Development and application of a stochastic optimization model for groundwater management: crop pattern and conjunctive use consideration

The need for irrigation water in arid and semi-arid regions is mostly supplied by groundwater. Furthermore, the agricultural development in these areas is not generally based on a comprehensive plan, which can cause aquifers depletion. On the other hand, to properly manage an aquifer and to have an optimal crop plan, the stochastic nature of the different parameters of a groundwater system such as groundwater recharge and water demands should be taken into consideration. In this paper, we develop an explicit stochastic optimization model for Firouzabad aquifer in Iran. This formulation is based on the first and second moment analysis for groundwater head which has been initially proposed for surface water resources management by Fletcher and Ponnambalam. We extend the model to create a new random withdrawal policy for conjunctive use setting in which the randomness in available precipitation is taken into account. The interesting point is that the model provides the respective probabilities of shortage and surplus without imposing the extra decision variables into the optimization model. A genetic-based algorithm is used to solve the stochastic nonlinear and non-convex formulation. The outcome results indicate that the current crop pattern should be changed, that is, the allocated areas of some crops have to be meaningfully reduced. Finally, to validate our model efficiency, we demonstrate that how much close the statistical characteristics obtained from the optimization model are to those estimated from the Monte Carlo simulation. Furthermore, the optimal benefits obtained using the proposed optimization model are as suitable as the benefits achieved using the corresponding Monte Carlo-based optimization model.     

Analysis of long-term dependence phenomenon in Benue River flow process and its hypothesis testing

In this paper, the long-term dependence phenomenon （the Hurst Effect） which characterizes hydrological and other geophysical times series is studied. The long-term memory is analysed for both daily and monthly streamflow series of the Benue River at Makurdi, Nigeria by using heuristic methods and testing specifically the null hypothesis of short-term memory in the monthly flow series. Results obtained by applying heuristic procedures indicated that there may be the presence of long-term memory component in mean daily flow series but there is no discernible reason to suspect the presence in both average monthly and maximum monthly flow series （extreme event）. Hypothesis testing was conducted by using original and modified versions of rescaled range statistic. When the modified rescaled range, which accounts for short-term memory in the series, is used, the null hypothesis is accepted for both the average monthly and maximum monthly flow series, indicating little or no probable presence of long-term memory in the series. An identical conclusion is also arrived at when second null hypothesis for independence of the monthly flow series is tested. Therefore, apart from the mean daily flow series, there is little evidence of long-term dependence in the Benue River streamflow series at Makurdi. However, considering the limited length of data used, the results are inconclusive.     

Seasonal Shift in Community Structure of Periphytic Ciliates in Estuarine Waters in the Northern Bay of Bengal,Bangladesh

To investigate the seasonal heterogeneity of the periphytic ciliate communities, a 1-year baseline survey was conducted in the Karnaphuli River estuary, northern Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh. A total of 54 ciliate species were recorded, including seven common and 14 dominant species. Maximum species number was in autumn whereas maximum abundance was in winter; the minimum for both occurred in summer. Multivariate analyses, i.e., canonical analysis of principal coordinates (CAP) and principal co-ordinates analysis (PCoA), revealed a clear seasonal heterogeneity of community structure and environmental variables. Multivariate correlation analysis (RELATE) demonstrated that the community structure of the periphytic ciliate communities was significantly correlated with environmental variables, and best matching analysis (BIOENV) indicated that heterogeneity of community patterns was mainly driven by water temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, total dissolved solids and nutrients. Species richness and diversity peaked in autumn whereas species evenness peaked in summer. These results suggest that environmental conditions shape periphytic ciliate community structure, which is a potentially useful bio-indicator of estuarine water quality.     

Farmers’ perceptions of and adaptations to drought in Herat Province,Afghanistan

Drought is a significant natural hazard in Herat Province, Afghanistan. The objective of this study was to explore farmers’ perceptions of the drought’s prevalence and characteristics, its socioeconomic and environmental impacts, their strategies for coping with and mitigating it, and types of conflicts and resolution mechanisms. A questionnaire was completed by 147 farming households. The results indicate that farmers' perceptions regarding drought are in line with the results obtained using the precipitation data. Even though the respondents have religious belief in interpreting the weather related issues, they also perceived drought as the climatic and environmental factors such as increased temperature, decreased precipitation, and other factors like war, financial weakness, deforestation, over-exploitation of groundwater, lack of electricity supply etc. The results show that drought has had serious economic impacts, including loss of employment and reduction in crop yield and livestock production, which have reduced farmers’ livelihood options and weakened their financial situation. Social impacts have included migration, a sense of hopelessness and loss, conflicts over water, health problems, impacts on the schooling of children, malnutrition, and limits to food options. Significant environmental impacts such as an increase in temperature, pasture and forest degradation, deterioration of water quality, damage to fish and wildlife habitats, and groundwater depletion were also reported. Farmers used local techniques to adapt to drought and lessen its effects. Farmers perceived irrigation water to be a major source of conflict. Local elders, water-user associations, and formal courts were reported to be the most successful conflict resolution methods. It is expected that the results of this study will support policy makers within government and development agencies in Afghanistan to develop future drought adaptation policies.     

Milgromian dynamics and dwarf galaxies in galactic voids

We use kinematic data of 103 dwarf galaxies, obtained from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey catalog, to test the Milgromian dynamics (MOND) inside a galactic void. From this data, we compute the line-of-sight velocity dispersions of the dwarf galaxies in the frameworks of MOND and Newtonian dynamics without invoking any dark matter. The prediction for the line-of-sight velocity dispersions from MOND of 53 selected dwarf galaxies is compared with their measured values. For appropriate mass-to-light ratios in the range 1 to 5 for each individual dwarf galaxy, our results for the line-of-sight velocity dispersions predicted by MOND are more compatible with observations than those predicted by Newtonian dynamics.     

Mélange development in the Neyriz region of Zagros Orogen,Iran: Record of convergence and collision in the Neotethyan Realm

Mélanges are formed by sedimentary, tectonic and diapiric processes and are generally found in collisional belts. The Zagros Orogeny provides an intriguing geological laboratory for the study of mélange-forming processes during the progressive tectonic evolution of the Neotethys Ocean. Different types of tectonic and sedimentary mélanges occur in specific structural positions within the Zagros orogenic belt in the Neyriz Region (Iran). Based on their block-in-matrix fabrics, and tectonostratigraphic positions, we differentiated 14 different mélange types, which mark different episodes of the tectonic evolution of the Neyriz Region from the Cretaceous subduction to the Miocene collision. The Cretaceous subduction stage is recorded by volcanic-sedimentary mélanges (Mv). Sedimentary mélanges characterized by megabreccia from the Cretaceous limestone (Ms1) and Eocene polymictic megabreccia (Ms2) represent epi-nappe mélanges formed during the Palaeocene–Eocene in wedge-top basins. The ophiolite emplacement in the Oligocene resulted in local extensional tectonics in the upper part of the ophiolitic nappe, and deposition of a polymictic megabreccia (Ms3, Ms4). As the final production of the Neotethys Ocean closure and the Eurasian-Arabian collision, the sedimentary mélanges characterized by different types of chaotic rock units (Ms5, Ms6, Ms7 and Ms8 facies) were developed in front of the Cretaceous–Eocene nappes due to growth of the orogenic wedge in the Miocene. Our findings indicate that the recognition and distinction of different types of mélange may provide additional constraints for a better understanding of the tectono-sedimentary evolution of the Neotethyan region.     

Assessment of Empirical Pressure–Volume–Temperature Correlations in Gas Condensate Reservoir Fluids: Case Studies

Natural Resources Research - Measurement and modeling of fluid properties and phase behavior of gas condensate reservoir fluids are challenging tasks. Many researchers proposed various empirical...     

Geochemical Anomaly and Mineral Prospectivity Mapping for Vein-Type Copper Mineralization,Kuhsiah-e-Urmak Area,Iran: Application of Sequential Gaussian Simulation and Multivariate Regression Analysis

Natural Resources Research - In this paper, sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS) and number–size (N–S) fractal modeling were used for copper geochemical anomaly mapping in the western...     

Nagmati River Sub-watershed Prioritization Using PCA,Integrated PCWS,and AHP: A Case Study

Prioritization of potential regions that are severely threatened by soil erosion is a prerequisite for formulating and implementing conservation measures and management practices, particularly in fragile semiarid regions. The present study prioritized eight delineated Nagmati sub-watersheds located in the Kutch District of Gujarat State, India, based on three approaches, namely principal component analysis (PCA), integrated PCA with weighted sum (I-PCWS), and analytical hierarchy process (AHP), and on 10 morphometric erosion risk parameters (ERPs). Sub-watersheds were categorized into three priority classes, namely high, medium, and low. PCA retrieved the three most significant ERPs (i.e., length of overland flow, Lo; drainage texture, Dt; and compactness coefficient, Cc) explaining 86.876% of the variance and exhibiting the highest correlation, i.e., r?=?0.961, 0.986, and 0.934 for the first three principal components. Sub-watersheds SW2 and SW7 were rated high priority, SW1 was rated low priority, and the rest were rated medium priority. The I-PCWS approach revealed that sub-watersheds SW2, SW6, and SW7 were in high-priority zone, followed by SW3, SW4, and SW8 in medium-priority zone and SW1 and SW5 in the low-priority zone. The AHP assigned the highest and lowest ranks to “Lo” and “Cc,” respectively, with consistency ratio of 8.1% and principal eigenvalue of 11.075. Results from AHP revealed sub-watershed SW2 to be the highest priority and sub-watersheds SW1 and SW5 to be the lowest priority. Out of eight prioritized sub-watersheds from three approaches, five were found to be the common priority classes, with SW2, SW6, and SW7 demanding urgent implementation of efficient soil conservation measures to prevent further degradation of the identified regions. Results from I-PCWS approach closely complied with the existing landforms within the study area, and this approach was considered more reliable and robust than the other two approaches. The methodology adopted in this study can be applied to different vulnerable, data-scarce regions to sustainably manage and conserve soil erosion through efficiently framed strategies.

     

晴空回波的大气风温湿结构及双偏振雷达参量分析

晴空回波有助于认识大气的风温湿结构,双偏振多普勒天气雷达为探测晴空大气提供了丰富信息。本文以2015年夏季南京信息工程大学C波段双偏振雷达探测的晴空回波为例,结合探空资料分析大气风温湿结构及晴空回波的影响因素,分析了晴空大气的反射率因子Z、径向速度Vr以及差分反射率因子ZDR回波特征。研究表明:大气温、压、湿梯度造成折射指数分布不均以及背景风场引起的湍流增强,均可造成晴空回波,其回波机理为湍流散射;差分反射率因子受到多普勒效应的影响;在风场及大气湍团干湿特性不同的情况下,晴空回波的差分反射率因子呈现不同的特征。研究结果有益于深入认识大气风温湿结构特征对雷达电磁波的散射的影响以及雷达资料质量控制。