Snowpack and runoff response to climate change in Owens Valley and Mono Lake watersheds

Precipitation from the Eastern Sierra Nevada watersheds of Owens Lake and Mono Lake is one of the main water sources for Los Angeles’ over 4 million people, and plays a major role in the ecology of Mono Lake and of these watersheds. We use the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model at daily time scale, forced by climate projections from 16 global climate models under greenhouse gas emissions scenarios B1 and A2, to evaluate likely hydrologic responses in these watersheds for 1950–2099. Comparing climate in the latter half of the 20th Century to projections for 2070–2099, we find that all projections indicate continued temperature increases, by 2–5 °C, but differ on precipitation changes, ranging from ?24 % to +56 %. As a result, the fraction of precipitation falling as rain is projected to increase, from a historical 0.19 to a range of 0.26–0.52 (depending on the GCM and emission scenario), leading to earlier timing of the annual hydrograph’s center, by a range of 9–37 days. Snowpack accumulation depends on temperature and even more strongly on precipitation due to the high elevation of these watersheds (reaching 4,000 m), and projected changes for April 1 snow water equivalent range from ?67 % to +9 %. We characterize the watershed’s hydrologic response using variables integrated in space over the entire simulated area and aggregated in time over 30-year periods. We show that from the complex dynamics acting at fine time scales (seasonal and sub-seasonal) simple dynamics emerge at this multi-year time scale. Of particular interest are the dynamic effects of temperature. Warming anticipates hydrograph timing, by raising the fraction of precipitation falling as rain, reducing the volume of snowmelt, and initiating snowmelt earlier. This timing shift results in the depletion of soil moisture in summer, when potential evapotranspiration is highest. Summer evapotranspiration losses are limited by soil moisture availability, and as a result the watershed’s water balance at the annual and longer scales is insensitive to warming. Mean annual runoff changes at base-of-mountain stations are thus strongly determined by precipitation changes.     

Projected implications of climate change for road safety in Greater Vancouver, Canada

The elevated risk of collision while driving during precipitation has been well documented by the road safety community, with heavy rainfall events of particular concern. As the climate warms in the coming century, altered precipitation patterns are likely. The current study builds on the extensive literature on weather-related driving risks and draws on the climate change impact literature in order to explore the implications of climate change for road safety. It presents both an approach for conducting such analyses, as well as empirical estimates of the direction and magnitude of change in road safety for the highly urbanized Greater Vancouver metropolitan region on Canada’s west coast. The signal that emerges from the analysis is that projections of greater rainfall frequency are expected to translate into higher collision counts by the mid 2050s. The greatest adverse safety impact is likely to be concentrated on moderate to heavy rainfall days (≥ 10 mm), which are associated with more highly elevated risks today. This suggests that particular attention should be paid to future changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events.     

Heavy Metal Concentrations in European Mosses: 2000/2001 Survey

The heavy metals in mosses survey was originally established in 1980 as a joint Danish–Swedish initiative under the leadership of Åke Rühling, Sweden and has, since then, been repeated at five-yearly intervals with an increasing number of countries and individuals participating. Twenty-eight European countries, almost 7000 sites and about 100 individuals have been involved in the most recent survey in 2000/2001. The survey provides data on concentrations of 10 heavy metals (arsenic, cadmium, chromium, copper, iron, lead, mercury, nickel, vanadium, zinc) in naturally growing mosses throughout Europe. The technique of moss analysis provides a surrogate measure of the spatial patterns of heavy metal deposition from the atmosphere to terrestrial systems, and is easier and cheaper than conventional precipitation analysis. The aims of the survey are to determine patterns of variation in the heavy metal concentration of mosses across Europe, identify the main polluted areas, produce regional maps and further develop the understanding of long-range transboundary pollution.As in previous surveys, there was an east/west decrease in heavy metal concentrations in mosses, related in particular to industrial emissions. Former industrial sites and historic mines accounted for the location of some high concentrations in areas without contemporary industries. Long-range transboundary transport appears to account for elevated concentrations of heavy metals in areas without emission sources, such as lead in southern Scandinavia (presumably from emission sources elsewhere in Europe).