The role of hydrologic information in reservoir operation – Learning from historical releases

Closing the gap between theoretical reservoir operation and the real-world implementation remains a challenge in contemporary reservoir operations. Past research has focused on optimization algorithms and establishing optimal policies for reservoir operations. In this study, we attempt to understand operators’ release decisions by investigating historical release data from 79 reservoirs in California and the Great Plains, using a data-mining approach. The 79 reservoirs are classified by hydrological regions, intra-annual seasons, average annual precipitation (climate), ratio of maximum reservoir capacity to average annual inflow (size ratio), hydrologic uncertainty associated with inflows, and reservoirs’ main usage. We use information theory – specifically, mutual information – to measure the quality of inference between a set of classic indicators and observed releases at the monthly and weekly timescales. Several general trends are found to explain which sources of hydrologic information dictate reservoir release decisions under different conditions. Current inflow is the most important indicator during wet seasons, while previous releases are more relevant during dry seasons and in weekly data (as compared with monthly data). Inflow forecasting is the least important indicator in release decision making, but its importance increases linearly with hydrologic uncertainty and decreases logarithmically with reservoir size. No single hydrologic indicator is dominant across all reservoirs in either of the two regions.     

Authigenic dolomite cementation in the Upper Cretaceous Phosphate Formation, Western Desert, Egypt

The Upper Cretaceous Phosphate Formation in the Western Desert of Egypt displays a characteristic facies association that includes marine phosphorites interbedded with black shales and glauconitic sandstones. The upper part of the formation is characterized by the presence of thin phosphatic beds, which are filled-extensively-with disordered and non stoichiometric (mean MgCO₃ = 41.4 ± 0.34 mol%) authigenic dolomite cement. SEM and the back scattered images of these coarse crystalline dolomite cements reveal that they display planar euhedral crystal boundaries, polymodal crystal size distribution and variable inclusion pattern. The relatively low and wide ranged δ¹⁸O (− 0.87 to − 4.15‰ VPDB) values of the dolomite cements coupled with their depleted Sr (mean = 187 ± 26 ppm) and high iron and manganese values (mean = 6851 ± 554 ppm and 11599 ± 229 ppm respectively) invoke that they were formed from mixed hypo-saline fluids within a mixing marine-meteoric zone probably during a low stand period at the vicinity of the Maastrichtian/Early Tertiary unconformity. Meanwhile, their negative δ¹³C (− 1.31 to − 3.56‰ VPDB) values argue for a possible involvement of isotopically light carbon, derived from degradation of organic matter, during their precipitation.     

Multivariate fire risk models using copula regression in Kalimantan,Indonesia

Natural Hazards - Forest fires have become a national issue yearly and elicited serious attention from the government and researchers in Indonesia. Copula-based joint distribution can construct a...     

Geochemical evaluation and thermal modeling of the Eocene–Oligocene Pabdeh and Middle Cretaceous Gurpi Formations in the northern part of the Dezful Embayment

Rock–Eval pyrolysis analysis, burial history, and 1D thermal maturity modeling have allowed the evaluation of the source rock potential, thermal maturation state, and impacts of the Pabdeh and Gurpi Formations in Cretaceous–Miocene petroleum system in the Naft Safid (NS) and Zeloi (ZE) oilfields, North Dezful Embayment. The total organic carbon (TOC) content of the Pabdeh and Gurpi Formations ranges from 0.2 to 4.7 wt% and 0.3 to 5.3 wt%, respectively. S2 values of the Pabdeh Formation in the ZE and NS oilfields vary from 0.41 to 13.77 and 0.29 to 14.5 mg HC (Hydrocarbon)/g rock, with an average value of 4.48 and 4.14 mg HC/g rock, respectively. These values for the Gurpi Formation in the ZE and NS oilfields range from 0.31 to 16.96 and 0.26 to 1.44 mg HC/g rock, with an average value of 8.54 and 2.43 mg HC/g rock, respectively. The S2 versus TOC diagram reveals a fair to good hydrocarbon generation potential of the Pabdeh Formation and poor to fair potential of the Gurpi Formation. The high values of S2 (S2 > S1) for samples of the both formations in the ZE and NS oilfields show that the samples are not contaminated with petroleum generated from underlying source rocks. The samples of the Pabdeh Formation in the ZE oilfield are characterized by a relatively narrow range of activation energy values with principal activation energy of 46 kcal/mol and frequency factor of 5.27 × 10⁺¹¹ s^?1. It seems that the high sulfur content of the Pabdeh organic matter probably caused the frequency factor and principal activation energy to be lower than usual. Hydrogen index (HI) values of the Pabdeh and Gurpi Formations in the ZE oilfield vary from 71 to 786 and 97 to 398 mg HC/g TOC, with an average value of 310 and 277 mg HC/g TOC, respectively. These values in the NS oilfield range from 66 to 546 and 51 to 525 mg HC/g TOC, with an average value of 256 and 227 mg HC/g TOC, respectively. Plot of HI vs. T _max value indicates that the majority of the Pabdeh and Gurpi samples contain predominantly type II kerogen and their organofacies are directly related to the more homogeneous precursor materials. Based on thermal maturity modeling results, kinetic parameters, and Rock–Eval analysis, both formations in the ZE and NS oilfields are thermally mature and immature or early mature stage, respectively.     

Prediction of long-term settlement on soft clay using shear wave velocity and damping characteristics

This paper presents a method of calculating long-term settlement of a loaded pad on soft clay at Klang, Selangor, Malaysia where the soil model is treated as an anelastic material of viscoelastic property. Initially, an elastic shear modulus (G) value from shear wave velocity profiles of the seismic tests from spectral analysis of surface wave (SASW) and continuous surface wave (CSW) tests was obtained. A value of damping (D) at an equivalent elastic strain is then calculated from the hysteresis of the plate load tests corrected to equivalent strain using the Damping–Strain formula. The calculated elastic settlement and its equivalent damping are then used to calculate the long-term settlement by applying the generalised viscoelastic formula. Comparisons to traditional methods of settlement predictions were made and the viscoelastic formula has shown better agreement to the observed settlement. Further modification of the settlement formula is introduced to improve the settlement accuracy to 10%.     

A Critical Review on Filter Design Criteria for Dispersive Base Soils

Dispersive soils have become common materials for the construction industry. Highly susceptible to internal erosion and piping, dispersive soils must only be used with specific engineering measure in order to avoid failures that were often catastrophic. In an earth dam, clayey soils are used for the core and sandy materials are used for the filter to retain the eroded core soils and prevent their migration. In the absence of first-rate core material, dispersive soils have been used instead. This paper provides a review of the current knowledge and experiences regarding filtration of core soils, particularly the dispersive ones. The engineering problems associated with the use of dispersive soils are discussed and significant findings from previous studies on protective filters are summarized. It is worthy to note that the current review considers both, the conventional, rather empirical filter design criteria based on particle sizes and the current, quite theoretical state-of-the-art filter design criteria based on constriction sizes, with discussion given on the advantages and disadvantages of both. The information provided by this review should be handy for the study, design, construction, and operation of related geotechnical and geo-environmental projects.     

The effect of climate and land use change on flow duration in the Maryland Piedmont region

This paper describes the use of a continuous streamflow model to examine the effects of climate and land use change on flow duration in six urbanizing watersheds in the Maryland Piedmont region. The hydrologic model is coupled with an optimization routine to achieve an agreement between observed and simulated streamflow. Future predictions are made for three scenarios: future climate change, land use change, and jointly varying climate and land use. Future climate is modelled using precipitation and temperature predictions for the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC) and Hadley climate models. Results show that a significant increase in temperature under the CCC climate predictions produces a decreasing trend in low flows. A significant increasing trend in precipitation under the Hadley climate predictions produces an increasing trend in peak flows. Land use change by itself, as simulated by an additional 10% increase in imperviousness (from 20·5 to 30·5%), produces no significant changes in the simulated flow durations. However, coupling the effects of land use change with climate change leads to more significant decreasing trends in low flows under the CCC climate predictions and more significant increasing trends in peak flows under Hadley climate predictions than when climate change alone is employed. These findings indicate that combined land use and climate change can result in more significant hydrologic change than either driver acting alone. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydraulic conductivity prediction based on grain-size distribution using M5 model tree

The hydraulic conductivity, K_s, is one of the most important hydraulic properties which controls the water and solute movement into the soil. It is measured on soil specimens in the laboratory. On the other hand, sometimes it is obtained by tests carried out in the field by a number of researchers. Therefore, several experimental formulas have developed to predict it. Recently, soft computing tools have been used to evaluate the hydraulic conductivity. However, these tools are not as transparent as empirical formulas. In this study, another soft computing approach, i.e. model trees, have been used for predicting the hydraulic conductivity. The main advantage of model trees is that, unlike the other data learning tools, they are easier to use and represent understandable mathematical rules more clearly. In this paper, a new formula that includes some parameters is derived to estimate the hydraulic conductivity. To develop the new formulas, experimental data sets of hydraulic conductivity were used. A comparison is made between the estimated hydraulic conductivity by this new formula and formulas given by other’s researches.