Statistical distributions of singular vectors for tropical cyclones affecting Korea over a 10-year period

To investigate the statistical sensitivity distributions of tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts over the Korean Peninsula, total energy (TE) singular vectors (SVs) were calculated and evaluated over a 10-year period. TESVs were calculated using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) and its tangent linear and adjoint models with a Lanczos algorithm over a 48-h period. Chosen cases were 21 TCs that affected the Korean Peninsula among 230 TCs that were generated in the western North Pacific from 2001 to 2010. Sensitive regions indicated by TESVs were mainly located near mid-latitude troughs and TC centers but varied depending on TC track and environmental conditions such as subtropical high and mid-latitude trough. The cases were classified into three groups by clustering TC tracks based on the finite mixture model. The two groups that passed through the western and southern sea of the Korean Peninsula had maximally sensitive regions in the mid-latitude trough and largely sensitive regions around the TC center, while the other group that passed straight through the eastern sea of the Korean Peninsula had maximally sensitive regions near the northeastern region of the TC center. Vertically, the former two clustered groups had the westerly tilted TESVs and potential vorticity structures under the mid-latitude troughs at the initial time, indicating the TCs were in a baroclinic environment. Conversely, the straight-moving TCs were not in a baroclinic environment. Based on the results in the present study, the TCs moving toward a fixed verification region over the Korean Peninsula have different sensitivity regions and structures according to their moving tracks and characteristic environmental conditions, which may provide guidance for targeted observations of TCs affecting the Korean Peninsula.     

Lichenometry in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru: “Little Ice Age” moraine chronology

This paper is a comparison and compilation of lichenometric and geomorphic studies performed by two independent teams in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, in 1996 and 2002 on 66 “Little Ice Age” moraines of 14 glaciers. Using eleven new control points, we recalibrated the initial rapid growth phase of the previously established Rhizocarpon subgenus Rhizocarpon growth curve. This curve was then used to estimate the age of “Little Ice Age” moraines. The time of deposition of the most prominent and numerous terminal and lateral moraines on the Pacific-facing side of the Cordillera Blanca (between AD 1590 and AD 1720) corresponds to the coldest and wettest phase in the tropical Andes as revealed by ice-core data. Less prominent advances occurred between AD 1780 and 1880.     

Search for millisecond periodicities in type I X-ray bursts of the Rapid Burster

We have searched the rising portion of type I X-ray bursts observed from the Rapid Burster with the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer for the presence of periodicities. The 95 per cent confidence upper limit on the average rms variation of near coherent pulsations with a width of ≲1 Hz (in 60–2048 Hz) during the first second of the bursts is <8.8 per cent. We find a possible detection (>98 per cent significance) at 306.5 Hz.     

Seasonal variability in the input of lead, barium and indium to Law Dome, Antarctica

Lead (Pb) isotopic compositions and concentrations, and barium (Ba) and indium (In) concentrations have been determined at monthly resolution in five Law Dome (coastal Eastern Antarctica) ice core sections dated from ∼1757 AD to ∼1898 AD. ‘Natural’ background Pb concentrations in ∼1757 AD average ∼0.2 pg g⁻¹ and can be attributed to mineral dust and volcanic emissions, with ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb ratios reaching up to 1.266 ± 0.002. From ∼1887 AD to ∼1898 AD, Pb concentrations reached ∼5 pg g⁻¹ and ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb ratios decreased to 1.058 ± 0.001 as a result of additional inputs of Pb from anthropogenic sources. Seasonal variability in the late 1880s has been investigated by decoupling volcanic Pb from the total measured Pb concentrations, revealing spring and autumn maxima, and consistent winter minima, in anthropogenic Pb and mineral dust (Ba) concentrations. We link this variability to the annual cycle in the position and strength of the Antarctic Circumpolar Trough and, the Southern Ocean westerly winds to the north of the trough region. During the autumn and spring seasons, these systems increase in strength, transporting more impurity laden air from the Southern Hemisphere continental regions to Eastern Antarctica and Law Dome. As this Pb is isotopically identical to that emitted from south-eastern Australia (Broken Hill, Port Pirie) this implies a relatively direct air trajectory pathway from southern Australia to Law Dome (Eastern Antarctica).     

Hydrogeophysical Methods for Analyzing Aquifer Storage and Recovery Systems

Hydrogeophysical methods are presented that support the siting and monitoring of aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) systems. These methods are presented as numerical simulations in the context of a proposed ASR experiment in Kuwait, although the techniques are applicable to numerous ASR projects. Bulk geophysical properties are calculated directly from ASR flow and solute transport simulations using standard petrophysical relationships and are used to simulate the dynamic geophysical response to ASR. This strategy provides a quantitative framework for determining site‐specific geophysical methods and data acquisition geometries that can provide the most useful information about the ASR implementation. An axisymmetric, coupled fluid flow and solute transport model simulates injection, storage, and withdrawal of fresh water (salinity ～500 ppm) into the Dammam aquifer, a tertiary carbonate formation with native salinity approximately 6000 ppm. Sensitivity of the flow simulations to the correlation length of aquifer heterogeneity, aquifer dispersivity, and hydraulic permeability of the confining layer are investigated. The geophysical response using electrical resistivity, time‐domain electromagnetic (TEM), and seismic methods is computed at regular intervals during the ASR simulation to investigate the sensitivity of these different techniques to changes in subsurface properties. For the electrical and electromagnetic methods, fluid electric conductivity is derived from the modeled salinity and is combined with an assumed porosity model to compute a bulk electrical resistivity structure. The seismic response is computed from the porosity model and changes in effective stress due to fluid pressure variations during injection/recovery, while changes in fluid properties are introduced through Gassmann fluid substitution.     

A statistical assessment of the uncertainty in a 3-D geological framework model

Three-dimensional framework models are the state of the art to present geologists’ understanding of a region in a form that can be used to support planning and decision making. However, there is little information on the uncertainty of such framework models. This paper reports an experiment in which five geologists each produced a framework model of a single region in the east of England. Each modeller was provided with a unique set of borehole observations from which to make their model. Each set was made by withholding five unique validation boreholes from the set of all available boreholes. The models could then be compared with the validation observations. There was no significant between-modeller source of variation in framework model error. There was no evidence of systematic bias in the modelled depth for any unit, and a statistically significant but small tendency for the mean error to increase with depth below the surface. The confidence interval for the predicted height of a surface at a point ranged from ±5.6 m to ±6.4 m. There was some evidence that the variance of the model error increased with depth, but no evidence that it differed between modellers or varied with the number of close-neighbouring boreholes or distance to the outcrop. These results are specific to the area that has been modelled, with relatively simple geology, and reflect the relatively dense set of boreholes available for modelling. The method should be applied under a range of conditions to derive more general conclusions.     

A note on the petrology of some lava types from East New Guinea

Quaternary and upper Tertiary lavas from the volcanic islands along the north coast of east New Guinea consist of pyroxene andesites, andesitic basalts, and basalts; many contain accessory olivine. The lavas of Mts Lamington, Yelia, and Victory, in southeast Papua and New Guinea, are rather more acid hornblende and lamprobolite andesites. Peralkaline obsidian and rhyolite occur at Fergusson and Dobu Islands, east of the Papuan mainland. Chemical analyses show that most of the lavas are of calc‐alkaline type, although some from Karkar and Long Islands appear to have tholeiitic tendencies.     

Breaking the Grenville–Sveconorwegian link in Rodinia reconstructions

The Grenville, Sveconorwegian, and Sunsas orogens are typically inferred to reflect collision between Laurentia, Baltica, and Amazonia at ca. 1.0 Ga, forming a central portion of the Rodinia supercontinent. This triple‐junction configuration is often nearly identical in otherwise diverse Rodinia reconstructions. However, available geological data suggest that although the Grenville and Sveconorwegian provinces shared a similar tectonic evolution from pre‐1.8 to ca. 1.5 Ga, they record distinctly different tectonic histories leading up to, during, and possibly following Grenville–Sveconorwegian orogenesis. Moreover, palaeomagnetic data suggest the two continents were separated at peak orogenesis, further invalidating any direct correlation. A number of possible interpretations are permissible with available geological and palaeomagnetic data, of which a “classic” triple‐junction configuration appears least likely. In contrast to the commonly inferred intertwined Proterozoic evolution of Baltica and Laurentia, the possibility remains that they were unrelated for a billion years between 1.5 and 0.45 Ga.