Predicted changes in fire weather suggest increases in lightning fire initiation and future area burned in the mixedwood boreal forest

Forecasting future fire activity as a function of climate change is a step towards understanding the future state of the western mixedwood boreal ecosystem. We developed five annual weather indices based on the Daily Severity Rating (DSR) of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System and estimated their relationship with annual, empirical counts of lightning fire initiation for 588 landscapes in the mixedwood boreal forest in central-eastern Alberta, Canada from data collected between 1983 and 2001 using zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. Two indices contributed to a parsimonious model of initiation; these were Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR), and DSR-sequence count. We used parameter estimates from this model to predict lightning fire initiation under weather conditions predicted in 1 × CO₂ (1975–1985), 2 × CO₂ (2040–2049) and 3 × CO₂ (2080–2089) conditions simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). We combined predicted initiation rates for these conditions with existing empirical estimates of the number of fire initiations that grow to be large fires (fire escapes) and the fire size distribution for the region, to predict the annual area burned by lightning-caused fires in each of the three climate conditions. We illustrated a 1.5-fold and 1.8-fold increase of lightning fire initiation by 2040–2049 and 2080–2089 relative to 1975–1985 conditions due to changes in fire weather predicted by the CRCM; these increases were calculated independent of changes in lightning activity. Our simulations suggested that weather-mediated increases in initiation frequency could correspond to a substantial increase in future area burned with 1.9-fold and 2.6-fold increases in area burned in 2040–2049 and 2080–2089 relative to 1975–1985 conditions, respectively. We did not include any biotic effects in these estimates, though future patterns of initiation and fire growth will be regulated not only by weather, but also by vegetation and fire management.     

Taming a “chaotic concept”: gentrification and segmented consumption in Brooklyn, 2002–2012

Public debate and prior scholarship tend to emphasize the link between gentrification and high-end chain retail, underscoring the importance of taste cultures tied to social class in making sense of gentrification’s impact on neighborhood identity. In this study, we present evidence from 10 years of change in the businesses of Brooklyn, New York City, a period of extensive gentrification across a wide variety of neighborhood and census-tract level contexts. Adopting census tracts clustered in neighborhoods as the units of analysis, we model the effects of institutional and demographic change on two separate outcomes: chain retail density and homogeneity in the types of goods and services available. We argue that changes in consumer culture embedded in broader processes of gentrification are neither “chaotic” nor “unitary” but are “segmented” according to local spatial and demographic context, taking two discrete forms: institutionally facilitated corporatization; lifestyle-driven homogenization.     

Natural aggregates in the performance and durability of concrete: chemical characteristics

This article continues from the earlier feature in Geology Today (2011, v.27, n.4) and looks at the influence of chemical reactivity within concrete due to the presence of unsound aggregates or deleterious material incorporated in the aggregate used in the concrete mix. Some of the more disruptive problems from chemical unsoundness come from the presence of chlorides, which cause rusting in reinforced concrete or, sulphate attack from ground waters. Both of these reactions are relatively common in Britain. Alkali–silica reactions with aggregates and cement is not too prevalent in Britain but can be very prevalent and disruptive elsewhere in the world.     

利用AutoPrep技术抑制型电导离子色谱法检测土壤中碘

利用AutoPrep自动样品前处理技术，对土壤燃烧吸收液进行在线预浓缩，抑制型电导进行检测，建立了一种全新思路的检测土壤样品中碘的方法。选择亲水性非常强的氢氧化物选择性IonPac AS16阴离子交换色谱柱，淋洗液发生装置在线产生KOH进行等梯度淋洗，抑制型电导检测。结果表明，对于土壤燃烧吸收液中碘离子的测定，方法检出限（S／N=3）可达1．2μg/L，线性相关系数为0．9998，方法精密度（RSD，n=7）为1．161％～4．566％，回收率在90．6％～100．8％。采用AutoPrep电导检测和脉冲安培检测离子色谱法测定不同土壤样品中的碘，两种方法的检测结果基本一致。方法在提供了稳定的系统空白的同时，还具备自动化程度高、操作简单、重现性好、灵敏度高、系统稳定、节约时间、成本低廉和对环境友好等多方面特点，适合于大批量土壤普查中碘的分析。     

Use of annular flumes to determine the influence of current velocity and bivalves on material flux at the sediment-water interface

A benthic annular flume for both laboratory and in situ deployment on intertidal mudflats is described. The flume provides a means of quantifying material flux (i.e., biodeposition of suspended particulates, sediment resuspension, nutrients, oxygen, and contaminants) across the sediment-water interface in relation to changes in current velocity and benthic community structure and/or population density of key macrofauna species. Flume experiments have investigated the impact of the infaunal bivalveMacoma balthica and the epifaunal bivalveMytilus edulis on seston and sediment flux at the sediment-water interface. The bioturbatorMacoma was found to increase the sediment resuspension and/or erodability by 4-fold, at densities similar to those recorded at the Skeffling mudflat (Humber estuary) (i.e., >1000 individuals m^?2). There was a significant correlation between sediment resuspension andMacoma density (r=0.99; p<0.001), which supported previous in situ field observations indicating bioturbation byMacoma enhanced sediment erodability. Biodeposition rates (g m^?2 h¹) ofMytilus edulis andCerastoderma edule were quantified and related to changes in population density in a mussel bed (Cleethorpes, Humber estuary). Biodeposition rates were up to 40-times the natural sedimentation rates. At the highest mussel bed densities (i.e., 50–100% cover or >1400 mussels m^?2) the physical presence of this epifaunal bivalve on the sediment surface reduced erosion by 10-fold. The shift from net biodeposition to net erosion occurred at current velocities of 20–25 cm s^?1. These results demonstrate that infaunal and epifaunal bivalves can have a significant impact on seston flux or sediment deposition and on sediment resuspension or erodability in estuaries where there are extensive mudflats.     

Monitoring qualitative spatiotemporal change for geosensor networks

Recent technological advances in geosensor networks demand new models of distributed computation with dynamic spatial information. This paper presents a computational model of spatial change in dynamic regions (such as may be derived from discretizations of continuous fields) founded on embeddings of graphs in orientable surfaces. Continuous change, connectedness and regularity of dynamic regions are defined and local transition rules are used to constrain region evolution and enable more efficient inference of a region's state. The model provides a framework for the detection of global high‐level events based on local low‐level ‘snapshot’ spatiotemporal data. The approach has particular relevance to environmental monitoring with geosensor networks, where technological constraints make the detection of global behaviour from local conditions highly advantageous.     

Unstable climates: Exploring the statistical and social constructions of ‘normal’ climate

The idea of climate has both statistical and social foundations. Both of these dimensions of climate change over time: climate, as defined by meteorological statistics, changes for both natural and anthropogenic reasons; and our expectations of future climate also change, as cultures, societies and knowledge evolves. This paper explores the interactions between these different expressions of climate change by focusing on the idea of ‘normal’ climates defined by statistics. We show how this idea came into being in meteorological circles and then review how this idea of climatic normality gets entangled with cultural and psychological processes. Using data from historical and predicted climates in the UK, we illustrate the significance of choosing different baseline ‘normals’ for retrospective and prospective interpretations of climate change. Since the choice of these statistical ‘normals’ reflects cultural, political and psychological preferences and practices as much as scientific ones, we argue that expectations of the climatic future are influenced by social as well as statistical norms. Seeing climate as co-constructed between the psycho-cultural constraints of society and the physical constraints of the material world offers a different way of thinking about the instabilities of climate and the ways we adapt to them.     

Airborne MSS for land cover classification II

A basic methodology for land cover classification using airborne multispectral scanner (MSS) imagery is outlined. This includes waveband selection and radiometric calibration; correction for scan angle and atmosphere; training and classification and accuracy assessment. Refinements to this basic methodology include per‐field sampling and the addition of low‐pass filtering, image texture, prior probabilities and two dates of imagery.

For a study area in upland England, eight land covers were classified with a mean accuracy of 52.6 percent using the basic methodology. This was increased to 79.0 percent by using a suitability refined methodology. Per‐field sampling accounted for the largest proportion of this increase.     

Representation of Uncertainty and Integration of PGIS-based Grazing Intensity Maps Using Evidential Belief Functions

In a project to classify livestock grazing intensity using participatory geographic information systems (PGIS), we encountered the problem of how to synthesize PGIS-based maps of livestock grazing intensity that were prepared separately by local experts. We investigated the utility of evidential belief functions (EBFs) and Dempster's rule of combination to represent classification uncertainty and integrate the PGIS-based grazing intensity maps. These maps were used as individual sets of evidence in the application of EBFs to evaluate the proposition that " This area or pixel belongs to the high, medium, or low grazing intensity class because the local expert(s) says (say) so ". The class-area-weighted averages of EBFs based on each of the PGIS-based maps show that the lowest degree of classification uncertainty is associated with maps in which "vegetation species" was used as the mapping criterion. This criterion, together with local landscape attributes of livestock use may be considered as an appropriate standard measure for grazing intensity. The maps of integrated EBFs of grazing intensity show that classification uncertainty is high when the local experts apply at least two mapping criteria together. This study demonstrates the usefulness of EBFs to represent classification uncertainty and the possibility to use the EBF values in identifying and using criteria for PGIS-based mapping of livestock grazing intensity.     

Denudation,vertical crustal movements and sedimentary basin infill

Denudation and vertical crustal movements are linked through the isostatic equation for conservation of lithospheric mass. Recent empirical results from a wide range of sources are presented on the rates of these processes. Denudation alone can cause non-tectonic (isostatic) surface uplift of the right magnitude predicted by theory. A case is made, following Ahnert, for a single linear relationship (although with much scatter) between denudation rate and mean drainage basin relief for large basins. Some recent determinations of denudational time constants have neglected to include tectonic and isostatic terms which oppose the reduction of relief by denudation. Application of diffusional transport models to determine the rate of sediment deposition are severely limited by inherent one-dimensionality and neglect of suspended and washload contributions. Basin infill sequences may be used to determine past sediment transfer coefficients from a hinterland, but problems arise in the apportionment of the various hinterland fluxes that occur in »real-world« three dimensional basins. Sediment yields in smaller half-graben and growth fold basins must reflect the magnitude of drainage basins and the complex local controls upon sediment yields. Examples are given from extensional basins in the Western USA and Greece. The »length« of tectonic relief produced in tilt blocks and growth folds will control the area of drainage basin developed (through the fractal form of Hack's Law) and hence the magnitude of deposition in sedimentary basins adjoining tectonic uplands.

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Zusammenfassung Denudation und vertikale Krustenbewegungen sind verbunden durch das isostatische Gesetz über den Erhalt der lithosphärischen Masse. Neuerliche empirische Ergebnisse aus einem weiten Quellenbereich werden im Verhältnis zu diesen Prozessen präsentiert. Denudation allein, kann nicht tektonisch bedingte (isostatische) Oberflächenhebungen hervorrufen, die in der richtigen Größenordnung liegen, wie sie auch theoretisch ermittelt wurden. Es wird in Anlehnung an Ahnert ein Fall geschaffen, in der eine einfach lineare Beziehung (obgleich mit vielen Streuungen) zwischen der Denudationsrate und dem durchschnittlichen Abflußbeckenrelief für große Becken vorliegt. Einige neue Ermittlungen der Denudationszeitkonstanten wurden vernachlässigt, um tektonische und isostatische Begriffe einzufügen, welche sich der Verringerung des Reliefs durch Denudation widersetzen. Die Anwendung des Verbreitungstransportmodells zum Bestimmen der Sedimentationsrate sind streng begrenzt durch die ihm innewohnende Eindimensionalität, und der Vernachlässigung der Schwebe- und Schwämmfrachtbeteiligung. Bekkenfüllungssequenzen können benutzt werden um vergangene Sedimenttransferkoeffizienten aus dem Hinterland festzulegen; aber es treten auch Probleme bei der Verteilung der verschiedenen Hinterlandeinträge auf, die bei einem realen dreidimensionalen Becken vorhanden sind. Sedimenteinträge in kleineren Halbgräben und Growth-fold Becken müssen die Größe des Abflußbeckens widerspiegeln, sowie die komplexen lokalen Steuerungen auf die Sedimenteinträge. Beispiele von Dehnungsbecken aus dem Westen der USA und Griechenlands werden angesprochen. Die Länge des tektonischen Reliefs in verkippten Blöcken und Growth-Folds wird die Fläche des entwickelten Abflußbeckens kontrollieren (durch die fraktale Form des Gesetzes von Hack), und daher die Ablagerungsmenge von Sedimentbecken in der Nähe von tektonischen Hochlagen.

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Résumé L'érosion et les mouvements crustaux verticaux sont liés par l'équation isostatique de conservation de la masse lithosphérique. Des résultats empiriques récents provenant d'un large éventail de sources sont présentés en relation avec ces processus. L'érosion seule peut être la cause d'une montée non tectonique (isostatique) dont l'ampleur est prévue exactement par la théorie. Un cas est présenté, d'après Ahnert, qui montre, pour de grands bassins, une relation linéaire simple (mais avec une forte dispersion des points) entre le taux de dénudation et le relief moyen de l'aire de drainage. Certaines déterminations récentes des constantes de temps de dénudation ont omis de tenir compte des termes tectonique et isostatique qui s'opposent à la destruction du relief par érosion. L'utilisation de modèles de transport diffus en vue de déterminer le taux d'accumulation des sédiments est sévèrement limitée par le caractère unidimensionnel de tels modèles et par le fait qu'il ne tiennent pas compte de la fraction en suspension. Les séquences de comblement d'un bassin sédimentaire peuvent être utilisées pour déterminer les anciens cfficients de transfert à partir de l'hinterland; mais des difficultés surgissent à propos de la répartition des différents flux en provenance de l'hinterland dans le cas réel d'un bassin à 3 dimensions. Les apports sédimentaires dans les bassins de demi-graben et de »growth-fold« doivent traduire la grandeur des aires de drainage et les facteurs locaux complexes qui régissent ces apports. Des exemples sont présentés, relatifs à des bassins d'extension de l'ouest des USA et de Grèce. La »longueur« des reliefs tectoniques en relation avec les blocs basculés et les »growth-folds« déterminent, par la forme fractale de la loi de Hack, la surface des aires de drainage ainsi engendrées et, en conséquence, l'importance des dépôts dans les bassins sédimentaires voisins des reliefs tectoniques.

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