Teleconnections between oceanic–atmospheric indices and drought over Iran using quantile regressions

ABSTRACT

In this research, the Bayesian quantile regression model is applied to investigate the teleconnections between large oceanic–atmospheric indices and drought standardized precipitation index (SPI) in Iran. The 12-month SPI time series from 138 synoptic stations for 1952–2014 were selected as the drought index. Three oceanic–atmospheric indices, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation Index (MEI), were selected as covariates. The results show that NAO has the weakest impact on drought in different quantiles and different regions in Iran. La Niña conditions amplified droughts through all SPI quantiles in western, Caspian Sea coastal regions and southern regions. The positive phase of MEI significantly modulates low SPI quantiles (i.e. drought conditions) throughout the Zagros region, Caspian Sea coastal regions and southern regions. The study shows that the effect of large oceanic–atmospheric indices have heterogeneous impacts on extreme dry and wet conditions.     

Preparation,Characterization of a Novel Chelating Resin Functionalized with o‐Hydroxybenzamide and Its Application for Preconcentration of Trace Metal Ions

A stable extractor of metal ions was synthesized through azo linking of o‐hydroxybenzamide (HBAM) with Amberlite XAD‐4 (AXAD‐4) and was characterized by elemental analyses, IR spectral, and thermal studies. Its water regain value and hydrogen ion capacity were found to be 12.93 and 7.68 mmol g^?1, respectively. The optimum pH range (with the half‐loading time [min], t_1/2) for Cu(II), Cr(III), Ni(II), Co(II), Zn(II), and Pb(II) ions were 2.0–4.0 (5.5), 2.0–4.0 (7.0), 2.0–4.0 (8.0), 4.0–6.0 (9.0), 4.0–6.0 (12.0), and 2.0–4.0 (15.0), respectively. Comparison of breakthrough and overall capacities of the metals ascertains the high degree of column utilization (>70%). The overall sorption capacities for Cu(II), Cr(III), Ni(II), Co(II), Zn(II), and Pb(II) ions were found to be 0.29, 0.22, 0.20, 0.16, 0.13, and 0.11 mmol g^?1 with the corresponding preconcentration factor of 400, 380, 380, 360, 320, and 320, respectively. The limit of preconcentration was in the range of 5.0–6.3 ng mL^?1. The detection limit for Cu(II), Cr(III), Ni(II), Co(II), Zn(II), and Pb(II) were found to be 0.39, 0.49, 0.42, 0.59, 0.71, and 1.10 ng mL^?1, respectively. The AXAD‐4‐HBAM has been successfully applied for the analysis of natural water, multivitamin formulation, infant milk substitute, hydrogenated oil, urine, and fish.     

A synergetic use of satellite imagery from SAR and optical sensors to improve coastal flood mapping in the Gulf of Mexico

This work proposes a method for detecting inundation between semi‐diurnal low and high water conditions in the northern Gulf of Mexico using high‐resolution satellite imagery. Radarsat 1, Landsat imagery and aerial photography from the Apalachicola region in Florida were used to demonstrate and validate the algorithm. A change detection approach was implemented through the analysis of red, green and blue (RGB) false colour composites image to emphasise differences in high and low tide inundation patterns. To alleviate the effect of inherent speckle in the SAR images, we also applied ancillary optical data. The flood‐prone area for the site was delineated a priori through the determination of lower and higher water contour lines with Landsat images combined with a high‐resolution digital elevation model. This masking technique improved the performance of the proposed algorithm with respect to detection techniques using the entire Radarsat scene. The resulting inundation maps agreed well with historical aerial photography as the probability of detection reached 83%. The combination of SAR data and optical images, when coupled with a high‐resolution digital elevation model, was shown to be useful for inundation mapping and have a great potential for evaluating wetting/drying algorithms of inland and coastal hydrodynamic models. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrologic response of a Hawaiian watershed to future climate change scenarios

The impact of potential future climate change scenarios on streamflow and evapotranspiration (ET) in a mountainous Hawaii watershed was studied using the distributed hydrology soil vegetation model (DHSVM). The hydrologic response of the watershed was simulated for 43 years for different levels of atmospheric CO₂ (330, 550, 710 and 970 ppm), temperature (+1.1 and + 6.4 °C) and precipitation (±5%, ±10% and ±20%) on the basis of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR4 projections under current, B1, A1B1 and A1F1 emission scenarios. Vegetation leaf conductance and leaf area index were modified to reflect the increase in CO₂ concentration. The relative departure of streamflow and ET from their levels during the reference scenarios was calculated on a monthly and annual basis. Results of this study indicate that the streamflow and ET are less sensitive to changes in temperature compared with changes in precipitation. However, temperature increase coupled with precipitation showed significant effect on ET and streamflow. Changes in leaf conductance and leaf area index with increasing CO₂ concentration under A1F1 scenario had a significant effect on ET and subsequently on streamflow. Evapotranspiration is less sensitive than streamflow for a similar level of change in precipitation. On the basis of a range of climate change scenarios, DHSVM predicted a change in ET by ±10% and streamflow between ?51% and 90%. From the six ensemble mean scenarios for AR4 A1B, simulations suggest reduction in streamflow by 6.7% to 17.2%. These reductions would produce severe impact on water availability in the region. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Phase and amplitude error indices for error quantification in pseudodynamic testing

Real-time pseudodynamic (PSD) and hybrid PSD testing methods are displacement controlled experimental techniques that are used to investigate the dynamic behaviour of complex and load rate-dependent structures. Because the imposed command displacements are not predefined but generated during the test based on measured feedback, these methods are inherently prone to error propagation, which can affect the accuracy and even the stability of the entire experiment. As a result, to have these experimental methods as reliable tools, the accuracy of the test results needs to be assessed by carefully monitoring, and if possible, quantifying the errors involved. In this paper, phase and amplitude error indices (PAEI) are introduced to identify the experimental errors through uncoupled closed-form equations. Unlike the indicators that have been previously introduced in the literature for error identification purposes, PAEI do not use test setup specific parameters in their formulation, and can quantify the errors independent of the amplitude of the command displacements. As such, PAEI can be used as standard tools for assessing the quality of the experiments performed in different laboratories or under different conditions. Additionally, because they can quantify the error, when implemented online, PAEI have the potential to be incorporated in the control law and thereby improve the actuator control during the tests. The formulation and implementation of PAEI are provided in this paper. The enhanced performance of the proposed indices is demonstrated by processing several different measured and command signals using PAEI and comparing the results with those revealed by the previous indicators. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Practical seismic resilience evaluation and crisis management planning through GIS-based vulnerability assessment of buildings

The objective of this paper is to demonstrate how assessment of seismic vulnerability can be effective in protection against earthquakes.Findings are reported from a case study in a densely populated urban area near an active fault,utilizing practical methods and exact engineering data.Vulnerability factors were determined due to technical considerations,and a field campaign was performed to collect the required data.Multi-criteria decision making was carried out by means of an analytical hierarchy process including a fuzzy standardization.Earthquake scenarios were applied through an implicit vulnerability model.GIS was utilized and the results were analyzed by classifying the state of vulnerability in levels as very low,low,moderate,high,and very high.Seismic resilience was evaluated as vulnerabilities below the moderate state,being about 40% in an intensity of 6 Mercalli and less than 10% in 10 Mercalli.It is concluded that seismic resilience in the area studied is not acceptable,the area is vulnerable in the expected scenarios,and due to the high seismicity of the region,proper crisis management planning is required in parallel with attempts toward retrofitting.In this regard,an emergency map was developed with reference to the assessed vulnerabilities.     

Experimental investigation of density current patterns using dynamic fractal analysis

Density currents are caused by a difference in density,though low,of an entering fluid with the ambient fluid.This type of current is two-phased and found on riverbeds or in reservoirs behind dams,and is nonlinear in nature,complex,and sensitive to initial conditions.Fractal geometry is used as a powerful tool for studying complex natural phenomena.Using experimental studies and changes in inlet current conditions,the fractal and multi-fractal analyses of the interface between the density current and the ambient fluid were done.In addition,a search was made to find a possible connection between the nonlinear patterns.According to the results,with an increase in the inlet discharge and inlet density of the current the fractal dimension decreased.Further,the smaller the range of the singularity spectrum diagram was,i.e.,the more it was less than 0.34,the lower the system's tendency was to be multi-fractal,and the system sensitive to large local changes.In the interface between the density current and the ambient fluid,using the fractal dimension-based Richardson number could improve experimental data by 12.4%.Moreover,with an increase in the Richardson number,the Reynolds number of the current decreased.Further,upon considering the fractal dimension,the Reynolds number improved by 23%and a good correlation with a coefficient of determination of 0.76.     

Organochlorinated compounds in Caspian Sea sediments

Several organochlorinated contaminants, including numerous pesticides, were determined in coastal sediments from the Caspian Sea. The most important contaminants were p,p'-DDT (up to 7400 pg g(-1)) and its breakdown products, p,p'-DDD (up to 3400 pg g(-1)) and p,p'-DDE (up to 1300 pg g(-1)). Although the contamination was most severe in Azerbaijan, the sediment concentrations and percentage distribution of the three DDT-related compounds indicated that such contamination constitutes a contemporary and ubiquitous problem in the Caspian Sea. Lindane represented the second most significant contaminant, particularly in the Russian Federation, with concentrations up to 609 pg g(-1). The concentrations of HCB and other chlorinated pesticides (cis- and trans-chlordane, methoxychlor, heptachlor, heptachlor epoxide, aldrin, endrin, and endosulfans) were lower and not generally of concern, but the pesticides did demonstrate markedly different distributions reflecting differing agricultural usage in the region. The concentrations of Sigma PCBs were also quite low and ranged from 0.03 to 6.4 ng g(-1), with the highest amounts in the Russian Federation and Azerbaijan.     

Spatio-temporal variation of transition probability of bursting events over the ripples at the bed of open channel

In this study, the turbulent flow structure over the ripples at the bed of open channel was investigated experimentally. An analysis of bursting process was used to recognize the susceptible regions for sediment entrainment and deposition over the ripples. Two artificial ripples were built according to the ripples, formed by nature. Three different configurations of ripples were used by changing the wavelength. According to analysis of bursting event it was found that at the stoss side of ripples, quadrants (II) and (IV) were dominant to the quadrants (I) and (III) and at the lee side of the ripple it was vice versa. Also the transition probabilities of the bursting events were determined. The results showed that stable organizations of each class of the events had highest transition probabilities whereas cross organizations had lowest transition probabilities. Additionally, an effort was made to find the average inclination angle of the bursting events in quadrants (II) and (IV). The results showed that the mean angle of events in quadrants (II) and (IV) increases at the downstream of stoss side to the crest in each experimental test. Also, at the lee side where the sediment particles were deposited, the inclination angles had the highest values.     

Interception losses in three non‐native Hawaiian forest stands

Interception losses in stands of non‐native trees in Hawaiian forests and their potential negative impacts on fresh water availability are poorly understood. In this study, a canopy water balance analysis was conducted to estimate interception losses using measurements of rainfall (RF), throughfall (TF), and stemflow (SF) at three locations, each dominated by one or more of the following non‐native tree species: Psidium cattleianum Sabine (Strawberry guava), Schinus terebinthifolius Raddi (Christmas berry), Syzygium cumini (L.) Skeels (Java plum), and Coffea arabica L. (Coffee). Mean TF expressed as percentage of total RF was the lowest (43.3%) under a monotypic stand of P. cattleianum and the highest (56.5%) under mixture of S. terebinthifolius, P. cattleianum, and S. cumini. Observed SF was highest (33.9%) under P. cattleianum and lowest (3.6%) under a mixture of S. terebinthifolius, P. cattleianum, and S. cumini. The relatively high SF under P. cattleianum can be attributed to its smooth bark, stem density, and steep branching. The mean observed canopy interception varied between 23% under P. cattleianum and 45% at the site dominated by C. arabica. Mean direct TF coefficients from individual events at each location ranged from a low of 0.36 under the canopy dominated by C. arabica to a high of 0.51 under the canopy dominated by S. terebinthifolius, P. cattleianum, and S. cumini. In contrast, the mean SF partitioning coefficients from individual storm events at each location ranged from a low of 0.05 under the canopy dominated by S. terebinthifolius, P. cattleianum, and S. cumini to a high of 0.37 under P. cattleianum. Mean canopy storage capacity was highest (1.90) at the site dominated by S. terebinthifolius, P. cattleianum, and S. cumini whereas trunk storage capacity was highest (0.54) under the P. cattleianum. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.