The climatic impacts of land surface change and carbon management, and the implications for climate-change mitigation policy

Strategies to mitigate anthropogenic climate change recognize that carbon sequestration in the terrestrial biosphere can reduce the build-up of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere. However, climate mitigation policies do not generally incorporate the effects of these changes in the land surface on the surface albedo, the fluxes of sensible and latent heat to the atmosphere, and the distribution of energy within the climate system. Changes in these components of the surface energy budget can affect the local, regional, and global climate. Given the goal of mitigating climate change, it is important to consider all of the effects of changes in terrestrial vegetation and to work toward a better understanding of the full climate system. Acknowledging the importance of land surface change as a component of climate change makes it more challenging to create a system of credits and debits wherein emission or sequestration of carbon in the biosphere is equated with emission of carbon from fossil fuels. Recognition of the complexity of human-caused changes in climate does not, however, weaken the importance of actions that would seek to minimize our disturbance of the Earth’s environmental system and that would reduce societal and ecological vulnerability to environmental change and variability.     

Non-linear climate feedback analysis in an atmospheric general circulation model

 A method is described for evaluating the ‘partial derivatives’ of globally averaged top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation changes with respect to basic climate model physical parameters. This method is used to analyse feedbacks in the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre general circulation model. The parameters considered are surface temperature, water vapour, lapse rate and cloud cover. The climate forcing which produces the changes is a globally uniform sea surface temperature (SST) perturbation. The first and second order differentials of model parameters with respect to the forcing (i.e. SST changes) are estimated from quadratic least square fitting. Except for total cloud cover, variables are found to be strong functions of global SST. Strongly non-linear variations of lapse rate and high cloud amount and height appear to relate to the non-linear response in penetrative convection. Globally averaged TOA radiation differentials with respect to model parameters are also evaluated. With the exception of total cloud contributions, a high correlation is generally found to exist, on the global mean level, between TOA radiation and the respective parameter perturbations. The largest non-linear terms contributing to radiative changes are those due to lapse rate and high cloud. The contributions of linear and non-linear terms to the overall radiative response from a 4 K SST perturbation are assessed. Significant non-linear responses are found to be associated with lapse rate, water vapour and cloud changes. Although the exact magnitude of these responses is likely to be a function of the particular model as well as the imposed SST perturbation pattern, the present experiments flag these as processes which cannot properly be understood from linear theory in the evaluation of climate change sensitivity. Received: 16 January 1997/Accepted: 9 May 1997     

Column Amounts of ClONO2, HCl, HNO3, and HF from Ground-Based FTIR Measurements Made Near Kiruna, Sweden, in Late Winter 1994

During SESAME phase I ground-based FTIR measurements were performed atEsrange near Kiruna, Sweden, from 28 January to 26 March 1994. Zenith columnamounts of ClONO₂, HCl, HF, HNO₃,O₃, N₂O, CH₄, and CFC-12 werederived from solar absorption spectra. Time series of ClONO₂and HCl indicate a chlorine activation at the end of January and around 1March. On 1 March a very low amount of HCl of 2.09times; 10¹⁵molec. cm^-2 was detected, probably caused by a second chlorineactivation phase starting from an already decreased amount of HCl. The ratioof column amounts of HCl to ClONO₂ decreased inside the vortexfrom about 1 in January to 0.4 in late March compared to values of about 2outside the vortex. Although the Arctic stratosphere was rather warm in winter1993/94 and PSCs occurred seldom, chlorine partitioning into its reservoirspecies HCl and ClONO₂ changed during that winter andClONO₂ is the major chlorine reservoir at the end of thewinter as in cold winters like 1991/92 and 1994/95.     

Reactive Nitrogen Compounds at Spitsbergen in the Norwegian Arctic

Simultaneousindependent measurements of NO_y and NO_x(NO_x= NO + NO₂) by high-sensitivitychemiluminescence systems and of PAN (peroxyacetylnitrate) and PPN (peroxypropionyl nitrate) by GC-ECDwere made at Spitsbergen in the Norwegian Arcticduring the first half year of 1994. The average mixingratio of the sum of PAN and PPN (denoted PANs)increased from around 150 pptv in early winter to amaximum of around 500 pptv in late March, whereasepisodic peak values reached 800 pptv. This occurredsimultaneously with a maximum in ozone which increasedto 45–50 ppbv in March–April. The average NO_xmixing ratio was 27 pptv and did not show any cyclethrough the period. The NO_y mixing ratio showeda maximum in late March, while the difference betweenNO_y and PAN decreased during spring. This is anindication of the dominance of PAN in the NO_ybudget in the Arctic, but possible changes in theefficiency of the NO_y converter could alsocontribute to this. Although most PAN in theArctic is believed to be due to long range transport,the observations indicate local loss and formationrates of up to 1–2 pptv h^-1 in April–May.Measurements of carbonyl compounds suggest thatacetaldehyde was the dominant, local precursor ofPAN.Now at 1.     

Non-stationary Markov chains for modelling daily sunshine at São Paulo, Brazil

Summary Non-stationary, four-state Markov chains were used to model the sunshine daily ratios at São Paulo, Brazil. Fourier series were used to account for the periodic seasonal variations in the transition probabilities. All the regressions and tests, based on Generalized Linear Models, were made through the software GLIM. Significant seasonal variations were detected in the conditional probabilities, especially for the extreme categories of overcast and clear days. The fitted model provided a concise summary of the daily data, useful for short-range (1 day) sunshine predictions and simulations.With 6 Figures     

SENSITIVITY OF MALARIA, SCHISTOSOMIASIS AND DENGUE TO GLOBAL WARMING

Global assessment of the potential impacts of anthropogenically-induced climate change on vector-borne diseases suggests an increase in extent of the geographical areas susceptible to transmission of malarial Plasmodium parasites, dengue Flavivirus and Schistosoma worms. The transmission potential of the three associated vector-borne diseases studied is highly sensitive to climate changes on the periphery of the currently endemic areas and at higher altitudes within such areas. Our findings vis-à-vis the present endemic areas indicate that the increase in the epidemic potential of malaria and dengue transmission may be estimated at 12–27% and 31–47%, respectively, while in contrast, schistosomiasis transmission potential may be expected to exhibit a 11–17% decrease.     

Climatic and environmental reconstructions based on fossil assemblages from middle devensian (Weichselian) deposits of the river Thames at south kensington, central London, UK

Fossiliferous silts within the Late Pleistocene Kempton Park Gravel, of the River Thames Valley, were exposed in 1980 during foundation works for the Ismaili Centre in South Kensington, London. The results of a multidisciplinary study of the geomorphology, sediments, fossil plants, vertebrates, molluscs, ostracods and insects are reported. The silts were deposited under two distinct climatic regimes; a lower unit accumulated when the climate was arctic and an upper when the temperatures were at least as warm as those of the present day. Both these units occupy the same channel system and are separated from one another by less than a metre of sediment, implying that the climatic change was probably sudden and intense. The strongest evidence for this climatic difference comes from a study of the Coleoptera, which show an almost complete replacement of the arctic element in the fauna by a suite of temperate species. Palaeotemperature reconstructions using the Mutual Climatic Range method, based on the coleopteran assemblages from the lower unit, suggest that the mean temperature of the warmest month was 9±2 °C and that of the coldest month −22±10 °C. For the upper unit the mean temperature of the warmest month had risen to about 17 °C and that of the coldest month to about −4 °C. The episode represented by the lower unit, with its arctic climate, had not previously been recognized in the Thames Valley. The fauna from the upper, temperate, unit is very similar to that from other sites in the Kempton Park Gravel, such as that from Isleworth, 10 km upriver, which, like the upper unit at the Ismaili Centre, was characterized by the virtual absence of trees. It would appear that in such cases this treelessness does not indicate cold conditions, equivalent to those of the modern tundra, but may instead result from a combination of ecological and temporal factors. The value of multidisciplinary studies in reaching such conclusions is emphasized.The temperate episode described here is correlated with the thermal maximum at the early part of the Upton Warren Interstadial Complex. An earlier suggestion, based on amino acid epimerization ratios, that the Upton Warren Interstadial correlates with Oxygen Isotope Sub-stage 5a is not supported by the data, which show no evidence of the forested environments that characterized this period in both Britain and the adjacent Continent. It is thought that the temperate deposits at the Ismaili Centre belong to the Middle (Pleniglacial), rather than the Early, Devensian (Weichselian) and are equivalent to Oxygen Isotope Stage 3.     

The mutual climatic range method of palaeoclimate reconstruction based on insect fossils: New applications and interhemispheric comparisons

The Mutual Climatic Range (MCR) method of palaeoclimate reconstruction has been employed in Europe for the last decade. A quantitative, calibrated method, MCR has many advantages over qualitative methods. More recent applications deal with eastern and central North America, and the method is also being developed for desert and arctic faunas. The climate envelopes for North American beetles have been compiled using a 25-km gridded North American climate database that pairs climate parameters with modern collection sites. Modern tests of the reliability of the MCR method for North American species yielded similar results to prior European tests. Linear regressions of predicted on observed values yielded equations used to calibrate the MCR estimates. Work is under way to develop MCR estimates of mean annual precipitation for fossil assemblages from the desert southwest, where moisture conditions may play a more important role in determining beetle species' ranges.An examination of British and North American mean July temperature reconstructions during the Late Wisconsinan glacial interval compares and contrasts three sets of records. The North American records show no indication of the Younger Dryas cooling that is clearly marked in records from northwest Europe. The MCR method adds vigour to our reconstructions, and allows us to compare between regions and with other palaeoenvironmental methods.     

Carboniferous diamictite dykes in the Falkland Islands

Sedimentary dykes hosted in ? Ordovician-Devonian strata on the Falkland Islands contain diamictite. The dykes, which are discordant to the host rocks, are sub-vertical, parallel-sided sheets formed by downward injection of a semi-fluidized sediment. On West Falkland palynomorphs present in 2 of the 11 dykes located demonstrate a Late Visean-Early Namurian age. This is older than the main Lafonian Diamictite Formation (Permian) and indicates that the dykes are a rare preservation of sediments formed during the main ice coverage of the Gondwana glaciation. Vitrinite reflectance from organic matter in the dykes indicates a shallow burial history (< 2–3 km) for the southwest Falkland Islands implying deposition of an incomplete or condensed sequence during Late Palaeozoic times, although the stratigraphical relationship of the dykes indicates that this may be extended back into the Mid Palaeozoic. The two diamictite dykes located on East Falkland are shown to be younger; probably Permian in age.