A 1951–80 global land precipitation climatology for the evaluation of general circulation models

Previous evaluations of model precipitation fields have suffered from two weaknesses; they have used only mean observed climatologies which have prevented an explicit evaluation of interannual variability, and they have generally failed to quantify the significance of differences between model and observed fields. To rectify these weaknesses, a global precipitation climatology is required which is designed with model evaluation in mind. This paper describes such a climatology representative of the period 1951–80. The climatology is based on historical gauge-precipitation measurements from over 2500 land-based station time series representing over 28% of the Earth's surface. It is necessarily biased towards terrestrial areas. The climatology (CRU5180) is derived from month-by-month gridbox precipitation estimates at 5° resolution. Although other global precipitation climatologies exist, this is the first one to have used a consistent reference period for each station, and to include the details of interannual variability. Fields of mean seasonal and annual precipitation and mean temporal variability are presented, and the variability of global-mean precipitation over 1951–80 assessed. The resulting mean monthly global precipitation fields are compared briefly with two other observed climatologies used for model evaluation, those prepared by Jaeger and Legates and Willmott. The global and hemispheric means, mean seasonal cycles, and spatial patterns of the three cimatologies are compared. Although based on a smaller set of stations than Legates and Willmott, the CRU5180 precipitation estimates agree closely with their uncorrected climatology.     

DMS and SO2 at Baring Head, New Zealand: Implications for the Yield of SO2 from DMS

Atmospheric dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and sulfur dioxide (SO₂) concentrations were measured at Baring Head, New Zealandduring February and March 2000. Anti-correlated DMS and SO₂ diurnalcycles, consistent with the photochemical production of SO₂ from DMS, were observed in clean southerly air off the ocean. The data is used to infer a yield of SO₂ from DMS oxidation. The estimated yields are highly dependent on assumptions about the DMS oxidation rate. Fitting the measured data in a photochemical box model using model-generated OH levels and the Hynes et al. (1986) DMS + OH rate constant suggests that theSO₂ yield is 50–100%, similar to current estimates for the tropical Pacific.However, the observed amplitude of the DMS diurnal cycle suggests that the oxidation rate is higher than that used by the model, and therefore, that theSO₂ yield is lower in the range of 20–40%.     

A three-tiered approach to participatory vulnerability assessment in the Solomon Islands

Greater recognition of the seriousness of global environmental change has led to an increase in research that assesses the vulnerability of households, communities and regions to changing environmental or economic conditions. So far, however, there has been relatively little attention given to how assessments can be conducted in ways that help build capacity for local communities to understand and find their own solutions to their problems. This paper reports on an approach that was designed and used to work with a local grass roots organization in the Solomon Islands to promote inclusivity and participation in decision-making and to build the capacity of the organization to reduce the vulnerability of communities to drivers of change. The process involved working collaboratively with the organization and training its members to conduct vulnerability assessments with communities using participatory and deliberative methods. To make best use of the learning opportunities provided by the research process, specific periods for formal reflection were incorporated for the three key stakeholders involved: the primary researchers; research assistants; and community members. Overall, the approach: (1) promoted learning about the current situation in Kahua and encouraged deeper analysis of problems; (2) built capacity for communities to manage the challenges they were facing; and (3) fostered local ownership and responsibility for problems and set precedents for future participation in decision-making. While the local organization and the communities it serves still face significant challenges, the research approach set the scene for greater local participation and effort to maintain and enhance livelihoods and wellbeing. The outcomes highlight the need for greater emphasis on embedding participatory approaches in vulnerability assessments for communities to benefit fully from the process.     

Predicted changes in fire weather suggest increases in lightning fire initiation and future area burned in the mixedwood boreal forest

Forecasting future fire activity as a function of climate change is a step towards understanding the future state of the western mixedwood boreal ecosystem. We developed five annual weather indices based on the Daily Severity Rating (DSR) of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System and estimated their relationship with annual, empirical counts of lightning fire initiation for 588 landscapes in the mixedwood boreal forest in central-eastern Alberta, Canada from data collected between 1983 and 2001 using zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. Two indices contributed to a parsimonious model of initiation; these were Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR), and DSR-sequence count. We used parameter estimates from this model to predict lightning fire initiation under weather conditions predicted in 1 × CO₂ (1975–1985), 2 × CO₂ (2040–2049) and 3 × CO₂ (2080–2089) conditions simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). We combined predicted initiation rates for these conditions with existing empirical estimates of the number of fire initiations that grow to be large fires (fire escapes) and the fire size distribution for the region, to predict the annual area burned by lightning-caused fires in each of the three climate conditions. We illustrated a 1.5-fold and 1.8-fold increase of lightning fire initiation by 2040–2049 and 2080–2089 relative to 1975–1985 conditions due to changes in fire weather predicted by the CRCM; these increases were calculated independent of changes in lightning activity. Our simulations suggested that weather-mediated increases in initiation frequency could correspond to a substantial increase in future area burned with 1.9-fold and 2.6-fold increases in area burned in 2040–2049 and 2080–2089 relative to 1975–1985 conditions, respectively. We did not include any biotic effects in these estimates, though future patterns of initiation and fire growth will be regulated not only by weather, but also by vegetation and fire management.     

Geomagnetic secular variation from recent lake sediments,ancient fireplaces and historical measurements in southeastern Australia

Compilations of historical observations, archaeomagnetic data from ancient fireplaces and palaemagetic results from short cores of sediment from lakes in southeastern Australia, particularly Lake Keilambete, provide a detailed record of the geomagnetic secular variation during the last 3000 years. The independent sets of data are in good agreement if the radiocarbon time scale for the lacustrine record is about 450 years too old. The error is attributed to systematic incorporation of ancient carbon into the lake floor sediments, mainly through erosion of sediment on the crater walls at times of low water level. A significant lag between deposition and the acquisition of stable magnetic remanence is ruled out. Inclination has been abnormally steep during the last 500 years but remained fairly close to the axial dipole field value prior to that. During the last 1000 years the predominant sense of looping of the magnetic vector corresponds to westward drift of the nondipole field. Secular variations on a time scale of ～ 100 years can be resolved by the lacustrine record.     

Joint parameter estimation from magnetic resonance and vertical electric soundings using a multi‐objective genetic algorithm

Magnetic resonance sounding (MRS) has increasingly become an important method in hydrogeophysics because it allows for estimations of essential hydraulic properties such as porosity and hydraulic conductivity. A resistivity model is required for magnetic resonance sounding modelling and inversion. Therefore, joint interpretation or inversion is favourable to reduce the ambiguities that arise in separate magnetic resonance sounding and vertical electrical sounding (VES) inversions. A new method is suggested for the joint inversion of magnetic resonance sounding and vertical electrical sounding data. A one‐dimensional blocky model with varying layer thicknesses is used for the subsurface discretization. Instead of conventional derivative‐based inversion schemes that are strongly dependent on initial models, a global multi‐objective optimization scheme (a genetic algorithm [GA] in this case) is preferred to examine a set of possible solutions in a predefined search space. Multi‐objective joint optimization avoids the domination of one objective over the other without applying a weighting scheme. The outcome is a group of non‐dominated optimal solutions referred to as the Pareto‐optimal set. Tests conducted using synthetic data show that the multi‐objective joint optimization approximates the joint model parameters within the experimental error level and illustrates the range of trade‐off solutions, which is useful for understanding the consistency and conflicts between two models and objectives. Overall, the Levenberg‐Marquardt inversion of field data measured during a survey on a North Sea island presents similar solutions. However, the multi‐objective genetic algorithm method presents an efficient method for exploring the search space by producing a set of non‐dominated solutions. Borehole data were used to provide a verification of the inversion outcomes and indicate that the suggested genetic algorithm method is complementary for derivative‐based inversions.     

Is rainfall intensity significant in the rainfall–runoff process within tropical rainforests of northeast Queensland? The Hewlett regression analyses revisited

Following the statistical analyses of long‐term rainfall‐runoff records from research basins in humid temperate latitudes, Hewlett and co‐workers extended the global challenge to disprove their findings that rainfall intensity was non‐significant. This paper responds to Hewlett's challenge as no preceding analyses have involved forested basins in a tropical cyclone‐prone area. Based on a 7 year rainfall‐runoff record, quickflow (QF), peak flow (QP) and quickflow response ratios (QRR) were regressed as dependent variables against rainfall parameters (intensity, P_i, amount, P), storm duration, D and antecedent flow, I. These data sets were categorised into total streamflow (Q) classes and stratified into three seasons, (monsoon, post‐monsoon and dry) for forested and cleared catchments. Where rainfall variable collinearity met acceptable levels, the addition of P_i to regression models including P, D, I contributed up to 9% and 66% of the respective variations in quickflow and peak flow. For the highest Q storm classes (monsoon), P_i alone accounted for up to 67% and 91% of the variation in Q_F and Q_P respectively and was the dominant influence on Q_P for all seasons. The very high rainfall intensities experienced in the monsoon season is a causal factor why these results differ from those of other research drainage basins. Surprisingly, P_i continued to have a significant influence on Q_F for dry season classes when less‐intense rainfall occurs. Further the results were similar for both catchments across all seasons. P was the dominant independent variable affecting Q_F above a threshold Q of 50 mm (monsoon), as rainfall contributes directly to saturation overland flow and return flow under saturated conditions. Further although QRR increased with increasing Q for each season, the regression results for that parameter were poor possibly due to the non‐linearity of the rainfall‐runoff relationship. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Guidelines on the use of structure-from-motion photogrammetry in geomorphic research

As a topographic modelling technique, structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry combines the utility of digital photogrammetry with a flexibility and ease of use derived from multi-view computer vision methods. In conjunction with the rapidly increasing availability of imagery, particularly from unmanned aerial vehicles, SfM photogrammetry represents a powerful tool for geomorphological research. However, to fully realize this potential, its application must be carefully underpinned by photogrammetric considerations, surveys should be reported in sufficient detail to be repeatable (if practical) and results appropriately assessed to understand fully the potential errors involved. To deliver these goals, robust survey and reporting must be supported through (i) using appropriate survey design, (ii) applying suitable statistics to identify systematic error (bias) and to estimate precision within results, and (iii) propagating uncertainty estimates into the final data products. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ultra‐rapid topographic surveying for complex environments: the hand‐held mobile laser scanner (HMLS)

Terrestrial laser scanning is the current technique of choice for acquiring high resolution topographic data at the site scale (i.e. over tens to hundreds of metres), for accurate volume measurements or process modelling. However, in regions of complex topography with multiple local horizons, restricted lines of sight significantly hinder use of such tripod‐based instruments by requiring multiple setups to achieve full coverage of the area. We demonstrate a novel hand‐held mobile laser scanning technique that offers particular promise for site‐scale topographic surveys of complex environments. To carry out a survey, the hand‐held mobile laser scanner (HMLS) is walked across a site, mapping around the surveyor continuously en route. We assess the accuracy of HMLS data by comparing survey results from an eroding coastal cliff site with those acquired by a state‐of‐the‐art terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) and also with the results of a photo‐survey, processed by structure from motion and multi‐view stereo (SfM‐MVS) algorithms. HMLS data are shown to have a root mean square (RMS) difference to the benchmark TLS data of 20 mm, not dissimilar to that of the SfM‐MVS survey (18 mm). The efficiency of the HMLS system in complex terrain is demonstrated by acquiring topographic data covering ~780 m² of salt‐marsh gullies, with a mean point spacing of 4.4 cm, in approximately six minutes. We estimate that HMLS surveying of gullies is approximately 40 times faster than using a TLS and six times faster than using SfM‐MVS. © 2013 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.