Steady critical discharge rates from vertical and horizontal wells in fresh–saline aquifers with sharp interfaces

In this study, the critical (or maximum) discharge rates before saline water enters a well were determined for vertical and horizontal wells in a freshwater aquifer which is separated from a static saline aquifer by a sharp interface. Flow around the well was solved by integration of a point sink solution along the well axis, and both the critical discharge rate and critical interface rise were determined through a comparison of the heads and vertical gradients at the saline–fresh water interface. The rates were determined for vertical and horizontal wells with various lengths and depths for different aquifer salinities. Results were generalized by drawing dimensionless type curves. The results showed that the dimensionless total critical discharge rates are higher for the longer horizontal wells and longer vertical wells with a certain bottom depth, and they almost linearly decrease with well depth at rates of 0.7–0.9. For the dimensionless well length of 0.2, the dimensionless total discharge rate of a horizontal well is about 0.1 more than that of a vertical well with the same length and well-top depth. Also, the critical discharge rates per unit length of well are inversely proportional to well length and remarkably higher for shallower wells. Additionally, the critical pumping rate is proportional to the salinity difference of the aquifers. These results were confirmed by comparison to existing solutions for vertical wells with dimensionless lengths of 0.2, 0.5 and 0.6, and for critical interface rises in the range of 0.75–0.9.     

Investigation on the Effect of Geometrical and Geotechnical Parameters on Elongated Offshore Piles Using Fuzzy Inference Systems

Among numerous offshore structures used in oil extraction, jacket platforms are still the most favorable ones in shallow waters. In such structures, log piles are used to pin the substructure of the platform to the seabed. The pile’s geometrical and geotechnical properties are considered as the main parameters in designing these structures. In this study, ANSYS was used as the FE modeling software to study the geometrical and geotechnical properties of the offshore piles and their effects on supporting jacket platforms. For this purpose, the FE analysis has been done to provide the preliminary data for the fuzzy-logic post-process. The resulting data were implemented to create Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) classifications. The resultant data of the sensitivity analysis suggested that the orientation degree is the main factor in the pile’s geometrical behavior because piles which had the optimal operational degree of about 5° are more sustained. Finally, the results showed that the related fuzzified data supported the FE model and provided an insight for extended offshore pile designs.     

Weakly compressible SPH simulation of cnoidal waves with strong plunging breakers

Ocean Dynamics - Hydrodynamics of highly nonlinear cnoidal waves and their subsequent strong plunging breakers are among the least understood and most significant issues in coastal engineering. In...     

Woody species diversity and forest structure from lowland to montane forest in Hyrcanian forest ecoregion

Alborz Mountains host Caspian Hyrcanian forest ecoregion along the northern slopes and forest steppe ecoregion in highlands. Hyrcanian forest covers the southeastern part of Caucasus biodiversity hotspot and is of great biogeographic importance. Altitudinal pattern and correlation between woody species biodiversity (DIV), forest structure ((stem density (DEN), mean basal area (MBA) and mean height class (MHC)) and disturbance (DIS) were explored along 2,400 m altitudinal gradient in Hyrcanian relict forest, Central Alborz Mountains. Vegetation changes from lowland forest (LoF) to mid- altitude forest (MiF) and montane forest (MoF) in this area. The altitudinal gradient was divided into twelve 200 m elevational belts. Point centered quarter method (PCQM) with 96 sampling points and 83 vegetation samples by plot method (PM) were used to record field data. Shannon-Wiener index and Pearson coefficient were used for diversity and correlation analysis. The results showed that DEN decreased linearly, MBA and MHC showed relatively hump shaped and DIS showed a reverse hump shaped pattern of change along altitudinal gradient. Woody species diversity decreased non-steadily from LoF to MoF. Transitional vegetations of Carpinus-Fagus and Fagus-Quercus represented higher diversity of woody taxa compared to adjacent homogenous communities. Significant correlation was observed between altitude and all parameters: DEN with MBA, DIS and DIV; MBA with DIS; MHC with DIS along with DIV; and DIS with DIV at the study area scale. Surprisingly,correlation between studied parameters differed within each vegetation type. Altitude probably acts as a proxy for human and environmental driving forces in this area. Stability of warm and wet condition, season length, soil depth along with forest accessibility probably influences the altitudinal pattern of the studied parameters. Disturbance affects forest structure and consequently diversity; especially in lowlands. The obtained results recommend using both forest biodiversity and mensuration data in management process of forest ecosystems.     

Modelling and predicting the spatial dispersion of skin cancer considering environmental and socio-economic factors using a digital earth approach

ABSTRACT

Almost all causative factors of diseases depend on location. The Digital Earth approach is suitable for studying diseases globally. Geospatial information systems integrated with statistical models can be used to model the relationship between a disease and its causative factors. Through modelling, the most important causative factors can be extracted and the epidemiology of the disease can be observed. In this paper, skin cancer (the most common type of cancer) has been modelled based on its causative factors, including climate factors, people's occupations, nutrition habits, socio-economic factors, and usage of chemical fertiliser. To fit the model, a data framework was first designed, and then data were gathered and processed. Finally, the disease was modelled using Generalised Linear Models (GLM), a statistical model based on the location of the factors. The results of this study identify the most important causative factors together with their relative priority. Furthermore, a model was used to predict the change in skin cancer occurrences caused by a change in one of its causative factors. This work illustrates the ability of the model to predict disease occurrence. Thus, by using this Digital Earth approach, skincancer can be studied in all the key countries around the world.     

Estimation and validation of atmospheric water vapor content using a MODIS NIR band ratio technique based on AIRS water vapor products

Atmospheric water vapor validation needs simultaneous, well-defined, and independent information which are not easily available causing limitations in the development of remote sensing water vapor retrieval algorithms. This study is concerned with the retrieval of total atmospheric water vapor content and its validation. A band ratio method has been used to estimate the water vapor content based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Near InfraRed (NIR) data. The method uses MODIS bands 17, 18, and 19 as NIR bands and band 2 to remove the land cover reflectance. Furthermore, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) has been used for both algorithm development and analysis of the results. The method has been modified to take into account the dry condition of the central parts of Iran. Using some various datasets, the method is implemented and evaluated quantitatively. The validation of the water vapor estimates has been undertaken by an analysis of AIRS data. The validation results shows error as low as 9 % for the estimated water vapor using the MODIS NIR band ratio method.     

Revised age of proximal deposits in the Zagros foreland basin and implications for Cenozoic evolution of the High Zagros

The regionally extensive, coarse-grained Bakhtiyari Formation represents the youngest synorogenic fill in the Zagros foreland basin of Iran. The Bakhtiyari is present throughout the Zagros fold-thrust belt and consists of conglomerate with subordinate sandstone and marl. The formation is up to 3000 m thick and was deposited in foredeep and wedge-top depocenters flanked by fold-thrust structures. Although the Bakhtiyari concordantly overlies Miocene deposits in foreland regions, an angular unconformity above tilted Paleozoic to Miocene rocks is expressed in the hinterland (High Zagros).

The Bakhtiyari Formation has been widely considered to be a regional sheet of Pliocene–Pleistocene conglomerate deposited during and after major late Miocene–Pliocene shortening. It is further believed that rapid fold growth and Bakhtiyari deposition commenced simultaneously across the fold-thrust belt, with limited migration from hinterland (NE) to foreland (SW). Thus, the Bakhtiyari is generally interpreted as an unmistakable time indicator for shortening and surface uplift across the Zagros. However, new structural and stratigraphic data show that the most-proximal Bakhtiyari exposures, in the High Zagros south of Shahr-kord, were deposited during the early Miocene and probably Oligocene. In this locality, a coarse-grained Bakhtiyari succession several hundred meters thick contains gray marl, limestone, and sandstone with diagnostic marine pelecypod, gastropod, coral, and coralline algae fossils. Foraminiferal and palynological species indicate deposition during early Miocene time. However, the lower Miocene marine interval lies in angular unconformity above ~ 150 m of Bakhtiyari conglomerate that, in turn, unconformably caps an Oligocene marine sequence. These relationships attest to syndepositional deformation and suggest that the oldest Bakhtiyari conglomerate could be Oligocene in age.

The new age information constrains the timing of initial foreland-basin development and proximal Bakhtiyari deposition in the Zagros hinterland. These findings reveal that structural evolution of the High Zagros was underway by early Miocene and probably Oligocene time, earlier than commonly envisioned. The age of the Bakhtiyari Formation in the High Zagros contrasts significantly with the Pliocene–Quaternary Bakhtiyari deposits near the modern deformation front, suggesting a long-term (> 20 Myr) advance of deformation toward the foreland.     

Probabilistic rainfall thresholds for flood forecasting: evaluating different methodologies for modelling rainfall spatial correlation (or dependence)

Rainfall threshold (RT) method is one of the evolving flood forecasting approaches. When the cumulative rainfall depth for a given initial soil moisture condition intersects the threshold rainfall curve, the peak discharge is expected to be equal or greater than the threshold discharge for flooding at the target site. Besides the total rainfall depth, spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall impacts the flood peak discharge and the time to peak. To revisit a previous study conducted by the authors, in which spatially independent rainfall pattern was assumed, the spatial distribution of rainfall was simulated following a Monte Carlo approach. The structure of the spatial dependence among sub‐watersheds' rainfalls was taken into account under three different scenarios, namely independent, bivariate copula (2copula) and multivariate Gaussian copula (MGC). For each set of generated random dimensionless rainfalls, the probabilistic RT curves were derived for dry moisture condition. Results were evaluated with both historical and simulated events. For the simulated events, threshold curves were assessed by means of categorical statistics, such as hit rate, false rate and critical success index (CSI). Results revealed that the best performance based on the CSI criterion corresponded to 50% curve in 2copula and MGC scenarios as well as 90% curve in the independent scenario. The recognition of 50% curve in 2copula and MGC scenarios is in agreement with our expectations that the mean probable curve should have the best performance. Moreover, the proposed inclusion of spatially dependent rainfall scenario improved the performance of RT curves by about 25% in comparison with the presumed spatially uniform rainfall scenario. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Three‐dimensional nonlinear finite element analysis of pile groups in saturated porous media using a new transmitting boundary

The dynamic behaviour of pile groups subjected to an earthquake base shaking is analysed. An analysis is formulated in the time domain and the effects of material nonlinearity of soil, pile–soil–pile kinematic interaction and the superstructure–foundation inertial interaction on seismic response are investigated. Prediction of response of pile group–soil system during a large earthquake requires consideration of various aspects such as the nonlinear and elasto‐plastic behaviour of soil, pore water pressure generation in soil, radiation of energy away from the pile, etc. A fully explicit dynamic finite element scheme is developed for saturated porous media, based on the extension of the original formulation by Biot having solid displacement (u) and relative fluid displacement (w) as primary variables (u–w formulation). All linear relative fluid acceleration terms are included in this formulation. A new three‐dimensional transmitting boundary that was developed in cartesian co‐ordinate system for dynamic response analysis of fluid‐saturated porous media is implemented to avoid wave reflections towards the structure. In contrast to traditional methods, this boundary is able to absorb surface waves as well as body waves. The pile–soil interaction problem is analysed and it is shown that the results from the fully coupled procedure, using the advanced transmitting boundary, compare reasonably well with centrifuge data. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.