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101.
J. M. Gregory J. A. Church G. J. Boer K. W. Dixon G. M. Flato D. R. Jackett J. A. Lowe S. P. O'Farrell E. Roeckner G. L. Russell R. J. Stouffer M. Winton 《Climate Dynamics》2001,18(3-4):225-240
Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present
an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes
simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario
IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal
expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might
not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout
the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts
to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the
ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as
much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack
of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need
for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements.
Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001 相似文献
102.
G. Cevolani G. Bortolotti L. Foschini C. Franceschi G. Grassi G. Trivellone A. Hajduk V. Porubčan 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》1995,68(1-3):247-255
Continuous radio-wave monitoring of the Geminid activity in December 1992 and 1993 by using a forward scatter (FS) bistatic radar over the Bologna-Lecce baseline (700 km) in Italy, reveals peculiar structural aspects of the stream in terms of signal amplitude-rate and duration-rate dependence. The observational results of the Geminid display obtained in the two consecutive years with differentiated peak levels of transmitted power, exhibit different time distributions of underdense meteors against the signal received power. Both sets of the data relative to the peak activity in December 12–14, show reflection properties of Geminids which are atypical if compared with echoes from cometary-type showers, with really high echo counts at mid-upper levels of the peak received power. An assymmetric curve of activity of the Geminids complex is evidenced, with the peak flux of smaller particles occurring earlier than that of larger ones. 相似文献
103.
An efficient and robust method has been developed to locate multiple impulsive sources in an ocean environment. Global position system (GPS) receivers were installed on sonobuoys to obtain their locations within a few meters of accuracy. A sonobuoy field was deployed in a ring-type pattern. Charges were then set off at arbitrary locations within the ring, High-resolution plots were used to obtain direct path and/or first bottom bounce arrivals on each buoy. A model grid of arrival times was constructed, corresponding to the dimensions of the buoy field. A ray model previously developed here at the Applied Research Laboratories at the University of Texas at Austin (ARL:UT) was used to obtain model travel times. The minimum value of the least-square-type error between the real arrival times and the modeled travel times resulted in an unambiguous location of the source, within the limits of the grid spacing chosen. This value was calculated by picking one receiver as the reference and then summing the timing errors of the remaining receivers relative to the reference. Successive iterations with finer grid spacings result in source localization within the accuracy of the buoy locations. The localization routine was extended by allowing permutations of the pulse arrivals on each buoy to account for multiple sources closely separated in time and/or space. An automated correlation technique is presented as an alternative to the leading edge-detection method used here for obtaining relative arrival times. Two proof-of-concept experiments were performed and some results of data obtained at Lake Travis and the Gulf of Mexico are presented 相似文献
104.
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107.
Northern Hemispheric“polar lows”,i.e.maritime,small,but fairly intense cyclonic systems have been studied formore than two decades.Recently researchers have turned their attention towards the occurrence of polar lows and othersmall-scale cyclonic disturbances on the Southern Hemisphere.In this paper a short account of our present knowledgeof Northern Hemispheric polar lows will be given,followed by some preliminary results of an investigation of the natureand occurrence of polar lows on the Southern Hemisphere. 相似文献
108.
We carried out a series of linear stability analyses of the radial and low-degree non-radial p modes for stellar models with initial masses of . The stellar models were computed by using convective overshoot distance , 0.25 and 0.40 H P . Our numerical results show that the β Cephei instability strip forms a horn-shaped region pointing upwards near the main sequence on the Hertzsprung–Russell diagram (HRD). The lower part of the instability strip for the radial modes join the zero-age main-sequence (ZAMS) at , while the top of the instability strip extends up to . The instability strip for the non-radial modes is even wider. The overall instability strip is dominated by the radial and non-radial fundamental modes. The first overtone (the radial-order index is also pulsationally unstable. We have shown that the β Cephei stability is almost independent of the overshoot parameter d over used for the stellar models, while it depends critically on the metal abundance. With decreasing metal abundance, the instability region shrinks and eventually disappears for . 相似文献
109.
Shi Zhi-dong Li Zhong-yuanUniversity of Science Technology of China Hefei PRC Advanced Centre for Earth Science Astronomy Third World Academy of Science 《紫金山天文台台刊》1996,(2)
Areview about K-H instability related to comet tail is presented.The effect of dust graing on KHI is theoretically analysed and relations of critical shear to excit KHI with the properties of dust grains both for sheared ion flow and for sheared dust flow re put out.Their possible application in comet tail is suggested. 相似文献
110.
PROPAGATION OF 30—60 DAY LOW FREQUENCY OSCILLATIONS AND THEIR INFLUENCE UPON THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES JET STREAM DURING NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER 下载免费PDF全文
Based on daily ECMWF gridpoint data of two winters during 1981—1983 including an ENSOyear,propagation of low frequency oscillations(LFO)during Northern Hemisphere winters andtheir influences upon 30—60 day oscillations of the subtropical jet stream are studied with the sta-tistical methods as complex empirical orthogonal function(CEOF)and so on.Results show that inthe winter of a normal year(1981—1982),30—60 day oscillations in the subtropical zone aremainly in the northern and southern flanks of exit region of jet stream.In the ENSO year(1982—1983),they are mainly in the vicinity of entrance and exit regions of jet stream.Intraseasonalchanges of subtropical jet stream manifested themselves as latitudinal fluctuation or longitudinalprogression or regression of about 40 day period.There are marked differences between propagat-ing passages of low frequency modes responsible for changes of subtropical jet stream in the normalyear(1981—1982)and in the ENSO year(1982—1983).Changes of oscillation amplitude showobvious phases.In general,the one in late winter is stronger than that in early winter,strongestone occurs in February. 相似文献