Promoting planetary science

Mike Hapgood summarizes the RAS's position on planetary sciences in the UK, a subject that delivers world-class results, but needs focused support in order to continue to thrive.     

Setting nutrient thresholds to support an ecological assessment based on nutrient enrichment, potential primary production and undesirable disturbance

The EU Water Framework Directive recognises that ecological status is supported by the prevailing physico-chemical conditions in each water body. This paper describes an approach to providing guidance on setting thresholds for nutrients taking account of the biological response to nutrient enrichment evident in different types of water. Indices of pressure, state and impact are used to achieve a robust nutrient (nitrogen) threshold by considering each individual index relative to a defined standard, scale or threshold. These indices include winter nitrogen concentrations relative to a predetermined reference value; the potential of the waterbody to support phytoplankton growth (estimated as primary production); and detection of an undesirable disturbance (measured as dissolved oxygen). Proposed reference values are based on a combination of historical records, offshore (limited human influence) nutrient concentrations, literature values and modelled data. Statistical confidence is based on a number of attributes, including distance of confidence limits away from a reference threshold and how well the model is populated with real data. This evidence based approach ensures that nutrient thresholds are based on knowledge of real and measurable biological responses in transitional and coastal waters.     

Space exploration and the RAS

Mike Hapgood and Ian Crawford assess the relevance of the BNSC UKSEWG Report for the Royal Astronomical Society.     

Ionospheric correction of space radar data

Radar is a critical tool for maintaining knowledge of the many objects in low Earth orbit and thus for maintaining confidence that societies around the world are secure against a variety of space-based threats. It is therefore important to raise awareness that LEO objects are embedded in the envelope of relatively dense plasma that co-rotates with the Earth (ionosphere-plasmasphere system) and thus accurate tracking must correct for the group delay and refraction caused by that system. This paper seeks to promote that awareness by reviewing those effects and high-lighting key issues: the need to customise correction to the altitude of the tracked object and prevailing space weather conditions, that ionospheric correction may be particularly important as an object approaches reentry. The paper outlines research approaches that should lead to better techniques for ionospheric correction and shows how these might be pursued in the context of the EURIPOS initiative.     

Water Table Uncertainties due to Uncertainties in Structure and Properties of an Unconfined Aquifer

We consider two sources of geology‐related uncertainty in making predictions of the steady‐state water table elevation for an unconfined aquifer. That is the uncertainty in the depth to base of the aquifer and in the hydraulic conductivity distribution within the aquifer. Stochastic approaches to hydrological modeling commonly use geostatistical techniques to account for hydraulic conductivity uncertainty within the aquifer. In the absence of well data allowing derivation of a relationship between geophysical and hydrological parameters, the use of geophysical data is often limited to constraining the structural boundaries. If we recover the base of an unconfined aquifer from an analysis of geophysical data, then the associated uncertainties are a consequence of the geophysical inversion process. In this study, we illustrate this by quantifying water table uncertainties for the unconfined aquifer formed by the paleochannel network around the Kintyre Uranium deposit in Western Australia. The focus of the Bayesian parametric bootstrap approach employed for the inversion of the available airborne electromagnetic data is the recovery of the base of the paleochannel network and the associated uncertainties. This allows us to then quantify the associated influences on the water table in a conceptualized groundwater usage scenario and compare the resulting uncertainties with uncertainties due to an uncertain hydraulic conductivity distribution within the aquifer. Our modeling shows that neither uncertainties in the depth to the base of the aquifer nor hydraulic conductivity uncertainties alone can capture the patterns of uncertainty in the water table that emerge when the two are combined.     

Offshore experiments on styrene spillage in marine waters for risk assessment

Within the context of risk evaluation of chemical spillages into the marine environment, this paper reports on an offshore experiment to study the behaviour of styrene spilled into sea under natural conditions and discusses theoretical approaches. Floating structures were used to enclose the spillage and the gaseous cloud formation, and dissolution processes were in situ monitored. The identification of spill risks for man and marine environment through GESAMP's hazard profile is described for styrene: Styrene is rated as a chemical with a significant health hazard that will float but also evaporate. However, monitoring of the water column in the experiments showed that the concentration of styrene in water during the first hour represents 50% of the product spilled. For the potentially exposed public, the GESAMP hazard rating recommends the closure of beaches and evacuation. The risk assessment developed from experimental data confirms this safety advice.     

Energetic Charged Particles Above Thunderclouds

The French government has committed to launch the satellite TARANIS to study transient coupling processes between the Earth’s atmosphere and near-Earth space. The prime objective of TARANIS is to detect energetic charged particles and hard radiation emanating from thunderclouds. The British Nobel prize winner C.T.R. Wilson predicted lightning discharges from the top of thunderclouds into space almost a century ago. However, new experiments have only recently confirmed energetic discharge processes which transfer energy from the top of thunderclouds into the upper atmosphere and near-Earth space; they are now denoted as transient luminous events, terrestrial gamma-ray flashes and relativistic electron beams. This meeting report builds on the current state of scientific knowledge on the physics of plasmas in the laboratory and naturally occurring plasmas in the Earth’s atmosphere to propose areas of future research. The report specifically reflects presentations delivered by the members of a novel Franco-British collaboration during a meeting at the French Embassy in London held in November 2011. The scientific subjects of the report tackle ionization processes leading to electrical discharge processes, observations of transient luminous events, electromagnetic emissions, energetic charged particles and their impact on the Earth’s atmosphere. The importance of future research in this area for science and society, and towards spacecraft protection, is emphasized.     

Entanglement of New Zealand fur seals in man-made debris at Kaikoura, New Zealand

New Zealand fur seals in the Kaikoura region breed near a town with expanding tourist and fishing industries and commonly come ashore entangled in nets and plastic debris. However, the rate at which entanglement occurs was previously unknown. A decade of Department of Conservation seal callout data was analysed to determine the level of entanglement in the region and the most common debris type. Monitoring of adult female fur seals released from entanglement provided information on the potential for serious wounds to heal and survivorship of released individuals. Entanglement rates of pinnipeds in Kaikoura are some of the highest reported world-wide (average range: 0.6-2.8%) with green trawl net (42%), and plastic strapping tape (31%) together contributing the most to debris types. Nearly half of the reported entangled seals are successfully released (43%) and post-release monitoring shows that with appropriate intervention the chance of an individual surviving even with a significant entanglement wound is high. Our study demonstrates that while entanglement in the region is high, a successful intervention protocol may help reduce the potential for entanglement-related mortality in the region.