting aerial photographs taken in 1938, 1958, 1966, 1975 and 1986. Maps of topography, streams, soils and the location of fires which burned during the period 1938 to 1986 were also procured from a variety of public agencies. All maps were digitized and incorporated into a raster-based GIS with 25 m pixels. It was concluded that (1) both glades and oak-hickory forest have an affinity for distinct physiographic areas and (2) fire can help decrease the rate of processes of natural succession which cause glades to convert to forest. The probable effects of controlled fire on three areas proposed by the Forest Service were evaluated and summarized.     

An analysis of intra-event precipitation variability for the United States (1980–2010)

Hourly precipitation data were collected from 143 first-order US weather stations during the period from 1980 to 2009 to assess the internal distribution of precipitation events lasting at least three hours. A total of 46,595 individual precipitation events were identified and evaluated using the mean, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis, and the number of peaks occurring within an event. Mean event duration is longest along the West and Northwest coasts, the Mid-South, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast; while shorter-duration events are more frequent in the Rocky Mountains, the Southwest, and the Great Plains. Mean event precipitation and standard deviation are greatest along the Gulf Coast and decrease inland. Precipitation events are positively skewed, indicating that more precipitation tends to occur earlier in the event. The most positively-skewed events are also located in regions flanking the Gulf of Mexico, while less-skewed events are common in the Northwest and Rocky Mountain regions. Event kurtosis is negative throughout the entire USA, with the highest negative values generally west of the Front Range, where cyclonic development and transition produce more evenly distributed precipitation within storms. Intra-event precipitation maxima were also evaluated, with western Florida and the desert Southwest having the greatest number per event.     

A modeling of the structure and compressibility of quartz with a molecular potential and its transferability to cristobalite and coesite

Several computer models of quartz were developed and tested. A simple model based on a potential energy function, derived in large part from quantum mechanical calculations on the molecule H₆Si₂O₇, was found to reproduce the compressibility curve for quartz up to pressures of 8 GPa. The potential includes quadratic expressions for the SiO bond lengths, the OSiO angles and a parameter spanning the SiOSi angle together with an exponential OO repulsion term for non co-dimer O atoms. The variations in the cell edges and in the SiOSi angle, as a function of pressure, parallel observed trends when the bond lengths and angles calculated for the molecule are used as rgressor values. Poisson ratios calculated using the model match those observed. Two configurations for quartz related by the Dauphiné twin law are generated as minimum energy structures of the model with about equal frequencies as observed in nature. It is shown that the model, devised for quartz, can also be applied to the silica polymorph cristobalite, giving reasonable estimates of its compressibility curve, structural parameters and its negative Poisson ratio. When the observed bond lengths and angles are used as regressor values, the model generates the absolute coordinates of the atoms and the cell dimensions for quartz to within 0.005 Å and those of cristobalite to within 0.001 Å, on average, both at zero pressure. When applied to coesite, the model yields a zero pressure structure that is close to that observed but which is significantly softer than observed. The resulting SiO bond lengths are linearly correlated with f _s (O), as observed for coesite, despite the use of a single bond length and a single SiOSi angle as regressor values in the calculation. When the structures are optimized assuming P1 space group symmetry and triclinic cell dimensions, the resulting frameworks of silicate tetrahedra exhibit the translational, rotational and reflection symmetries observed for quartz, cristobalite and coesite. The fact that the resulting frameworks exhibit observed space group symmetries is evidence that the symmetry adopted by the silica polymorphs can be explained by short ranged forces.     

Soft rock pillars

Summary Soft rock pillars can be designed by several methods available in the mining literature. All of these methods include the effect of shape, or geometry, on the average strength of specimens and pillars. All of the pillar design methods include some measurement of the strength of specimens of the pillar rock. The most common rock specimen strength property measured is the unconfined compressive strength. However, the average strength of triaxially confined rock specimens is much greater than the unconfined specimen strength, which can be more important to pillar strength. The estimation of the strength of a pillar is complicated by the decrease in rock specimen strength with increase in specimen size.Editor's note: In common with North American engineering practise, the paper uses English units throughout, where feasible conversions are included in the text. Where not, the following factors may be used: 1 inch=25.4 mm; 1 ft=0.3048 m; 1 lbf/in.^–2=6.895 kn/m^–2; 1Tonf.=8.896 kN.     

A strontium,neodymium and oxygen isotope study of hydrothermal metamorphism and crustal anatexis in the Trois Seigneurs Massif,Pyrenees, France

Nd, Sr, and O isotope analyses have been made on metamorphic and igneous rocks and minerals from a 310–340 Ma Hercynian-age metamorphic terrane in the Pyrenees, France. Lower Paleozoic shales and phyllites have ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr values of 0.707–0.717 at 310 Ma, but model values at 310 Ma of 0.709–0.736 (based on assumed depositional age of 450 Ma and an initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr=0.707). On a regional scale, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr was homogenized to about 0.713 to 0.717 in the higher-grade pelitic schists during metamorphism. Much of this ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr exchange occurred at very low grades (below the biotite isograd), but significant changes also accompanied the δ ¹⁸O lowering of the phyllites (+13 to +16) during their transformation to andalusite- and sillimanite-grade schists (δ ¹⁸O=+11 to +12); all of these effects are attributed to pervasive interactions with hydrothermal fluids (Wickham and Taylor 1985). The data also show that a syn-metamorphic plutonic complex, dominated by a biotite granite body, was derived by mixing of a relatively mafic magmatic end-member (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr～ 0.7025–0.7050 and δ ¹⁸O～ +7.5 to +8.0) with two metasedimentary sources, both having ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr～0.715 and δ ¹⁸O～ +10.0 to +12.0, but with one being more homogeneous than the other. The more homogeneous component and the (mantle-derived?) magmatic end-member dominate at low structural levels within the complex. The less homogeneous end-member that dominates at high levels is clearly derived from the local Paleozoic pelitic schists. A Rb-Sr age of 330±20 Ma was obtained on hornblende from a deep level within the complex, which fixes this age for the regional metamorphism, as well. Although a post-metamorphic granodiorite magma body at Trois Seigneurs also displays heterogeneities in δ ¹⁸O and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr (and thus does not give a clear-cut Rb-Sr isochron), the data are consistent with an emplacement age between 260 and 310 Ma, similar to ages of other late granodiorites in the Pyrenees. ¹⁴³Nd/ ¹⁴⁴Nd is very uniform within the Hercynian crust, both at Trois Seigneurs (? _Nd=?3 to ?7) and elsewhere in the Pyrenees; almost all igneous lithologies have depleted-mantle, mid-Proterozoic model ages, consistent with efficient recycling of crustal material following original crustal accretion in this area at about 1600 Ma or earlier. Rb-Sr mineral ages exhibit a complex cooling history reflecting late Hercynian and Mesozoic thermal events. Our results show that profound homogenization of the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and ¹⁸O/¹⁶O ratios of large volumes of the crust can occur during regional metamorphism and crustal anatexis, particularly in regions undergoing extensional tectonics. Such processes can significantly modify the isotopic compositions of the protoliths of granitic magmas; this may explain why many peraluminous Hercynian granitoids of Western Europe have anomalously low (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr) initial values compared to their probable sedimentary parent rocks.     

Estimating the crush zone size under a cutting tool in coal

Summary As part of an effort to understand the mechanics of fine fragment formation in coal, which is important in studies of respirable dust due to mining, fracture toughness measurements and the strain energy density (SED) theory were applied to calculate the crush zone size under a cutting tool in coal. This zone is the major source of fine fragments in the 1 to 10 µm size range. The model used in these calculations is a boundary element program containing a failure criterion based on the SED theory. The boundary element program calculates linear elastic stresses at numerous points in the coal material ahead of a cutting bit. These stresses are then input to a subroutine called critical flaw length and orientation (CFLO) which uses the SED theory to determine the CFLO for a small crack at the boundary element stress computation point. The extent of crushing is based on earlier postulates about the role of inherent flaws in a fragmentation process. To form 1 to 10 µm fragments requires firstly a local stress strong enough to activate flaws with a characteristic length less than 1 to 10 µm and secondly, a flaw density sufficient to provide an average spacing between flaws also on the order of 1 to 10 µm. The locus of active 10 µm flaws represents the maximum possible extent of fine fragmentation in the 10 µm or less size range assuming that a sufficient inherent flaw density exists. The approach offers a first order approximation to the extent of crushing under a tool tip. The size and shape of the crush zone volume is affected by the attack angle and geometry of the tool.     

Dispersion modeling of air pollutants in the atmosphere: a review

Modeling of dispersion of air pollutants in the atmosphere is one of the most important and challenging scientific problems. There are several natural and anthropogenic events where passive or chemically active compounds are emitted into the atmosphere. The effect of these chemical species can have serious impacts on our environment and human health. Modeling the dispersion of air pollutants can predict this effect. Therefore, development of various model strategies is a key element for the governmental and scientific communities. We provide here a brief review on the mathematical modeling of the dispersion of air pollutants in the atmosphere. We discuss the advantages and drawbacks of several model tools and strategies, namely Gaussian, Lagrangian, Eulerian and CFD models. We especially focus on several recent advances in this multidisciplinary research field, like parallel computing using graphical processing units, or adaptive mesh refinement.