Climate variability in the southern Indian Ocean as revealed by self-organizing maps

Using a non-linear statistical analysis called “self-organizing maps”, the interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the southern Indian Ocean are investigated. The SST anomalies during austral summer from 1951 to 2006 are classified into nine types with differences in the position of positive and negative SST anomaly poles. To investigate the evolution of these SST anomaly poles, heat budget analysis of mixed-layer using outputs from an ocean general circulation model is conducted. The warming of the mixed-layer by the climatological shortwave radiation is enhanced (suppressed) as a result of negative (positive) mixed-layer thickness anomaly over the positive (negative) SST anomaly pole. This contribution from shortwave radiation is most dominant in the growth of SST anomalies. In contrast to the results reported so far, the contribution from latent heat flux anomaly is not so important. The discrepancy in the analysis is explained by the modulation in the contribution from the climatological heat flux by the interannual mixed-layer depth anomaly that was neglected in the past studies.     

The Hashima,Japan H4 chondrite: A newly reported meteorite

Abstract We report a new chondrite that fell in Hashima City in central Japan sometime during the period 1868–1912. The chondrite weighs 1110.64 g and exhibits distinct chondritic structure. Chondrules occupy 24 vol% of the stone and consist of olivine (average Fa_17,8), low-Ca pyroxene (average Fs_15,8 Wo_0.9), devitrified glass and lesser amounts of oligoclase (ca. Ab₈₀Or₄), kamacite, taenite, troilite and chromian spinel. Matrix occupying 76 vol% of the stone consists of olivine, low-Ca pyroxene, kamacite, taenite, troilite, cryptocrystalline minerals and lesser amounts of chromian spinel and chlorapatite. Matrix minerals have the same compositions as those in chondrules. Mineral chemistry, bulk chemistry and magnetic properties indicate that Hashima is an H-group chondrite. Well-defined chondrules, scarcely recrystallized oligoclase and relatively small variations of olivine and low-Ca pyroxene compositions indicate that Hashima is of petrologic type 4.     

Locally-induced nonlinear modes and multiple equilibria in planetary fluids

It is demonstrated that nonlinear Rossby modes, such as modons and IG eddies, can be excited in planetary fluids by a sufficiently strong forcing of potential vorticity. When a weak forcing is balanced with a weak dissipation, two (linear and nonlinear) equilibrium states can be produced, depending on the initial condition. When the fluid is inviscid, a sufficiently strong steady forcing may generate a sequence of propagating nonlinear eddies. A weak forcing, by contrast, only generates linear Rossby waves. The criterion which divides the high amplitude nonlinear state and the low amplitude linear state may be interpreted in terms of a ratio of a time necessary to force the eddy to a time for a fluid particle to circulate about the nonlinear eddy once.     

How does the ocean response to the withdrawal of water from a watergate located at the eastern boundary on a beta-plane?

The formation of the spun up region by the withdrawal of water from a watergate located in the eastern boundary in a homogeneous ocean on a beta-plane at low Rossby number is presented. The spun up region penetrates only westward from the Watergate because of the special character of the generated Rossby waves. The growth rate and the final longitudinal length of the spun up region in the dissipative system is much affected by the watergate scale in the north-south direction.The relation with the experiment ofLong (1952) and the geophysical application are presented.     

Evolution of an isolated eddy near a coast and its relevance to the “Kyucho”

The evolution of an isolated meso-scale eddy near a coast is studied numerically. In particular, it is found that the translation speed of the adjusted eddy is estimated well by the mutual induction mechanism adapted to a rotating stratified fluid. The nonlinear Kelvin wave excited during the adjustment process is also discussed in connection with the Kyucho, the sudden warming of coastal waters associated with swift currents.     

How are seasonal prediction skills related to models’ performance on mean state and annual cycle?

Given observed initial conditions, how well do coupled atmosphere–ocean models predict precipitation climatology with 1-month lead forecast? And how do the models’ biases in climatology in turn affect prediction of seasonal anomalies? We address these questions based on analysis of 1-month lead retrospective predictions for 21 years of 1981–2001 made by 13 state-of-the-art coupled climate models and their multi-model ensemble (MME). The evaluation of the precipitation climatology is based on a newly designed metrics that consists of the annual mean, the solstitial mode and equinoctial asymmetric mode of the annual cycle, and the rainy season characteristics. We find that the 1-month lead seasonal prediction made by the 13-model ensemble has skills that are much higher than those in individual model ensemble predictions and approached to those in the ERA-40 and NCEP-2 reanalysis in terms of both the precipitation climatology and seasonal anomalies. We also demonstrate that the skill for individual coupled models in predicting seasonal precipitation anomalies is positively correlated with its performances on prediction of the annual mean and annual cycle of precipitation. In addition, the seasonal prediction skill for the tropical SST anomalies, which are the major predictability source of monsoon precipitation in the current coupled models, is closely link to the models’ ability in simulating the SST mean state. Correction of the inherent bias in the mean state is critical for improving the long-lead seasonal prediction. Most individual coupled models reproduce realistically the long-term annual mean precipitation and the first annual cycle (solstitial mode), but they have difficulty in capturing the second annual (equinoctial asymmetric) mode faithfully, especially over the Indian Ocean (IO) and Western North Pacific (WNP) where the seasonal cycle in SST has significant biases. The coupled models replicate the monsoon rain domains very well except in the East Asian subtropical monsoon and the tropical WNP summer monsoon regions. The models also capture the gross features of the seasonal march of the rainy season including onset and withdraw of the Asian–Australian monsoon system over four major sub-domains, but striking deficiencies in the coupled model predictions are observed over the South China Sea and WNP region, where considerable biases exist in both the amplitude and phase of the annual cycle and the summer precipitation amount and its interannual variability are underestimated.     

Temporal variations in the abundance and sinking flux of diatoms under fast ice in summer near Syowa Station, East Antarctica

To investigate the fate of ice algae released from sea ice, we investigated the abundance, species composition, and sinking flux of diatoms in the water column under fast ice near Syowa Station, Antarctica during the summer of 2005/2006. The diatom assemblage in the water column consisted of chain-forming planktonic species, in contrast to the under-ice assemblage dominated by pennate species reported from this site in the past; this dissimilarity suggests the presence of an unconsolidated platelet ice layer under the congelation ice, within which planktonic species can bloom. Among the dominant diatoms, Porosira pseudodenticulata and Pseudo-nitzschia cf. turgiduloides were dominant in the water column, and their water column stocks were higher than their mass sedimentation. These species apparently maintain their populations in the surface layer, as their production remains in the water column. In contrast, Fragilariopsis kerguelensis and Thalassiosira australis were scarce in the water column but rich in the flux, indicating active sinking and export of their production to the benthic ecosystem. This distinction in buoyancy control and sinking characteristics of the dominant diatoms on release from the fast ice influences the diatom species composition and carbon flow under the ice.     

Influence of Indian Ocean Dipole and Pacific recharge on following year’s El Niño: interdecadal robustness

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can affect the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state of the following year, in addition to the well-known preconditioning by equatorial Pacific Warm Water Volume (WWV), as suggested by a study based on observations over the recent satellite era (1981–2009). The present paper explores the interdecadal robustness of this result over the 1872–2008 period. To this end, we develop a robust IOD index, which well exploits sparse historical observations in the tropical Indian Ocean, and an efficient proxy of WWV interannual variations based on the temporal integral of Pacific zonal wind stress (of a historical atmospheric reanalysis). A linear regression hindcast model based on these two indices in boreal fall explains 50 % of ENSO peak variance 14 months later, with significant contributions from both the IOD and WWV over most of the historical period and a similar skill for El Niño and La Niña events. Our results further reveal that, when combined with WWV, the IOD index provides a larger ENSO hindcast skill improvement than the Indian Ocean basin-wide mode, the Indian Monsoon or ENSO itself. Based on these results, we propose a revised scheme of Indo-Pacific interactions. In this scheme, the IOD–ENSO interactions favour a biennial timescale and interact with the slower recharge-discharge cycle intrinsic to the Pacific Ocean.     

An index for tropical temperate troughs over southern Africa

Strong cases of the tropical temperate troughs (TTT) that are responsible for the most of the summer rainfall over subtropical southern Africa are analyzed. An index for identifying the TTT is introduced for the first time using anomalies of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and the wind. The TTT is associated with a ridge-trough-ridge wave-like structure in the lower troposphere over southern Africa and the adjoining Indian Ocean. Therefore, the index considers physical processes that occur over southern Africa, adjoining the Atlantic and Indian Oceans to depict the variability of the TTT events. Unusually strong TTT events are identified when the standard deviations of the TTT indices defined by the OLR and wind anomalies in the selected regions are above 1.5 and 0.5 respectively. After applying this criterion and filtering out consecutive events, 55 TTT events are identified during the study period of December–January–February seasons from 1980–1981 to 2009–2010. From the composite analyses of those 55 events, it is found that the TTTs evolve with suppressed (enhanced) convection over the southwest Indian Ocean adjacent to Madagascar (southern Africa). The suppressed convection is, in turn, found to be associated with the enhanced convection around Sumatra in the southeast tropical Indian Ocean. This may explain why more TTT events occur in La Niña years as compared to El Niño years. Time evolution of the canonical TTT event shows that it starts 3 days prior to the mature phase of the event, suggesting possible predictability. After reaching a matured state, the system moves east toward the Indian Ocean and decays within the subsequent couple of days. In addition, the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) structure changes over Southern Africa/Madagascar during the TTT event and remains similar to climatology over other regions. The results indicate that the continental part of the ITCZ intensifies prior to the TTT event and then spreads southward following the mid-latitude influence during and after the event.     

Loss Processes of Sinking Fecal Pellets of Zooplankton in the Mesopelagic Layers of the Antarctic Marginal Ice Zone

A time-series sediment trap deployment was carried out in the marginal ice zone (MIZ) of the Antarctic Ocean (64°42′ S, 139°58′E; sea depth of 2930 m), during the austral summer. Cylindrical fecal pellets were the predominant sinking particles at 537 m in the middle of January and most of them disappeared below that depth, the loss of which were 25.3 mg C m⁻² day⁻¹ in the depth range of 537–796 m. Small-sized sinking particles other than fecal pellets increased in that depth range. Analyses of fecal pellets for remnant DNA corresponding to 16S mitochondrial RNA and 28S ribosomal RNA suggested that the large cylindrical fecal pellets at 537 m were produced by Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) and copepods. According to the presence of the DNA associated with sinking particles, E. superba fecal pellets rapidly disappeared below 537 m, while copepod fecal pellets still remained in the mesopelagic and bathypelagic layers. Small-sized amorphous sinking particles at 537 m also contained E. superba- and copepod-derived DNA. The abundance of trap-collected copepods (Oithona spp. and Oncaea spp.) which are known to be coprophagous increased at 796 m where many fecal pellets disappeared. We suggest that those rapidly sinking pellets were fragmented by copepods with intensified coprorhexy activity (fragmentation of fecal pellets) in the mesopelagic layers, reducing their sinking rates. These smaller and slower sinking particles can be important food sources for detritivorus or coprophagous animals in mesopelagic and bathypelagic layers in the MIZ. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.