Coherence among climate signals, precipitation, and groundwater

Climate signals may affect groundwater level at different time scales in different geographical regions, and those patterns or time scales can be estimated using coherence analysis. This study shows that the synthesis effort required to search for patterns at the physical geography scale is possible, and this approach should be applicable in other regions of the world. The relations between climate signals, Southern Oscillation Index, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, North Pacific Pattern (SOI, PDO, NAO, and NP), precipitation, and groundwater level in three geographical areas of Wisconsin are examined using a three-tiered coherence analysis. In the high frequency band (<4(-1) cycles/year), there is a significant coherence between four climate signals and groundwater level in all three areas. In the low frequency band (>8(-1) to ≤23(-1) cycles/year), we found significant coherence between the SOI and NP signals and groundwater level in the forested area, characterized by shallow wells constructed in sand and gravel aquifers. In the high frequency band, there is significant coherence between the four climate signals and precipitation in all three areas. In the low frequency band, the four climate signals have effect on precipitation in the agricultural area, and SOI and NP have effect on precipitation in the forested and driftless areas. Precipitation affects groundwater level in all three areas, and in high, low and intermediate frequency bands. In the agricultural area, deeper aquifers and a more complex hydrostratigraphy and land use dilute the effect of precipitation on groundwater level for interdecadal frequencies.     

A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Makran subduction zone at the northwestern Indian Ocean

A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment is performed for the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) at the northwestern Indian Ocean employing a combination of probability evaluation of offshore earthquake occurrence and numerical modeling of resulting tsunamis. In our method, we extend the Kijko and Sellevoll’s (1992) probabilistic analysis from earthquakes to tsunamis. The results suggest that the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan, as well as Muscat, Oman are the most vulnerable areas among those studied. The probability of having tsunami waves exceeding 5 m over a 50-year period in these coasts is estimated as 17.5%. For moderate tsunamis, this probability is estimated as high as 45%. We recommend the application of this method as a fresh approach for doing probabilistic hazard assessment for tsunamis. Finally, we emphasize that given the lack of sufficient information on the mechanism of large earthquake generation in the MSZ, and inadequate data on Makran’s paleo and historical earthquakes, this study can be regarded as the first generation of PTHA for this region and more studies should be done in the future.     

A new empirical estimator of coseismic landslide displacement for Zagros Mountain region (Iran)

Earthquake-induced landslides are responsible worldwide for significant socioeconomic losses and historically have a prominent position in the list of natural hazards affecting the Iran plateau. As a step toward the development of tools for the assessment and the management of this kind of hazard at regional scale, an empirical estimator of coseismic displacements along potential sliding surfaces was obtained through a regression analysis for the Zagros region, a mountainous Iranian region subjected to earthquake-induced landslides. This estimator, based on the Newmark’s model, allows to evaluate the expected permanent displacement (named “Newmark displacement”) induced by seismic shaking of defined energy on potential sliding surface characterized by a given critical acceleration. To produce regression models for Newmark displacement estimators, a data set was constructed for different critical acceleration values on the basis of 108 accelerometric recordings from 80 Iranian earthquakes with moment magnitudes between 3.6 and 7. The empirical estimator has a general form, proposed by Jibson (Eng Geol 91:209–218, 2007), relating Newmark displacement to Arias intensity (as parameter representing the energy of the seismic forces) and to critical acceleration (as parameter representing the dynamic shear resistance of the sliding mass). As an example of application, this relation was employed to provide a basic document for earthquake-induced landslide hazard assessment at regional scale, according to a method proposed by Del Gaudio et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 93:557–569, 2003), applied to the whole Iranian territory, including Zagros region. This method consists in evaluating the shear resistance required to slopes to limit the occurrence of seismically induced failures, on the basis of the Newmark’s model. The obtained results show that the exposure to landslide seismic induction is maximum in the Alborz Mountains region, where critical accelerations up to ~0.1 g are required to limit the probability of seismic triggering of coherent type landslides within 10% in 50 years.     

Microbiostratigraphy of Kazhdumi Formation in the Northwestern Shiraz (Southwest Iran) on the Basis of Foraminifera and Calcareous Algae

The middle Cretaceous Kazhdumi Formation,with a thickness of 222 m,belongs to the Bangestan Group and occurs in the Zagros folded zone in southwest Iran.The lower boundary with the Dariyan Formation is disconformable,which is recognized by iron oxides and glauconite.The recognized microfossils are Valvulammina sp.,Scandonea sp.,Daxia cenomana,Choffatela sp., Pseudolituonella reicheli and calcareous algae-Lithocodium aggregation(which belongs to the Sarvak Formation),representing the beginning of Cenomani...     

A hybrid computational approach to formulate soil deformation moduli obtained from PLT

In this study, new empirical equations were developed to predict the soil deformation moduli utilizing a hybrid method coupling genetic programming and simulated annealing, called GP/SA. The proposed models relate secant (E_s), unloading (E_u) and reloading (E_r) moduli obtained from plate load–settlement curves to the basic soil physical properties. Several models with different combinations of the influencing parameters were developed and checked to select the best GP/SA models. The database used for developing the models was established upon a series of plate load tests (PLT) conducted on different soil types at various depths. The validity of the models was tested using parts of the test results that were not included in the analysis. The validation of the models was further verified using several statistical criteria. A traditional GP analysis was performed to benchmark the GP/SA models. The contributions of the parameters affecting E_s, E_u and E_r were analyzed through a sensitivity analysis. The proposed models are able to estimate the soil deformation moduli with an acceptable degree of accuracy. The E_s prediction model has a remarkably better performance than the models developed for predicting E_u and E_r. The simplified formulations for E_s, E_u and E_r provide significantly better results than the GP-based models and empirical models found in the literature.     

Supported Axisymmetric Tunnels Within Linear Viscoelastic Burgers Rocks

An exact closed form solution is derived for the mechanical behaviour of a linear viscoelastic Burgers rock around an axisymmetric tunnel, supported by a linear elastic ring. Analytical formulae are provided for the displacement of the rock/lining interface and for the pressure exerted by the rock on the lining, taking into account the stiffness and its installation time. Results calculated from these formulae do validate the corresponding numerical results of a 2D finite differences code. Further, comparison to previous existing solutions for the same viscoelastic model indicates similarities and differences. A parametric study is performed to investigate the effect of the viscoelastic constants, the stiffness and installation time of the support. The derived closed form solution is used to construct the time-dependent Supported Ground Reaction Curves of the viscoelastic rock, i.e. the time contour plots on the convergence confinement diagram. The importance of the effect of the support on the restrained rock creep and the exerted pressure on the lining, during the design life of a structure, is examined.     

Hydrochemistry, mineralogy and chemical fractionation of mine and processing wastes associated with porphyry copper mines: A case study from the Sarcheshmeh mine, SE Iran

The Sarcheshmeh is one of the largest Oligo-Miocene porphyry Cu deposits in the world. Comparative hydrochemical, mineralogical and chemical fractionation associated with mining efflorescence salts and processing wastes of this mine are discussed. Hydrochemical results showed that rock waste dumps, reject wastes and old impoundments of tailings are the main sources of acid mine drainage waters (AMD) that contain potentially toxic metals such as Cd, Co, Cu, Mn, Ni and Zn as well as Al. Episodic fluxes of highly contaminated acidic waters were produced in a tailings dam over a short period of time. Secondary soluble minerals provide important controls on the quality of AMD produced, especially in old, dry tailings impoundments. Secondary sulfate minerals such as gypsum, magnesiocopiapite, hydronium jarosite, kornelite and coquimbite were found in rock waste drainages and in old weathered reject wastes. Highly soluble secondary minerals such as gypsum, eriochalcite, and bonattite are also observed in an evaporative layer on old tailings impoundments. Chemical fractionation patterns of potentially toxic elements showed that the geochemical behavior of metals is primarily controlled by the mineralogical composition of waste samples. Elements such as Co, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni and Zn are readily released into the water soluble fraction from efflorescence salts associated with rock waste drainages, as well as from the evaporative layer of old tailings. Potentially toxic elements, such as As, Mo and Pb, are principally adsorbed or co-precipitated with amorphous and crystalline Fe oxides, but they may also be associated with oxidizing, primary sulfides and residual fractions. Following the development of the dammed tailings pond, the secondary minerals were dissolved, producing acidic waters contaminated by Al (154 mg L⁻¹), Cu (150 mg L⁻¹), Cd (0.31 m gL⁻¹), Co (2.13 mg L⁻¹), Mn (73.7 mg L⁻¹), Ni (1.74 mg L⁻¹), Zn (20.3 mg L⁻¹) and Cl (1690 mg L⁻¹). Therefore, the potential use of recycled water from the Sarcheshmenh dammed tailings pond is diminished by the presence of corrosive ions like Cl⁻ in highly acidic fluids that promote corrosion of pipes and pumps in the water recycling system.     

Scaling property of regional floods in New South Wales Australia

Regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) is often used in hydrology to estimate flood quantiles when there is a limitation of at-site recorded flood data. One of the commonly used RFFA methods is the index flood method, which is based on the assumptions that a region satisfies criterion of simple scaling and it can be treated homogeneous. Another RFFA method is quantile regression technique where prediction equations are developed for flood quantiles of interest as function of catchment characteristics. In this paper, the scaling property of regional floods in New South Wales (NSW) State in Australia is investigated. The results indicate that the annual maximum floods in NSW satisfy a simple scaling assumption. The application of a heterogeneity test, however, reveals that NSW flood data set does not satisfy the criteria for a homogeneous region. Finally, a set of prediction equations are developed for NSW using quantile regression technique; an independent test shows that these equations can provide reasonably accurate design flood estimates with a median relative error of about 27%.     

Combining AHP with GIS for Predictive Cu Porphyry Potential Mapping: A Case Study in Ahar Area (NW,Iran)

Using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method for multi-index evaluation has special advantages, while the use of geographic information systems (GIS) is suitable for spatial analysis. Combining AHP with GIS provides an effective approach for studies of mineral potential mapping evaluation. Selection of potential areas for exploration is a complex process in which many diverse criteria are to be considered. In this article, AHP and GIS are used for providing potential maps for Cu porphyry mineralization on the basis of criteria derived from geologic, geochemical, and geophysical, and remote sensing data including alteration and faults. Each criterion was evaluated with the aid of AHP and the result mapped by GIS. This approach allows the use of a mixture of quantitative and qualitative information for decision-making. The results of application in this article provide acceptable outcomes for copper porphyry exploration.     

Evaluation of correlations between precipitation, groundwater fluctuations, and lake level fluctuations using spectral methods (Wisconsin, USA)

Spectral methods and 2 years of daily data were used to estimate the phase lag between precipitation and groundwater-level response, and two decades of quarterly data were used to analyze the interaction between precipitation, lake levels and groundwater in the Trout Lake watershed located in Vilas County, Wisconsin, USA. The phase-lag function between precipitation and groundwater response is used to estimate recharge travel time. The recharge travel time and precipitation–groundwater–lake interactions have been traditionally studied using time-domain methods such as physically-based modeling. In this article, the innovative and efficient use of spectral methods is demonstrated to uncover the time scales that are significant in those interactions and estimate the recharge travel time, which is extracted from the underlying daily time series data. The results consistently show that precipitation leads groundwater-level response by up to 5 days in all cases. The effects of precipitation on lake and groundwater levels display strong similarities. Both the precipitation–lake level and the precipitation–groundwater level coherency functions show significant peaks at interannual and seasonal frequencies. The groundwater level–lake level coherency function shows a significant, broad peak at interannual frequencies, and no significant peak at seasonal frequencies, demonstrating the predominance of annual and lower frequencies in groundwater–lake interaction.