Incorporating inflow uncertainty into risk assessment for reservoir operation

An attempt of using stochastic hydrologic technique to assess the intrinsic risk of reservoir operation is made in this study. A stochastic simulation model for reservoir operation is developed. The model consists of three components: synthetic generation model for streamflow and sediment sequences, one-dimensional delta deposit model for sediment transport processes in reservoirs, and simulation model for reservoir operation. This kind of integrated simulation model can be used to simulate not only the inflow uncertainty of streamflow and sedimentation, but also the variation in operation rules of reservoirs. It is herein used for the risk assessment of a reservoir, and the simulation is performed for different operation scenarios. Simulation for the 100-year period of sediment transport and deposition in the river-reservoir system indicates that the navigation risk is much higher than that of hydropower generation or sediment deposition in the reservoir. The risk of sediment deposition at the river-section near the backwater profile is also high thereby the navigation at the river-segment near this profile takes high risk because of inadequate navigation depth.     

Alteration and mass transfer inferred from the Hirabayashi GSJ drill penetrating the Nojima Fault, Japan

Abstract Mineralogical and geochemical studies on the fault rocks from the Nojima–Hirabayashi borehole, south-west Japan, are performed to clarify the alteration and mass transfer in the Nojima Fault Zone at shallow depths. A complete sequence from the hornblende–biotite granodiorite protolith to the fault core can be observed without serious disorganization by surface weathering. The parts deeper than 426.2 m are in the fault zone where rocks have suffered fault-related deformation and alteration. Characteristic alteration minerals in the fault zone are smectite, zeolites (laumontite, stilbite), and carbonate minerals (calcite and siderite). It is inferred that laumontite veins formed at temperatures higher than approximately 100°C during the fault activity. A reverse component in the movement of the Nojima Fault influences the distribution of zeolites. Zeolite is the main sealing mineral in relatively deep parts, whereas carbonate is the main sealing mineral at shallower depths. Several shear zones are recognized in the fault zone. Intense alteration is localized in the gouge zones. Rock chemistry changes in a different manner between different shear zones in the fault zone. The main shear zone (MSZ), which corresponds to the core of the Nojima Fault, shows increased concentration of most elements except Si, Al, Na, and K. However, a lower shear zone (LSZ-2), which is characterized by intense alteration rather than cataclastic deformation, shows a decreased concentration of most elements including Ti and Zr. A simple volume change analysis based on Ti and Zr immobility, commonly used to examine the changes in fault rock chemistry, cannot account fully for the different behaviors of Ti and Zr among the two gouge zones.     

Intermittent Phase Transitions in a Slider-block Model as a Mechanism for Earthquakes

— The aperiodic behavior of a two-dimensional stick-slip slider-block model of earthquakes is the subject of this study. The phenomenon of temporal phase transitions between creep and stick-slip motions is thoroughly analyzed and attributed to type-I intermittency. Asymmetry in the elastic forces is shown to play a key role in the emergence of complex behavior in the model. The unpredictability of chaotic bursts in the intermittent regime indicates potential difficulties for earthquake forecasting.     

Photographic monitoring system for observing heavy free-falling objects: Multi-stage design packages of radioactive waste

In the consideration of safety it is required that packages containing radioactive wastes when dumped at sea should keep their integrity and retain their contents until they reach the seabed. Packages containing simulated radioactive wastes (non-radioactive) were tested by a free-fall method at depthsca. 4,300 m in an area for dumping industrial waste off Shikoku Island. Since the weight of the largest package was 4,300 kg, special attention was paid to the connection of a buoyancy system with mooring rope. Descent and ascent velocities of the free-fall system were calculated prior to the experiment. A free-fall experiment with an extremely heavy object, heavier than ever previously reported, was accomplished without trouble by using the free-fall system. Recovery of a camera, flash-light, and other components was successful in each of the three experiments. Successive photographing of the package during descent was made and its integrity was observed using the photographs taken by the recovered camera. The packages remained intact during descent and at least for a short time after arrival on the seabed.     

On the solution of the carbonate chemistry system in ocean biogeochemistry models

We present a simplified method for solving the local equilibrium carbonate chemistry in numerical ocean biogeochemistry models. Compared to the methods typically used, the scheme is fast, efficient and compact. The accuracy of the solution is dictated by the number of species retained in the expression for alkalinity and there is almost no computational penalty for retaining minor contributions. We demonstrate that this scheme accurately reproduces the results of the commonly used method in the context of a three-dimensional global ocean carbon cycle model. Using this model we also show that neglecting the regional variations in surface dissolved inorganic phosphorus and silicic acid concentrations can lead to significant systematic bias in regional estimates of air–sea carbon fluxes using such models.     

Formation rate of water masses in the Japan sea

Water masses in the subsurface and the intermediate layer are actively formed due to strong winter convection in the Japan Sea. It is probable that some fraction of pollution is carried into the layer below the sea surface together with these water masses, so it is important to estimate the formation rate and turnover time of water masses to study the fate of pollutants. The present study estimates the annual formation rate and the turnover time of water masses using a three-dimensional ocean circulation model and a particle chasing method. The total annual formation rate of water masses below the sea surface amounted to about 3.53 ± 0.55 Sv in the Japan Sea. Regarding representative intermediate water masses, the annual formation rate of the Upper portion of the Japan Sea Proper Water (UJSPW) and the Japan Sea Intermediate Water (JSIW) were estimated to be about 0.38 ± 0.11 and 1.43 ± 0.16 Sv, respectively, although there was little evidence of the formation of deeper water masses below a depth of about 1500 m in a numerical experiment. An estimate of turnover time shows that the UJSPW and the JSIW circulate in the intermediate layer of the Japan Sea with timescales of about 22.1 and 2.2 years, respectively.     

Inter-manufacturer Difference and Temperature Dependency of the Fall-Rate of T-5 Expendable Bathythermograph

The fall-rate of the T-5 expendable bathythermograph (XBT) produced by Tsurumi Seiki (TSK) Co., Ltd and that by Sippican Inc., are intercompared by a series of contemporaneous and colocated measurements with conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) profilers. It is confirmed that the fall-rates of the two manufacturers' T-5 differ by about 5 percent, despite the fact that they had been believed to be identical for many years. The cause of the difference is discussed on the basis of a detailed cross-examination of the two T-5 models. It is found for the first time that the two models are different in several respects. The manufacturer's fall-rate equation is only applicable to the Sippican T-5, for which Boyd and Linzell's (1993) equation seems to be slightly more accurate. Kizu et al.'s (2005) equation gives a clearly less biased depth than the manufacturers' equation for the TSK T-5. It is also found that the fall-rates of both T-5 models are dependent on water temperature, perhaps because of viscosity. The temperature-dependency of the fall-rate of the TSK T-5 is larger than that of the Sippican T-5.     

Stable isotope variations in modern tropical speleothems: Evaluating equilibrium vs. kinetic isotope effects

Applications of speleothem calcite geochemistry in climate change studies require the evaluation of the accuracy and sensitivity of speleothem proxies to correctly infer paleoclimatic information. The present study of Harrison’s Cave, Barbados, uses the analysis of the modern climatology and groundwater system to evaluate controls on the C and O isotopic composition of modern speleothems. This new approach directly compares the δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C values of modern speleothems with the values for their corresponding drip waters in order to assess the degree to which isotopic equilibrium is achieved during calcite precipitation. If modern speleothems can be demonstrated to precipitate in isotopic equilibrium, then ancient speleothems, suitable for paleoclimatic studies, from the same cave environment may also have been precipitated in isotopic equilibrium. If modern speleothems are precipitated out of isotopic equilibrium, then the magnitude and direction of the C and O isotopic offsets may allow specific kinetic and/or equilibrium isotopic fractionation mechanisms to be identified.Carbon isotope values for the majority of modern speleothem samples from Harrison’s Cave fall within the range of equilibrium values predicted from the combined use of (1) calcite-water fractionation factors from the literature, (2) measured temperatures, and (3) measured δ¹³C values of the dissolved inorganic carbon of drip waters. Calcite samples range from ∼0.8‰ higher to ∼1.1‰ lower than predicted values. The ¹³C depletions are likely caused by kinetically driven departures in the fractionation between HCO₃⁻ (aq) and CaCO₃ from equilibrium conditions, caused by rapid calcite growth. ¹³C enrichments can be accounted for by Rayleigh distillation of the HCO₃⁻ (aq) reservoir during degassing of ¹³C-depleted CO₂.Modern speleothems from Harrison’s Cave are not in O isotopic equilibrium with their corresponding drip waters and are 0.2‰ to 2.3‰ enriched in ¹⁸O relative to equilibrium values. δ¹⁸O variations in modern calcite are likely controlled by kinetically driven changes in the fractionation between HCO₃⁻ (aq) and CaCO₃ from equilibrium conditions to nonequilibrium conditions, consistent with rapid calcite growth. In contrast to δ¹³C, δ¹⁸O values of modern calcite may not be affected by Rayleigh distillation during degassing because CO₂ hydration and hydroxylation reactions will buffer the O isotopic composition of the HCO₃⁻ (aq) reservoir. If the effects of Rayleigh distillation manifest themselves in the O isotopic system, they will result in ¹⁸O enrichment in the HCO₃⁻ (aq) reservoir and ultimately in the precipitated CaCO₃.     

Sequence-stratigraphic signatures of hemipelagic siltstones in deep-water successions: the Lower Pleistocene Kiwada and Otadai Formations, Boso Peninsula, Japan

Sequence-stratigraphic signatures of hemipelagic siltstones were investigated using profiles of the magnetic susceptibility and selected chemical composition of the Early Pleistocene deep-water successions of the Kiwada and Otadai Formations on the Boso Peninsula, Japan. In the context of an independently developed sequence-stratigraphic framework for the submarine-fan deposits of the Otadai Formation, the magnetic susceptibility and chemical composition, such as the concentrations of TiO₂, MgO and Fe₂O₃, show that the lowstand systems tract deposits have higher values of these parameters than the transgressive and highstand systems tract deposits. In contrast, the CaO contents have inverse relationships with the magnetic susceptibility and are higher in the transgressive and highstand systems tract deposits. The positions of sequence boundaries largely coincide with the horizons from which the magnetic susceptibility and the contents of mafic component increase abruptly. The sequence-stratigraphic variations in the magnetic susceptibility and chemical composition of the submarine-fan hemipelagic siltstones are due to increases in the input of fine-grained, terrigenous clastic sediments from midwater flow suspension, in addition to the direct fluvial supply of relatively unmodified terrigenous clastic sediments during relative sea-level lowstands, although grain size of hemipelagic siltstones does not exhibit any distinct variation through depositional sequences. The Kiwada Formation is characterized by siltstone-dominated basin-plain deposits and its sequence-stratigraphic classification has been difficult when using just lithofacies features. Nevertheless, the profiles of the magnetic susceptibility and chemical composition of the basin-plain deposits are similar to those of the submarine-fan deposits with duration largely equivalent to the 41,000-years obliquity cycle of the Early Pleistocene oxygen isotope sea-level index. This finding indicates that the profiles of the magnetic susceptibility and chemical composition of hemipelagic siltstones reflect sequence-stratigraphic variation in the input of fine-grained terrigenous clastic sediments to the deep-water environments and are crucial for the recognition of cryptic sequence boundaries in hemipelagic successions.