Probabilistic modeling of seismically triggered landslides using Monte Carlo simulations

The 2004 Chuetsu earthquakes of Niigata (Japan) triggered numerous landslides, and the most widespread types of landslides were highly disrupted, relatively shallow slides and soil (debris) flows. This paper presented a method to evaluate slope instability using Newmark displacement on a pixel-by-pixel basis in a given area. The proposed method was able to integrate Newmark displacement modeling and Monte Carlo simulations within geographical information systems. In the modeling, an empirical attenuation relationship was utilized to calculate Arias intensity over this study area, and the variability of geotechnical parameters was taken into account to calculate coseismic landslide displacement. Before deriving the displacement from related inputs, the Monte Carlo simulations ran 1,500 times and generated 1,500 displacement values for each grid cell, and then means and standard deviations of displacement were calculated and probabilistic distributions can be obtained. Finally, given 10 cm as a threshold value of displacement, estimated probabilities of displacement exceeding 10 cm were shown as a map of seismic landslide hazards. The resulting hazard map was classified into four categories from very low to high level.     

Non-Linear Theory and Power-Law Models for Information Integration and Mineral Resources Quantitative Assessments

Singular physical or chemical processes may result in anomalous amounts of energy release or mass accumulation that, generally, are confined to narrow intervals in space or time. Singularity is a property of different types of non-linear natural processes including cloud formation, rainfall, hurricanes, flooding, landslides, earthquakes, wildfires, and mineralization. The end products of these non-linear processes can be modeled as fractals or multifractals. Hydrothermal processes in the Earth’s crust can result in ore deposits characterized by high concentrations of metals with fractal or multifractal properties. Here we show that the non-linear properties of the end products of singular mineralization processes can be applied for prediction of undiscovered mineral deposits and for quantitative mineral resource assessment, whether for mineral exploration or for regional, national and global planning for mineral resource utilization. In addition to the general theory and framework for the non-linear mineral resources assessment, this paper focuses on several power-law models proposed for characterizing non-linear properties of mineralization and for geoinformation extraction and integration. The theories, methods, and computer system discussed in this paper were validated using a case study dealing with hydrothermal Au mineral potential in southern Nova Scotia, Canada.     

Inversely-Mapped Analytical Solutions for Flow Patterns around and within Inclined Elliptic Inclusions in Fluid-Saturated Rocks

In this paper, an inverse mapping is used to transform the previously-derived analytical solutions from a local elliptical coordinate system into a conventional Cartesian coordinate system. This enables a complete set of exact analytical solutions to be derived rigorously for the pore-fluid velocity, stream function, and excess pore-fluid pressure around and within buried inclined elliptic inclusions in pore-fluid-saturated porous rocks. To maximize the application range of the derived analytical solutions, the focal distance of an ellipse is used to represent the size of the ellipse, while the length ratio of the long axis to the short one is used to represent the geometrical shape of the ellipse. Since the present analytical solutions are expressed in a conventional Cartesian coordinate system, it is convenient to investigate, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the distribution patterns of the pore-fluid flow and excess pressure around and within many different families of buried inclined elliptic inclusions. The major advantage in using the present analytical solution is that they can be conveniently computed in a global Cartesian coordinate system, which is widely used in many scientific and engineering computations. As an application example, the present analytical solutions have been used to investigate how the dip angle of an inclined elliptic inclusion affects the distribution patterns of the pore-fluid flow and excess pore-fluid pressure when the permeability ratio of the elliptic inclusion is of finite but nonzero values.     

Crustal xenoliths from Calbuco Volcano,Andean Southern Volcanic Zone: implications for crustal composition and magma-crust interaction

Crustal xenoliths in the 1961 andesite flow of Calbuco Volcano, in the southern Southern Volcanic Zone (SSVZ) of the Andes, consist predominantly of pyroxene granulites and hornblende gabbronorites. The granulites contain plagioclase+pyroxene+magnetite±amphibole, and have pronounced granoblastic textures. Small amounts of relict amphibole surrounded by pyroxene-plagioclase-magnetite-glass symplectites are found in some specimens. These and similar textures in the gabbronorites are interpreted as evidence of dehydration melting. Mineral and bulk rock geochemical data indicate that the granulites are derived from an incompatible trace element depleted basaltic protolith that underwent two stages of metamorphism: a moderate pressure, high temperature stage accompanied by melting and melt extraction from some samples, followed by thermal metamorphism after entrainment in the Calbuco andesite lavas. High _Nd ^T values (+4.0 to +8.6), Nd-isotope model ages of 1.7–2.0 Ga, and trace element characteristics like chondrite normalized La/Yb< and La/Nb1 indicate that the protoliths were oceanic basalts. Similar oceanic metabasalts of greenschist to amphibolite facies are found in the Paleozoic metamorphic belt that underlies the Chilean coastal ranges. Mineral and bulk rock compositions of the gabbronorite xenoliths indicate that they are cognate, crystallizing from the basaltic andesite magma at Calbuco. Crystallization pressures for the gabbros based on total Al contents in amphibole are 6–8 kbar. These pressures point to middle to lower crustal storage of the Calbuco magma. Neither granulite nor gabbro xenoliths have the appropriate geochemical characteristics to be contaminants of Calbuco andesites, although an ancient sedimentary contaminant is indicated by the lava compositions. The presence of oceanic metabasaltic xenoliths, together with the sedimentary isotopic imprint, suggests that the lower crust beneath the volcano is analogous to the coastal metamorphic belt, which is an accretionary complex of intercalated basalts and sediments that formed along the Paleozoic Gondwanan margin. If this is the case, the geochemical composition of the lower and middle crust beneath the SSVZ is significantly different from that of most recent SSVZ volcanic rocks.     

Composition-related microstructures in zinc-bearing carbonate assemblages from Broken Hill,New South Wales

Summary Analytical transmission electron microscopy has been used to investigate two zincian dolomites occurring as overgrowths on calcite from the oxidized zone of the ore bodies at Broken Hill, New South Wales. Particular attention has been focussed on the nature of the microstructures, and any correlations between microstructure and local composition, especially zinc content. The possible occurrence of tiny amounts of the zinc dolomite, minrecordite, has also been explored.The most notable features in the zincian dolomite are fine-scale distributions of ribbonlike calcitic second phase, growth bands, and modulated microstructures (strong modulations in diffraction contrast). Their occurrence is correlated with calcium in excess of stoichiometric requirements, but is not directly influenced by zinc content. The associated calcites are low in zinc, but they also exhibit carbonate second phase, which is thought to be dolomitic although giving no detectable order (b-type) reflections. Long-exposure electron diffraction patterns, however, revealed the presence of diffuse c-type superstructure reflections, which are thought to arise from smaller volumes in which Ca and Mg cations are ordered, for which a model is proposed.

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Zusammensetzungsabhängige Mikrogefüge in Zn-haltigen Karbonat-Vergesellschaftungen von Broken Hill, New South Wales

Zusammenfassung Analytische Transmissionselektronenmikroskopie wurde benutzt um zwei Zn-haltige Dolomite zu untersuchen, die als Überzüge von Calcit aus der Oxidationszone der Erzkörper von Broken Hill, New South Wales, auftraten. Besondere Aufmerksamkeit wurde der Art der Mikrogefüge und möglichen Korrelationen zwischen Mikrogefüge und der lokalen Zusammensetzung, vor allem dem Zn-Gehalt, gewidmet. Dem möglichen Auftreten von geringen Mengen des Zn-Dolomit, Minrecordit, wurde ebenfalls nachgegangen.Die bemerkenswertesten Erscheinungen im Zn-haltigen Dolomit sind feine bandartige Verteilung einer calcitischen Phase, Wachstumsbänder und modulierte Strukturen (starke Modulationen im Beugungskontrast sichtbar). Ihr Auftreten ist mit über das stöchiometrische Verhältnis hinaus vorhandenem Ca korreliert; es ist aber vom Zn-Gehalt nicht direkt beeinflußt. Die mitvergesellschafteten Calcite haben einen niedrigen Zn-Gehalt, zeigen aber eine weitere Karbonatphase. Diese wird für dolomitsch gehalten, obwohl keine entsprechenden Ordnungsreflexe (b-Reflexè) nachweisbar waren. Sehr lange belichtete Elektronenbeugungs-Aufnahmen zeigen jedoch diffuse c-Typ-Über-struktur-Reflexe. Diese sind wahrscheinlich auf kleine Bereiche beschränkt, in dener die Ca und Mg Kationen geordnet sind, wofür ein Modell vorgeschlagen wird.

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With 10 Figures     

斜交型不稳定谱点分布侧半圆定理及其增长率上界的估计

本对斜交型扰动不稳定谱点的分布做了理论分析，得到了该谱点分布的半圆定理一该谱点分布在复一面上以原点为圆心以R0为半径的上半平面上，同时还对该不稳定增长率的上界作了估计。发现水平永度越小，模式顶越高则该估计值越大；垂直风切变的增大和纬度的增高对该增长率的增大有正贡献；当层结稳定度减小时，最大增长率随相对最大增长率得增大而减小。     

一类广义Hamilton系统的辛格式

通过引人泊松括号，分析了无限维Hamilton的性质，并将其推广到广义Hamilton系统，且从理论和实用角度讨论了这类广义Hamilton系统的辛格式构造问题，从而为辛几何算法在一般的时间发展方程的数值求解提供新的具体途径。     

Intercomparison of IRS-P4-MSMR derived geophysical products with DMSP-SSM/I and TRMM-TMI finished products

In this paper, MSMR geophysical products like Integrated Water Vapour (IWV), Ocean Surface Wind Speed (OWS) and Cloud Liquid Water (CLW) in different grids of 50, 75 and 150 kms are compared with similar products available from other satellites like DMSP-SSM/I and TRMMTMI. MSMR derived IWV, OWS and CLW compare well with SSM/I and TMI finished products. Comparison of MSMR derived CLW with that derived from TMI and SSM/I is relatively in less agreement. This is possibly due to the use of 37 GHz in SSM/I and TMI that is highly sensitive to CLW, while 37 GHz channels are not available on MSMR. Monthly comparison of MSMR geophysical products with those from TMI is all carried out for climatological purpose. The monthly comparisons were much better compared to instantaneous comparisons. In this paper, details of the data analysis and comparison results are presented. The usefulness of the MSMR vis-à-vis other sensors is also discussed.     

A decade of change in the Skidaway River estuary I. Hydrography and nutrients

The Skidaway River estuary is a tidally-dominated subtropical estuary in the southeastern USA surrounded by extensiveSpartina salt marshes. Weekly smapling at high and low tide began in 1986 for hydrography, nutrients, chlorophylla, particulate matter, and microbial and plankton biomass and composition; hydrographic and nutrient data during 1986–1996 are reported here. Salinity varied inversely with river discharge and exhibited variability at all time scales but with no long-term trend. Water temperature typically ranged over 25°C and was without apparent long-term frend. Seasonal cycles in concentrations of NO₃, NH₄, PO₄, Si(OH)₄, and DON were observed, with annual maxima generally occurring in late summer. Superimposed on seasonal cycles, all five nutrients exhibited steady increases in minimum, mean, and maximum concentrations; mean concentrations increased c. 50–150% during the decade. Nutrient concentrations were highly correlated with water temperature over the ten-year period, but weakly related to salinity and discharge. Nutrients were strongly correlated with one another, and the relative ratios among inorganic nutrients showed little long-term trend. Correlations among temperature and nutrient concentrations exhibited considerable inter-annual variability. Major spikes in organic and inorganic nutrient concentrations coincided with significant rainfall events; concentrations increased hyperbolically with rainfall. Although pristine compared to more heavily impacted waterways primarily outside the region, residential development and population density have been increasing rapidly during the past 15–20 years. Land use is apparently altering nutrient loading over the long-term (months-years), and superimposed on this are stochastic meteorological events that accelerate these changes over the short term (days-weeks).