Investigation of meteorological extreme events over coastal regions of Iran

In this study, in order to detect probable trends and effects of climatic extreme events of precipitation and temperature as well as maximum relative humidity, dew point temperature, sunshine hours, and wind speed, 12 stations on the northern and southern coastlines of Iran were investigated from 1977 to 2007. For this purpose, 27 indices of precipitation and temperature, which are specified by the Expert Team of the World Meteorological Organization and Climate Variability and Predictability, were calculated by using RClimDex software. The Mann?CKendall method was also used to detect possible trends in the data time series. The results indicate that temperature indices are absolutely consistent with warming. Warm nights, hot days, and hot day and night frequencies increased, while cold spell and cool day and night frequencies declined. The minimum temperature experienced a considerable rise both in its maximum and minimum values. The minimum temperature had a higher increase than the maximum temperature. Therefore, diurnal temperature ranges have experienced dramatic declines. In the northern coastal sites, hot day frequency and hottest day temperature showed higher magnitudes than those of the southern sites as a result of the significant increase in the maximum sunshine hours in northern stations. This enhancement led to a considerable increase in the maximum wind speed. Consequently, relative humidity declined in the northern sites. Precipitation indices indicate few significant trends over the studied period. Temporal precipitation distribution was different from station to station. Three precipitation patterns were detected at individual stations, although an overall regional rainfall pattern was not detectable. On the whole, the results of this study emphasize that the water resources in the studied area are going to become problematic.     

Preparation of frost atlas using different interpolation methods in a semiarid region of south of Iran

In this research, suitability of different kriging and inverse distance weighted (IDW) methods in estimating occurrence date of frost was evaluated. Data included minimum daily air temperature values from 27 meteorological stations of Fars province in southern Iran from 18 to 45 years. Data ranges of 0 to ?1.5, ?1.5 to ?3 and below ?3°C were considered as mild, moderate and severe frost intensities, respectively. Starting with the first day of autumn, iso-occurrence days for the frost intensities and occurrence probabilities (25%, 50%, 75% and 90%) were estimated using ordinary kriging, cokriging, residual kriging type 1 (RK1), residual kriging type 2 (RK2), universal kriging and IDW methods. In these models, the errors of estimated frost intensities at different probabilities were lowest in the RK2 model, but lack of establishment of spatial structure due to long distance between stations caused the predictions not to be acceptable in some cases. In a proposed method (modified inverse distance weighted, MIDW), the trend between the first and last days of frost occurrence with earth elevation was removed, and the reminder values were estimated by (IDW) method. Although, the errors for estimated frost dates by MIDW and RK2 methods were the same, but the MIDW method did not have the spatial establishment shortcoming. Furthermore, the simplicity and practicality of the MIDW method makes it a reasonable selection.     

Response Surface Analysis and Statistical Modeling of Sulfide Generation from Municipal Wastewater

In this study, the interactive effects of four independent variables (initial chemical oxygen demand (COD) concentration, rotational velocity, temperature, and retention time) on the sulfide generation process in municipal wastewater were investigated. The process was modeled and analyzed with the variables in a series batch experiments. Experiments were conducted based on a central composite face‐centered design and analyzed using response surface methodology. The region of exploration for the process was taken as the area enclosed by COD (250 and 650 mg/L), rotational velocity (40 and 200 rpm), temperature (16 and 28°C), and retention time (2 and 40 h) boundaries. Eleven dependent parameters were either directly measured or calculated as response. The most influential variable on H₂S (g) production was found to be retention time. The results showed that simultaneous increase in temperature and rotational velocity caused an increasing trend in the amount of H₂S (g) emitted. Total sulfide was decreased by increasing rotational velocity due to more H₂S (g) secretion resulting from increased mixing rate. The present study provides valuable information about interrelations of quality and process parameters at different values of the studied variables.     

Landslide susceptibility assessment of South Pars Special Zone,southwest Iran

This study assesses the landslide susceptibility of the South Pars Special Zone (SPSZ) region that is located in southwest Iran. For this purpose, a combinatorial method containing multi-criteria decision-making, likelihood ratio and fuzzy logic was applied in two levels (regional and local) at three critical zones (northwest, middle and southeast of the project area). The analysis parameters were categorised in seven main triggering factors such as climatology, geomorphology, geology, geo-structure, seismic activity, landslide prone areas and man-made activities which have different classes with multi-agent partnership correlations. Landslide susceptibility maps were prepared for these levels and zones after purified and enriched fuzzy trending runs were performed. According to the results of the risk-ability assessment of the landslide occurrences for SPSZ, the north part of the study area which includes the south edge of the Assalouyeh anticline and the southern part of the Kangan anticline were estimated as high-risk potential areas that were used in landslide hazard mitigation assessment and in land-use planning.     

Wavelet-based multifractal analysis of earthquakes temporal distribution in Mammoth Mountain volcano,Mono County,Eastern California

This paper presents a wavelet-based multifractal approach to characterize the statistical properties of temporal distribution of the 1982–2012 seismic activity in Mammoth Mountain volcano. The fractal analysis of time-occurrence series of seismicity has been carried out in relation to seismic swarm in association with magmatic intrusion happening beneath the volcano on 4 May 1989. We used the wavelet transform modulus maxima based multifractal formalism to get the multifractal characteristics of seismicity before, during, and after the unrest. The results revealed that the earthquake sequences across the study area show time-scaling features. It is clearly perceived that the multifractal characteristics are not constant in different periods and there are differences among the seismicity sequences. The attributes of singularity spectrum have been utilized to determine the complexity of seismicity for each period. Findings show that the temporal distribution of earthquakes for swarm period was simpler with respect to pre- and post-swarm periods.     

Distribution of total petroleum hydrocarbons in Dezful aquifer,Southwest of Iran

Determination of total petroleum hydrocarbon distribution (TPH) in groundwater of Dezful aquifer was the main purpose of this study. The study area, which is located between latitudes 32°00′ and 32°35′?N and longitudes 48°10′ and 49°35′?E, covers about 1,920 km² in the north of Khuzestan Province, Iran. Hydrocarbon pollutants in the area were being released into the aquifer, from a variety of sources. An oil pipe crash accident, which occurred on 19 Feb. 2009 in the vicinity of the northern part of the study area, released about 6,000 barrels of crude oil to the Karkhe River. Other possible sources of TPH in the region are asphalt factories, gas stations, and the Sabzab oil pump station. Since the main source of drinking water in the Dezful area is groundwater reservoirs, this study would be very crucial, especially when there is considerable agricultural activity in the area as well. In order to determine the presence of TPH and heavy metals in the groundwater, samples were taken from wells with different usage within two periods, i.e., in Nov. 2008 and May 2009. The second sampling operation was carried out to determine the effect of the accident in the water resources. In situ groundwater parameter measurements including pH, dissolved oxygen, temperature, and electrical conductivity were also carried out in the field. Based on the results, there are four zones in the study area which were contaminated with TPH from different origins: (1) southeast of Dezful City, which was contaminated by Shokati gas station; (2) southeast of Shush City, which was contaminated by an asphalt factory; (3) southwest of Dezful City, which was contaminated by Sabzab oil pump station; and (4) the shores of Karkhe River which were contaminated due to the pipeline crash accident. This could be a serious threat to the environment and human health because TPH concentration was higher than the EPA standard in the study area. Heavy metals were not distributed in a uniform pattern in the aquifer. The concentrations were lower than the contamination level based on the EPA drinking standard, and there was no meaningful relation between concentrations of TPH and the heavy metals. It was recommended that a monitoring network should be designed to monitor oil contaminants in the ground and surface water monthly because of importance of the water resources and presence of potential oil contaminant sources.     

Tectonically controlled sedimentation: impact on sediment supply and basin evolution of the Kashafrud Formation (Middle Jurassic,Kopeh-Dagh Basin,northeast Iran)

The Kashafrud Formation was deposited in the extensional Kopeh-Dagh Basin during the Late Bajocian to Bathonian (Middle Jurassic) and is potentially the most important siliciclastic unit from NE Iran for petroleum geology. This extensional setting allowed the accumulation of about 1,700 m of siliciclastic sediments during a limited period of time (Upper Bajocian–Bathonian). Here, we present a detailed facies analysis combined with magnetic susceptibility (MS) results focusing on the exceptional record of the Pol-e-Gazi section in the southeastern part of the basin. MS is classically interpreted as related to the amount of detrital input. The amount of these detrital inputs and then the MS being classically influenced by sea-level changes, climate changes and tectonic activity. Facies analysis reveals that the studied rocks were deposited in shallow marine, slope to pro-delta settings. A major transgressive–regressive cycle is recorded in this formation, including fluvial-dominated delta to turbiditic pro-delta settings (transgressive phase), followed by siliciclastic to mixed siliciclastic and carbonate shoreface rocks (regressive phase). During the transgressive phase, hyperpycnal currents were feeding the basin. These hyperpycnal currents are interpreted as related to important tectonic variations, in relation to significant uplift of the hinterland during opening of the basin. This tectonic activity was responsible for stronger erosion, providing a higher amount of siliciclastic input into the basin, leading to a high MS signal. During the regressive phase, the tectonic activity strongly decreased. Furthermore, the depositional setting changed to a wave- to tide-dominated, mixed carbonate–siliciclastic setting. Because of the absence of strong tectonic variations, bulk MS was controlled by other factors such as sea-level and climatic changes. Fluctuations in carbonate production, possibly related to sea-level variations, influenced the MS of the siliciclastic/carbonate cycles. Carbonate intervals are characterized by a strong decrease of MS values indicates a gradual reduction of detrital influx. Therefore, the intensity of tectonic movement is thought to be the dominant factor in controlling sediment supply, changes in accommodation space and modes of deposition throughout the Middle Jurassic sedimentary succession in the Pol-e-Gazi section and possibly in the Kopeh-Dagh Basin in general.     

An evolutionary approach to modelling the thermomechanical behaviour of unsaturated soils

A new data‐mining approach is presented for modelling of the stress–strain and volume change behaviour of unsaturated soils considering temperature effects. The proposed approach is based on the evolutionary polynomial regression (EPR), which unlike some other data‐mining techniques, generates a transparent and structured representation of the behaviour of systems directly from raw experimental (or field) data. The proposed methodology can operate on large quantities of data in order to capture nonlinear and complex relationships between contributing variables. The developed models allow the user to gain a clear insight into the behaviour of the system. Unsaturated triaxial test data from the literature were used for development and verification of EPR models. The developed models were also used (in a coupled manner) to produce the entire stress path of triaxial tests. Comparison of the EPR model predictions with the experimental data revealed the robustness and capability of the proposed methodology in capturing and reproducing the constitutive thermomechanical behaviour of unsaturated soils. More importantly, the capability of the developed models in accurately generalizing the predictions to unseen data cases was illustrated. The results of a sensitivity analysis showed that the models developed from data are able to capture and represent the physical aspects of the unsaturated soil behaviour accurately. The merits and advantages of the proposed methodology are also discussed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Toward real-time three-dimensional mapping of surficial aquifers using a hybrid modeling approach

A hybrid modeling approach is proposed for near real-time three-dimensional (3D) mapping of surficial aquifers. First, airborne frequency-domain electromagnetic (FDEM) measurements are numerically inverted to obtain subsurface resistivities. Second, a machine-learning (ML) algorithm is trained using the FDEM measurements and inverted resistivity profiles, and borehole geophysical and hydrogeologic data. Third, the trained ML algorithm is used together with independent FDEM measurements to map the spatial distribution of the aquifer system. Efficacy of the hybrid approach is demonstrated for mapping a heterogeneous surficial aquifer and confining unit in northwestern Nebraska, USA. For this case, independent performance testing reveals that aquifer mapping is unbiased with a strong correlation (0.94) among numerically inverted and ML-estimated binary (clay-silt or sand-gravel) layer resistivities (5–20 ohm-m or 21–5,000 ohm-m), and an intermediate correlation (0.74) for heterogeneous (clay, silt, sand, gravel) layer resistivities (5–5,000 ohm-m). Reduced correlation for the heterogeneous model is attributed to over-estimating the under-sampled high-resistivity gravels (about 0.5 % of the training data), and when removed the correlation increases (0.87). Independent analysis of the numerically inverted and ML-estimated resistivities finds that the hybrid procedure preserves both univariate and spatial statistics for each layer. Following training, the algorithms can map 3D surficial aquifers as fast as leveled FDEM measurements are presented to the ML network.     

A MODIS-based modeling scheme for the estimation of downward surface shortwave radiation under cloud-free conditions

Atmospheric aerosol optical depth (AOD) plays an important role in radiation modeling and partly determines the accuracy of estimated downward surface shortwave radiation (DSSR). In this study, Iqbal’s model C was used to estimate DSSR under cloud-free conditions over the Koohin and Chitgar sites in Tehran, Iran; the estimated DSSR was based on (1) our proposed hybrid modeling scheme where the AOD is retrieved using the Simplified Aerosol Retrieval Algorithm (SARA), ground-based measurements at the AERONET site in Zanjan and (2) the AOD from the Terra MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor. Several other Terra MODIS land and atmospheric products were also used as input data, including geolocation properties, water vapor, total ozone, surface reflectance, and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiance. SARA-based DSSR and MODIS-based DSSR were evaluated with ground-based DSSR measurements at the Koohin and Chitgar sites in 2011 and 2013, respectively; the averaged statistics for SARA-based DSSR [R ² ≈ 0.95, RMSE ≈ 22 W/m² (2.5% mean value), and bias ≈ 3 W/m²] were stronger than those for MODIS-based DSSR [R ² ≈ 0.79, RMSE ≈ 51 W/m² (5.8% mean value), and bias ≈ 34 W/m²]. These results show that the proposed hybrid scheme can be used at regional to global scales under the assumption of future access to spatially distributed AERONET sites. Additionally, the robustness of this modeling scheme was exemplified by estimating the aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) during a dust storm in Southwest Asia. The results were comparable to those of previous studies and showed the strength of our modeling scheme.