Linear genetic programming for prediction of circular pile scour

Genetic programming (GP) has nowadays attracted the attention of researchers in the prediction of hydraulic data. This study presents linear genetic programming (LGP), which is an extension to GP, as an alternative tool in the prediction of scour depth around a circular pile due to waves in medium dense silt and sand bed. Field measurements were used to develop LGP models. The proposed LGP models were compared with adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model results. The predictions of LGP models were observed to be in good agreement with measured data, and quite better than ANFIS and regression-based equation of scour depth at circular piles. The results were tabulated in terms of statistical error measures and illustrated via scatter plots.     

Sedimentology, stratigraphic occurrence and origin of linked debrites in the West Crocker Formation (Oligo-Miocene), Sabah, NW Borneo

The West Crocker Formation (Oligocene–Early Miocene), NW Borneo, consists of a large (>20 000 km²) submarine fan deposited as part of an accretionary complex. A range of gravity-flow deposits are observed, the most significant of which are mud-poor, massive sandstones interpreted as turbidites and clast-rich, muddy sandstones and sandy mudstones interpreted as debrites. An upward transition from turbidite to debrite is commonly observed, with the contact being either gradational and planar, or sharp and highly erosive. Based on their repeated vertical relationship and the nature of the contact between them, these intervals are interpreted as being deposited from one flow event which consisted of two distinct flow phases: fully turbulent turbidity current and weakly turbulent to laminar debris flow. The associated bed is called a co-genetic turbidite–debrite, with the upper debrite interval termed a linked debrite. Linked debrites are best developed in the non-channellised parts of the fan system, and are absent to poorly-developed in the proximal channel-levee and distal basin floor environments. Due to outcrop limitations, the genesis of linked debrites within the West Crocker Formation is unclear. Based on clast size and type, it seems likely that a weakly turbulent to laminar debris-flow flow phase was present when the flow event entered the basin. A change in flow behaviour may have led to deposition of a sand-rich unit with ‘turbidite’ characteristics, which was subsequently overlain by a mud-rich unit with ‘debrite’ characteristics. Flow transformation may have been enhanced by the disintegration and incorporation into the flow of muddy clasts derived from the upstream channel floor, channel mouth or from channel-levee collapse. Lack of preservation of this debrite in proximal areas may indicate either bypass of this flow phase or that the available outcrops fail to capture the debris flow entry point. Establishing robust sedimentological criteria from a variety of datasets may lead to the increasing recognition of co-genetic turbidite-debrite beds, and an increased appreciation of the importance of bipartite flows in the transport and deposition of sediments in deepwater environments.     

Building more realistic reservoir optimization models using data mining - A case study of Shelbyville Reservoir

In this paper, we promote a novel approach to develop reservoir operation routines by learning from historical hydrologic information and reservoir operations. The proposed framework involves a knowledge discovery step to learn the real drivers of reservoir decision making and to subsequently build a more realistic (enhanced) model formulation using stochastic dynamic programming (SDP). The enhanced SDP model is compared to two classic SDP formulations using Lake Shelbyville, a reservoir on the Kaskaskia River in Illinois, as a case study. From a data mining procedure with monthly data, the past month’s inflow (Q_t−1), current month’s inflow (Q_t), past month’s release (R_t−1), and past month’s Palmer drought severity index (PDSI_t−1) are identified as important state variables in the enhanced SDP model for Shelbyville Reservoir. When compared to a weekly enhanced SDP model of the same case study, a different set of state variables and constraints are extracted. Thus different time scales for the model require different information. We demonstrate that adding additional state variables improves the solution by shifting the Pareto front as expected while using new constraints and the correct objective function can significantly reduce the difference between derived policies and historical practices. The study indicates that the monthly enhanced SDP model resembles historical records more closely and yet provides lower expected average annual costs than either of the two classic formulations (25.4% and 4.5% reductions, respectively). The weekly enhanced SDP model is compared to the monthly enhanced SDP, and it shows that acquiring the correct temporal scale is crucial to model reservoir operation for particular objectives.     

A combined methodology of multiplet and composite focal mechanism techniques for identifying seismologically active zones in Syria

This contribution is an attempt to enlarge the current knowledge about the focal mechanisms as well as the seismotectonic settings in Syria. The seismologically active zones have been identified by applying an appropriate methodology to the events recorded during the period 1995–2003 by the Syrian National Seismological Network (SNSN). The recorded events in Syria were classified as weak during the research period. It was extremely important to propose and apply an appropriate methodology to identify the focal mechanisms generating this seismic activity. The proposed methodology consists of applying a combination of two techniques: the multiplet and the composite focal mechanisms. The combination of many events in one composite focal mechanism was realized by a multiplet technique using the spectral coherence of the events as a measure of similarity. The application of the proposed methodology allows a data set of composite fault plane solutions to be obtained. Most of the composite fault plane solutions had strike-slip mechanisms which are in agreement with the configuration of seismogenic belts in Syria.     

Assessment of seawater intrusion to the agricultural sustainability at the coastal area of Carey Island, Selangor, Malaysia

Groundwater suitability for agriculture in an island with limited recharge area may easily be influenced by seawater intrusion. The aim of this study was to investigate seawater intrusion to the suitability of the groundwater for oil palm cultivation at the ex-promontory land of Carey Island in Malaysia. This is the first study that used the integrated method of geo-electrical resistivity and hydro-geochemical methods to investigate seawater intrusion to the suitability of groundwater for oil palm cultivation at two different land cover condition. The relationship between earth resistivity, total dissolved solids and earth conductivity was derived with crop suitability classification according to salinity, used to identify water types and also oil palm tolerance to salinity. Results from the contour conductivity maps show that area facing severe coastal erosion and area still intact with mangrove forest exhibits unsuitable groundwater condition for oil palm at the unconfined aquifer thickness of 15 and 31 m, respectively. Based on local sea-level rise prediction and Ghyben–Herzberg assumption (sharp interface), the condition in the study area, especially in severe erosion area, by the twenty-first century will no longer be suitable for oil palm plantation. The application of geo-electrical method combined with geochemical data, aided with the information on environmental history and oil palm physiography, has demonstrated that the integration of techniques is an effective tool in defining the status of agricultural suitability affected by salinity at the coastal aquifer area.     

Strong ground motion simulation during the November 1759 Earthquake along Serghaya Fault in the metropolitan of Damascus, Syria

The seismic hazard potential for metropolitan of Damascus, Syria is mainly controlled by earthquakes along Serghaya Fault which is a branch of Dead Sea Fault System. In this study, strong ground motion due to the November 1759 Earthquake along the fault of Serghaya was estimated with a numerical simulation technique. In the simulation, the Kostrov-like slip-velocity function was used as an input to the discrete wave number method to simulate the strong ground motions in a broadband frequency range. In order to model the incoherent rupture propagation which can excite large high-frequency waves, random numbers are added to arrival time of circular rupture front. MMI intensities calculated from the synthetic ground motions are compared with the observed values by Ambraseys and Barazangi (J Geophys Res 94:4007-4013, 1989). The calculated intensities are in good agreement with the observed ones at the most sites that validate appropriateness of the proposed source model. The PGA and PGV in the eastern region of Damascus city are higher than those in the western region due to the effects of local site amplification. The simulated high-frequency (1.0–6.0 Hz) ground motions for the sites in the Damascus city are higher than the design requirements defined by the Syrian building code. Furthermore, the simulated high-frequency ground motions for sites in the focal region are bigger than the design requirements in the case of the near-fault factors and are not considered. That demonstrates the appropriateness of considering the near-fault factors for a site near the focal region as introduced by the new building code.     

A new tool for in situ monitoring of Fe-mobilization in soils

The aim of this study was to design and test a new tool for (i) the quantitative in situ monitoring of Fe(III) reduction in soils and (ii) the tracking of the potential mineralogical changes of Fe-oxides. The tool consists of small (2 × 2 × 0.2 cm) striated polymer plates coated with synthetic pure ferrihydrite or As-doped ferrihydrite (Fh–As). These slides were then inserted within two different horizons (organo-mineral and albic) located in a wetland soil with alternating redox conditions. Dissolution was quantified by X-ray fluorescence (XRF) analyses of total metal contents before and after insertion into the soil. The crystallographic evolution of Fe-oxides was characterized by scanning electron microscope equipped with an energy-dispersive spectrometer (SEM–EDS). Over the months, the ferrihydrite progressively disappeared, at rates comparable to those previously measured in laboratory studies, i.e. in the 1–10 × 10⁻¹² mol Fe m⁻² s⁻¹ range. SEM observations indicate that the supports were highly colonized by bacteria and biofilms in the organo-mineral horizon, suggesting a biological-mediated process, while the albic horizon appeared to be characterized by a mostly chemical-mediated process. In the albic horizon, Fe-sulphide and other micro-precipitates were formed after 7 months of incubation in balance with a quasi dissolution of initial Fe-oxides.     

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment along Oman coast from submarine earthquakes in the Makran subduction zone

The Sultanate of Oman is among the Indian Ocean countries that were subjected to at least two confirmed tsunamis during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries: the 1945 tsunami due to an earthquake in the Makran subduction zone in the Sea of Oman (near-regional field tsunami) and the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, caused by an earthquake from the Andaman Sumatra subduction zone (far - field tsunami). In this paper, we present a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the entire coast of Oman from tectonic sources generated along the Makran subduction zone. The tsunami hazard is assessed taking into account the contribution of small- and large-event magnitudes. Results of the earthquake recurrence rate studies and the tsunami numerical modeling for different magnitudes were used through a logic-tree to estimate the tsunami hazard probabilities. We derive probability hazard exceedance maps for the Omani coast considering the exposure times of 100, 250, 500, and 1000 years. The hazard maps consist of computing the likelihood that tsunami waves exceed a specific amplitude. We find that the probability that a maximum wave amplitude exceeds 1 m somewhere along the coast of Oman reaches, respectively, 0.7 and 0.85 for 100 and 250 exposure times, and it is up to 1 for 500 and 1000 years of exposure times. These probability values decrease significantly toward the southern coast of Oman where the tsunami impact, from the earthquakes generated at Makran subduction zone, is low.