Inverse problem theory to chemo-poroelastic parameters estimation: an analytical/experimental investigation

Shale formation swelling is one of the main factors affecting wellbore instability and associated problems in drilling operation. In order to eliminate these problems, it is important to investigate formation characteristics and understand mechanisms of rock-fluid interaction, from chemical/mechanical point of view. Shale membrane efficiency is known as an important parameter affecting wellbore instability. In order to measure this parameter, many mathematical models and experimental efforts have been carried out which consider mechanical-chemical processes for rock-fluid interactions. In this study, the field equations governing the problem have been derived based on the linear chemo-poroelastic theory and solved using analytical/numerical methods. Afterward, a comprehensive workflow to characterize the chemo-poroelastic parameters of illite-rich shale is conducted in the laboratory. In fact, mineralogical and apparent properties of shale sample have been described and some setups were performed such as triaxial test and membrane efficiency. Then genetic algorithm has been applied to solve an inverse problem and get a match between experimental data and modeling results. Ultimately, the three important properties in shale-fluid interactions, i.e., shale membrane efficiency, hydraulic, and chemical diffusivity coefficient have been estimated. Comparing the simulation results with the experimental data indicates that the simulation model can appropriately simulate the pore pressure transmission test. With this approach, the required parameters can be estimated with good accuracy without using time-consuming and costly tests.     

Evaluation of rainfall spatial correlation effect on rainfall-runoff modeling uncertainty,considering 2-copula

Lack of accuracy of rainfall-runoff simulation (RRS) remains critical for some applications. Among various sources of uncertainty, precipitation plays a particular role. Rainfall rates as the main input data of RRS are of the first factors controlling the accuracy. In addition to the depth, spatial and temporal distributions of rainfall impact the flood discharge. Most of the previous studies on RRS uncertainty have ignored rainfall spatial distribution, where in large catchments, it is necessary to be modeled explicitly. Karoon III is one most important basin of the Iran because of the Karoon III dam in the outlet. In the present work, effect of spatial correlation of rainfall on HEC-HMS (SMA) continuous RRS uncertainty is evaluated using 2variate copula (2copula). Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) approach was used to consider the rainfall spatial dependence. To reduce the computational expense, sampling efficiency and convergence for MCS, Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) was used. Copula functions consider wide range of marginal probability distribution functions (PDFs), eliminating limits of regular join PDFs. For this aim, two scenarios were investigated. In the first scenario, sub-basin rainfall was considered independent, and in the second scenario, 2copula was adopted to model spatial correlation of rainfall. Dimensionless rainfall depths were calculated for each sub-basin, and the PDFs were determined. The generated random dimensionless rainfalls were reweighted and multiplied by watershed’s mean rainfall value. Stochastic Climate Library was used to generate continuous daily rainfalls. Sampling from dimensionless rainfalls using LHS algorithm, 100 runs of calibrated model-simulated 100 flows for each day following MCS, and 80 % certainty bound was calculated. Results showed that considering dependence decreased 18 % of the maximum uncertainty bound width, so the methodology could be recommended for decreasing predicted runoff error.     

Reservoir operation using system dynamics under climate change impacts: a case study of Yamchi reservoir,Iran

This paper proposes a decision support system for Yamchi reservoir operation in semi-arid region of Iran. The paper consists of the following steps: Firstly, the potential impacts of climate change on the streamflow are predicted. The study then presents the projections of future changes in temperature and precipitation under A2 scenario using the LARS-WG downscaling model and under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) in the northwestern of Iran. To do so, a general circulation model of HadCM3 is downscaled by using the LARS-WG model. As a result, the average temperature, for the horizon 2030 (2011–2030), will increase by 0.77 °C and precipitation will decrease by 11 mm. Secondly, the downscaled variables are used as input to the artificial neural network to investigate the possible impact of climate change on the runoffs. Thirdly, the system dynamics model is employed to model different scenarios for reservoir operation using the Vensim software. System dynamics is an effective approach for understanding the behavior of complex systems. Simulation results demonstrate that the water shortage in different sectors (including agriculture, domestic, industry, and environmental users) will be enormously increased in the case of business-as-usual strategy. In this research, by providing innovative management strategies, including deficit irrigation, the vulnerability of reservoir operation is reduced. The methodology is evaluated by using different modeling tests which then motivates using the methodology for other arid/semi-arid regions.     

A correlation between P-wave velocity and Schmidt hardness with mechanical properties of travertine building stones

As known, P-wave velocity and Schmidt hardness are non-destructive tests, which have been used for many years in geological, geotechnical, and civil engineering as an index tests for a quick assessment of rocks mechanical properties due to its rapidity and easiness, and non-destructiveness. The purpose of this study is to investigate the correlation between P-wave velocity and Schmidt hardness with some of mechanical properties of travertine building stones by empirical equations. Moreover, we have compared the accuracy of P-wave velocity and Schmidt hardness to estimate the mechanical properties of rocks. For this purpose, 15 types of travertine have been collected from various quarries of Iran and tested. The tests include the determination of P-wave velocity and Schmidt hardness, and mechanical properties include the unconfined compressive strength, Brazilian tensile strength, and point load strength. Using data analysis, empirical equations have been developed for estimating the mechanical properties from P-wave velocity and Schmidt hardness. To check the validity of the empirical equations, a t test was performed, which confirmed the validity of the proposed empirical equations. Moreover, the results show that P-wave velocity appears to be more reliable than the Schmidt hardness for estimating the mechanical properties. Consequently, we propose empirical equations avoiding from cumbersome and time consuming tests for determining the mechanical properties of rocks.     

Chemical zoning of Ca-amphiboles in amphibolites,from the Hamedan area,West Iran

Amphibolite layers of the Hamedan area (Sanandaj-Sirjan zone, west Iran) contain amphibole crystals with strong optical zoning. These amphibolites occur as interlayers in middle Jurassic, Buchan-type andalusite-garnet-staurolite and sillimanite-garnet-andalusite schist of the area that were intruded by late Jurassic magmatic bodies of the Alvand plutonic complex. Electron microprobe analyses results show that the zoned amphiboles have ferrohornblende cores that change to ferroedenite toward the rims. The core-to rim increase of Al, Fe, Na, and K and decrease of Si and Mg along with edenitic substitution in amphiboles is consistent with increase in metamorphic grade. Thermobarometry calculations based on amphibole composition and hornblende-plagioclase thermometry provided 492 to 508 ^o C and 4.3 to 4.9 kbar for the inner cores, 495 to 514 ^o C and 4.5 to 5.1 kbar for the outer cores, 538 to 564 ^o C and 5.3 to 5.8 kbar for the inner rims and 552 to 573 ^o C and 5.5 to 5.9 kbar for the outer rims, respectively. These results point to a nearly isobaric prograde P-T path for the Hamedan area amphibolites, compatible with a metamorphic evolution dominated by the thermal perturbation associated with the late Jurassic magmatism of the northern Sanandaj-Sirjan zone.     

Groundwater risk assessment based on optimization framework using DRASTIC method

Due to anthropogenic influences and large amounts of pollutant released into the groundwater, it is vital to investigate groundwater quality and to characterize susceptible areas to contamination. In this paper, a new optimization-based methodology is proposed for determining groundwater risk using DRASTIC model based on genetic algorithm optimization model and Wilcoxon test. The correlation coefficient between DRASTIC/modified DRASTIC indices and nitrate concentrations in monitoring wells is used as a criteria for evaluating the efficiency of the proposed models. In this regard, because of the unsatisfactory original DRASTIC’s result, sensitivity analysis, genetic algorithm (GA), and Wilcoxon test (1945) are carried out to tackle the subjectivity associated with the original DRASTIC model and obtain better and reliable results. The results indicate that application of Wilcoxon test and GA optimization outperforms the others. Consequently, the correlation coefficient increased remarkably as compared to the original DRASTIC model (from 0.57 to 0.82). The proposed optimization process is adaptable to be applied in different case studies; mainly since it has the ability to optimize the weights of the model based on hydrogeological characteristics of the aquifer. Finally, the risk maps of the models are prepared using ArcGIS® to determine the most vulnerable areas.     

Erratum to: A spatio-temporal three-dimensional conceptualization and simulation of Dera Ismail Khan alluvial aquifer in visual MODFLOW: a case study from Pakistan

The Gour Oumelalen area exposes Paleoproterozoic (1.9 Ga) marbles and calc-silicate granulites. Some marbles show a specific mineralogy characterized by the presence of a highly aluminous clinopyroxene with Al₂O₃ content exceeding16 wt%. This clinopyroxene shows a marked zoning with a hedenbergitic core rimmed by fassaite. Phase relations are expressed by spectacular reaction textures in calc-silicate granulites as Opx + Cpx + Pl + H₂O  == > Grt + Qtz ± Am and Cpx + Ilm + Pl ± Mt = > Grt + Qtz + Spn. In olivine-bearing marbles, clinopyroxene and dolomite occur around olivine and calcite. According to thermodynamic modeling in the Na₂O–CaO–FeO–MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂–H₂O–TiO₂–Fe₂O₃ (NCFMASHTO) system, the first stage of metamorphism is located at 800 °C and 6–7 kbar, which is followed by an increase in pressure at 9–10 kbar and 800 °C and an isobaric cooling at 680 °C. The deduced anticlockwise P–T path is consistent with a granulitic metamorphism occurring in an active continental margin context.