Teleconnections between oceanic–atmospheric indices and drought over Iran using quantile regressions

ABSTRACT

In this research, the Bayesian quantile regression model is applied to investigate the teleconnections between large oceanic–atmospheric indices and drought standardized precipitation index (SPI) in Iran. The 12-month SPI time series from 138 synoptic stations for 1952–2014 were selected as the drought index. Three oceanic–atmospheric indices, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation Index (MEI), were selected as covariates. The results show that NAO has the weakest impact on drought in different quantiles and different regions in Iran. La Niña conditions amplified droughts through all SPI quantiles in western, Caspian Sea coastal regions and southern regions. The positive phase of MEI significantly modulates low SPI quantiles (i.e. drought conditions) throughout the Zagros region, Caspian Sea coastal regions and southern regions. The study shows that the effect of large oceanic–atmospheric indices have heterogeneous impacts on extreme dry and wet conditions.     

Strategies for improving land delivery for residential development: a case of the north-west metropolitan Melbourne

One of the factors affecting the housing supply is closely linked to the time taken to complete the land development assessment approval. Delays in completing the development process on time often results in difficulties of increasing housing supply. In parallel, housing demand continues to increase with increasing net population in Australian urban areas. This research aims to identify the current issues and challenges of releasing land for housing development in the established suburbs of Melbourne north-west area (involving six local government areas: Brimbank, Maribyrnong, Moreland, Moonee Valley, Hume and Melton). An application of multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) using the strategic residential potential assessment (SRPA) method is considered. This is designed to improve the method of land administration strategies for housing development. The analysis is set within the context of investigating land preparation processes and their impacts on land availability for housing supply. The research adopts interview techniques to gain insight into the processes of land release through the activities of town planners in the selected local council areas. The proposed SRPA methods are based on a land-use assessment approach that is underpinned by the current residential land-use schemes legislated by the Department of Transport Planning and Local Infrastructure.¹ The results of applying the proposed model reveal the associated spatial pattern of areas with potential for residential development relative to the public transport and public service locations.     

Large-scale replenishment of groundwater depletion by long-lived extreme rainstorms in arid regions: case study of the 2019 floods in Iran

The Dena rainstorm in Iran in March and April 2019 caused about US$ 8.3?×?10⁹ damage in the country; however, it resulted in the replenishment of half of the dam reservoirs and 35% of ponds and lakes. Also, it increased the volume of groundwater stored in aquifers by 3.6?×?10⁹ m³. In arid and semiarid regions such as most parts of Iran, which usually face water scarcity, getting water from rainstorms is essential for replenishing water resources. This research aims to quantify the direct and indirect effects of the Dena rainstorm on the replenishment of Iran’s groundwater storage using the groundwater balance method and water-table fluctuation method. Studies showed that the main mechanisms for replenishment of groundwater storage due to the rainstorm included increases in precipitation recharge, surface runoff recharge, and artificial recharge, and reductions in irrigation withdrawal and evapotranspiration, while the contribution of each factor is estimated to be about 23, 28, 2, 15, and 32%, respectively.

     

Tschermak fractionation in calc-alkaline magmas: the Eocene Sabzevar volcanism (NE Iran)

Calc-alkaline arc magmatism at convergent plate margins is volumetrically dominated by metaluminous andesites. Many studies highlighted the importance of differentiation via fractionation processes of arc magmas, but only in the last decades, it has been demonstrated that not all rock-forming minerals may affect the evolution of calc-alkaline suites. In particular, a major role exerted by Al-rich hornblende amphibole as fractionating mineral phase has been documented in many volcanic arc settings. The aim of this work is to understand the role of the Tschermak molecule (CaAlAlSiO₆) hosted in the hornblende and plagioclase fractionation assemblage in driving magma differentiation in calc-alkaline magmatic suites. We explore this issue by applying replenishment–fractional crystallization (RFC) and rare earth element–Rayleigh fractional crystallization (REE-FC) modeling to the Sabzevar Eocene (ca. 45–47 Ma) calc-alkaline volcanism of NE Central Iran, where hornblende-controlled fractionation has been demonstrated. Major element mass balance modeling indicates RFC dominated by a fractionating assemblage made of Hbl_52.0–52.5 + Pl_44.1–44.2 + Ttn_3.3–3.9 (phases are expressed on total crystallized assemblage). REE-FC modeling shows, instead, a lower degree of fractionation with respect to RFC models that is interpreted as due to hornblende and plagioclase resorption by the residual melt. Calculations demonstrate that fractionation of the Tschermak molecule can readily produce dacite and rhyolite magmas starting from a calc-alkaline andesite source (FC = ca. 30 %). In particular, the Tschermak molecule controls both the heavy rare earth elements (HREE) and light rare earth element (LREE) budgets in calc-alkaline differentiation trends.     

Phosphorous concentration,solubility and species in the groundwater in a semi-arid basin,southern Malayer,western Iran

In areas of intensive crop production, continual phosphorous (P) applications as P fertilizer and farmyard manure have been made at levels exceeding crop requirement. As a result, surface soil accumulations of P have occurred to such an extent that loss of P in surface runoff and a high risk for P transfer into groundwater in concentrations exceeding the groundwater quality standard has become a priority management concern. Phosphorous content of groundwater was determined in order to examine dissolved P concentration and species in the groundwater and mineral solubilitiy in a semi-arid region of southern Malayer, western Iran. The speciation for P in groundwater was calculated using geochemical speciation model PHREEQC. The concentration of total P in the groundwater (0.01–2.56 mg P l⁻¹) and estimated concentrations of HPO₄ ²⁻ (49.5–89%), H₂PO₄ ⁻ (1.5–17.3%), CaHPO₄ ⁺ (5.7–36.1%), and CaPO₄ ⁻ (1.4–12.2%) varied considerably amongst the groundwater. Results suggest that the concentration of P in the groundwater could be primarily controlled by the solubility of octacalcium phosphate and β-tricalcium phosphate. Large amounts of P fertilizer, inadequate management of P fertilization, and low irrigation efficiency, coupled with sandy soils in some parts of the study area could be mainly responsible for the greater P in the groundwater. In general, the greater the dissolved P concentration in the groundwater, the closer the solution was to equilibrium with respect to the more soluble Ca-phosphate minerals. The groundwater P content could be potentially used to identify areas where management approaches, such as P applied and crop type planted, could be adjusted to different types of soils, geology and topography.     

Metal fractionation and pollution risk assessment of different sediment sizes in three major southwestern rivers of Caspian Sea

To assess the risk of release and percentage of heavy metals in river sediment, nine stations were set up to sample surface sediments from three important rivers situated southwest of the Caspian Sea (the Shafaroud, Karaganroud, and Choubar Rivers). Chemical analyses were conducted on sediment with particle sizes of >38, 63–38, 63–125, 125–250, 250–500 and 500–1000 µm using metal fractionation to determine the degree of risk release and the heavy metal pollution. Common risk indices were used including the cumulative indices of pollution intensity assessment and risk release standards (the modified pollution degree and ecological risk). Generally, when sediment sizes are decreased, the concentration of heavy metals is both larger and greater than the mean concentration of global sediments and earth crust. However, in this research, the concentration of all the metals did not necessarily increase with a decrease in the size of particles. In fact, concentration of cobalt, vanadium, cadmium, and chromium was greater in sediment particle sizes over 63 μm. The results of chemical fractionation analyses indicated that the release risk of metals has two initial phases for: (1) exchangeable bond (F1) and (2) carbonated bond (F2). When compared with other metals, nickel had the greatest tendency to bond within the loose exchangeable phase (F1) across all the stations. Furthermore, with changes in the size of particles, the percentage of heavy metal changes across different bond phases, but will be the greatest in the loose exchangeable phase (F1). This was observed with cobalt, nickel, and chromium at particle sizes larger than 63 μm. The results of ecological risk and modified pollution degree indices indicated that the highest level of pollution was related to sediments with sizes between 63 and 250 μm. Eventually, in order to assess the risk extent of metals present in sediment, a cumulative index referred to as the modified risk assessment code was utilized. It suggested that the greatest risk of toxicity in some stations has been related to particles larger than 63 μm.     

Considerations on seismic microzonation in areas with two-dimensional hills

This paper presents the results of an extensive numerical parametric study on seismic behavior of 2D homogenous hills subjected to vertically propagating incident SV waves. It is shown that the amplification potential of these hills is strongly influenced by the wavelength, by the shape ratio, by the shape of the hill and in a less order of importance, by the Poisson ratio of the media. The 2D topography effect could be ignored, only if the hill has a shape ratio of less than 0.1 or if it is subjected to incident waves with predominant dimensionless periods of greater than 13 times the shape ratio. In incidence of waves with wavelengths longer than the width of the hill, the amplification curve usually finds its maximum at the crest and decreases towards the base of the hill. Else, some de-amplification zones would occur along the hill. Among hills with similar shape ratios, those with intermediate cross section areas show intermediate seismic behavior, too. Estimated seismic site coefficients for the crest of a 2D rocky hill depend on its shape ratio and could reach even 1.7, which encourages one to classify it according to standard site categorization procedures as soil profile types SC or SD instead of the conventional SB type.     

Geochemistry of the Zargoli granite: Implications for development of the Sistan Suture Zone,southeastern Iran

The Zargoli granite, which extends in a northeast–southwest direction, intrudes into the Eocene–Oligocene regional metamorphic flysch‐type sediments in the northwest of Zahedan. This pluton, based on modal and geochemical classification, is composed of biotite granite and biotite granodiorite, was contaminated by country rocks during its emplacement, and is slightly changed to more aluminous. The SiO₂ content of these rocks range from 62.4 to 66 wt% with an alumina saturation index of Shand [molar Al₂O₃/(CaO + Na₂O + K₂O)] ～ 1.1. Most of its chemical variations could be explained by fractionation or heterogeneous distribution of biotite. The features of the rocks resemble those which are typical to post‐collisional granitoids. Chondrite‐normalized rare‐earth element patterns of these rocks are fractionated at (La/Lu)_N = 2.25–11.82 with a pronounced negative Eu anomaly (Eu/Eu* = 3.25–5.26). Zircon saturation thermometry provides a good estimation of magma temperatures (767.4–789.3°C) for zircon crystallization. These characteristics together with the moderate Mg# [100Mg/(Mg + Fe)] values (44–55), Fe + Mg + Ti (millications) = 130–175, and Al–(Na + K + 2Ca) (millications) = 5–50 may suggest that these rocks have been derived from the dehydration partial melting of quartz–feldspathic meta‐igneous lower crust.