Short-term water quality variable prediction using a hybrid CNN–LSTM deep learning model

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - Water quality monitoring is an important component of water resources management. In order to predict two water quality variables, namely...     

CHDS: conflict handling in direct sampling for stochastic simulation of spatial variables

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - In recent years, multiple-point geostatistical (MPS) approaches have gained significant popularity for modeling subsurface heterogeneity in...     

Estimating the Shapes of Gravity Sources through Optimized Support Vector Classifier (SVC)

In gravity interpretation methods, an initial guess for the approximate shape of the gravity source is necessary. In this paper, the support vector classifier (SVC) is applied for this duty by using gravity data. It is shown that using SVC leads us to estimate the approximate shapes of gravity sources more objectively. The procedure of selecting correct features is called feature selection (FS).In this research, the proper features are selected using inter/intra class distance algorithm and also FS is optimized by increasing and decreasing the number of dimensions of features space. Then, by using the proper features, SVC is used to estimate approximate shapes of sources from the six possible shapes, including: sphere, horizontal cylinder, vertical cylinder, rectangular prism, syncline, and anticline. SVC is trained using 300 synthetic gravity profiles and tested by 60 other synthetic and some real gravity profiles (related to a well and two ore bodies), and shapes of their sources estimated properly.     

The Effect of Hydraulic Gradient and Pattern of Conduit Systems on Tracing Tests: Bench-Scale Modeling

Tracer breakthrough curves provide valuable information about the traced media, especially in inherently heterogeneous karst aquifers. In order to study the effect of variations in hydraulic gradient and conduit systems on breakthrough curves, a bench scale karst model was constructed. The bench scale karst model contains both matrix and a conduit. Eight tracing tests were conducted under a wide range of hydraulic gradients from 1 to greater than 5 for branchwork and network-conduit systems. Sampling points at varying distances from the injection point were utilized. Results demonstrate that mean tracer velocities, tracer mass recovery and linear rising slope of the breakthrough curves were directly controlled by hydraulic gradient. As hydraulic gradient increased, both one half the time for peak concentration and one fifth the time for peak concentration decreased. The results demonstrate the variations in one half the time for peak concentration and one fifth the time for peak concentration of the descending limb for different sampling points under differing hydraulic gradients are mainly controlled by the interactions of advection with dispersion. The results are discussed from three perspectives: different conduit systems, different hydraulic-gradient conditions, and different sampling points. The research confirmed the undeniable role of hydrogeological setting (i.e., hydraulic gradient and conduit system) on the shape of the breakthrough curve. The extracted parameters (mobile-fluid velocity, tracer-mass recovery, linear rising limb, one half the time for peak concentration, and one fifth the time for peak concentration) allow for differentiating hydrogeological settings and enhance interpretations the tracing tests in karst aquifers.     

巴基斯坦地方地震台网的监控能力与可靠性

使用Bungum和Huseby方法对地方地震台网的监控能力和可靠性进行了分析。用震源位置的标准计算机码重新定位地震事件。由频率震级分布导出50％，90％和100％的累积监控能力阀值，对这些阀值23年内记录资料的监控能力水平作了估测。分析表明，在台网内发生的地震事件的台网100％监控能力水平为ML=1.7，从台网内固定实时震源对台网震源解精度作了分析。地震事件在台网内发生时，震中误差低于4km。最后讨论了地方地震台网连续运行期间影响监控能力的因素。     

Spatial correlation for horizontal and vertical components of acceleration from northern Iran seismic events

The evaluation of seismic risk of spatially distributed systems requires the spatial correlation model for ground motion intensity measures. This study investigates the spatial correlation of four earthquakes recorded in northern Iran. The intra-event spatial correlation for both horizontal and vertical components of spectral acceleration at eight periods in the range of 0.0–3.0 s is estimated using geostatistical tools. An exponential form is chosen to fit experimental semivariograms, and the correlation ranges of spectral accelerations as a function of period are derived. The results show similar trend of correlation ranges for both components. It should be mentioned that the ranges for the vertical component, in general, are higher than those observed for the horizontal one. For both components, the correlation ranges as a function of period are divided into three segments. The first and the third one are increasing while the second one is decreasing with increasing period.     

Impacts of Methane on Carbon Dioxide Storage in Brine Formations

In the context of geological carbon sequestration (GCS), carbon dioxide (CO₂) is often injected into deep formations saturated with a brine that may contain dissolved light hydrocarbons, such as methane (CH₄). In this multicomponent multiphase displacement process, CO₂ competes with CH₄ in terms of dissolution, and CH₄ tends to exsolve from the aqueous into a gaseous phase. Because CH₄ has a lower viscosity than injected CO₂, CH₄ is swept up into a ‘bank’ of CH₄‐rich gas ahead of the CO₂ displacement front. On the one hand, this may provide a useful tracer signal of an approaching CO₂ front. On the other hand, the emergence of gaseous CH₄ is undesirable because it poses a leakage risk of a far more potent greenhouse gas than CO₂ if the cap rock is compromised. Open fractures or faults and wells could result in CH₄ contamination of overlying groundwater aquifers as well as surface emissions. We investigate this process through detailed numerical simulations for a large‐scale GCS pilot project (near Cranfield, Mississippi) for which a rich set of field data is available. An accurate cubic‐plus‐association equation‐of‐state is used to describe the non‐linear phase behavior of multiphase brine‐CH₄‐CO₂ mixtures, and breakthrough curves in two observation wells are used to constrain transport processes. Both field data and simulations indeed show the development of an extensive plume of CH₄‐rich (up to 90 mol%) gas as a consequence of CO₂ injection, with important implications for the risk assessment of future GCS projects.     

Seismic performance and damage incurred by monolithic concrete self-centering rocking walls under the effect of axial stress ratio

Self-centering rocking walls offer the possibility of minimizing repair costs and downtimes, and also nullify the residual drift after seismic events, thanks to their self-centering properties. In this paper, the effect of axial stress ratio on the behavior of monolithic self-centering rocking walls is investigated by utilizing a developed finite element model. To verify the validity of the finite element model, results and observed damage in the model are compared with those of a full-scale wall test. The axial stress ratio is varied from 0.024 to 0.30 while keeping the other structural parameters constant. For qualitative damage evaluation, the observed damage in the model compared with expected damage states of desired performance levels. In order to evaluate the incurred damage quantitatively, the amount of crushing and damage in the wall is calculated by utilizing several ratios (crushing ratio and damage ratio). Furthermore, seismic response factors (i.e., μ, R and C_d) are calculated for different axial stress ratio values. The obtained results showed that, in order to satisfy the requirements of desired performance levels, the maximum axial stress ratio should be approximately within the range of 0.10–0.15. In addition, the maximum overall damage ratio and crushing ratio are suggested to be less than 5%. For axial stress ratio higher than 0.15, the flag-shaped pattern of hysteresis curves completely disappeared and the variation of displacement ductility is less sensitive to axial stress ratio. Considering the maximum axial stress ratio limited to 0.150, values of 4 and 3.5 are conservatively proposed as a period-independent response modification factor and displacement modification factor of the investigated structural wall, respectively.     

Wave data assimilation using a hybrid approach in the Persian Gulf

The main goal of this study is to develop an efficient approach for the assimilation of the hindcasted wave parameters in the Persian Gulf. Hence, the third generation SWAN model was employed for wave modeling forced by the 6-h ECMWF wind data with a resolution of 0.5°. In situ wave measurements at two stations were utilized to evaluate the assimilation approaches. It was found that since the model errors are not the same for wave height and period, adaptation of model parameter does not result in simultaneous and comprehensive improvement of them. Therefore, an approach based on the error prediction and updating of output variables was employed to modify wave height and period. In this approach, artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used to estimate the deviations between the simulated and measured wave parameters. The results showed that updating of output variables leads to significant improvement in a wide range of the predicted wave characteristics. It was revealed that the best input parameters for error prediction networks are mean wind speed, mean wind direction, wind duration, and the wave parameters. In addition, combination of the ANN estimated error with numerically modeled wave parameters leads to further improvement in the predicted wave parameters in contrast to direct estimation of the parameters by ANN.