Biological and Molecular Geochemical Evidence for Dinoflagellate Ancestors in the Upper Sinian-Cambrian

Dinoflagellates are single celled organisms that reflect the ecological conditions in modern oceans and lakes. Their earliest undisputed fossil record suggests that dinoflagellates originated from the Middle Triassic (c. 240 Ma ago). However, the presence of molecular biomarkers (dinosterane, 4α-methyl-24-ethylcholestane and tria-romatic dinosteroids) in rock extracts and coccoid dinoflagellate fossils from the upper Sinian to Cambrian of the Tarim basin confirms the hypothesis that dinoflagellates have an ancient origin, and predate the oldest undisputed dinoflagellate fossils at least by 300 Ma, as early as the late Sinian-Cambrian.     

Participatory diagramming: deploying qualitative methods through an action research epistemology

Summary In the context of a pilot study on the role that gender relations play in the transmission of HIV in Zimbabwe, this paper explores participatory diagramming, an exciting qualitative research technique largely under-utilized by geographers. It argues for a deployment of the technique within an action research epistemology in order that it might facilitate the reflection and action of participants in praxis, not simply the production of nuanced multiple truths in text Such an approach offers geographers embedded in an audit-oriented academy one means to political engagement while at the same time generating rigorous, 'publishable outputs'.     

Predicted changes in fire weather suggest increases in lightning fire initiation and future area burned in the mixedwood boreal forest

Forecasting future fire activity as a function of climate change is a step towards understanding the future state of the western mixedwood boreal ecosystem. We developed five annual weather indices based on the Daily Severity Rating (DSR) of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System and estimated their relationship with annual, empirical counts of lightning fire initiation for 588 landscapes in the mixedwood boreal forest in central-eastern Alberta, Canada from data collected between 1983 and 2001 using zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. Two indices contributed to a parsimonious model of initiation; these were Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR), and DSR-sequence count. We used parameter estimates from this model to predict lightning fire initiation under weather conditions predicted in 1 × CO₂ (1975–1985), 2 × CO₂ (2040–2049) and 3 × CO₂ (2080–2089) conditions simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). We combined predicted initiation rates for these conditions with existing empirical estimates of the number of fire initiations that grow to be large fires (fire escapes) and the fire size distribution for the region, to predict the annual area burned by lightning-caused fires in each of the three climate conditions. We illustrated a 1.5-fold and 1.8-fold increase of lightning fire initiation by 2040–2049 and 2080–2089 relative to 1975–1985 conditions due to changes in fire weather predicted by the CRCM; these increases were calculated independent of changes in lightning activity. Our simulations suggested that weather-mediated increases in initiation frequency could correspond to a substantial increase in future area burned with 1.9-fold and 2.6-fold increases in area burned in 2040–2049 and 2080–2089 relative to 1975–1985 conditions, respectively. We did not include any biotic effects in these estimates, though future patterns of initiation and fire growth will be regulated not only by weather, but also by vegetation and fire management.     

‘Telling a different tale’: literary, historical and meteorological readings of a Norfolk heatwave

Articulated initially by physical scientists, the idea of anthropogenic global climate change has been subject to increasingly diverse examinations in recent years. The idea has been appropriated by economists, worked with by engineers and, more recently, scrutinised by social scientists and humanities scholars. Underlying these examinations are different, yet rarely exposed, presumptions about what kind of ??thing?? climate is: a physical abstraction, a statistical construct, an imaginative idea. If the ontological status of climate is rarely made explicit it becomes difficult to know whether the different epistemologies used to reveal climates ?? and their changing properties ?? are appropriate. This study offers one way in which the different worlds inhabited by the idea of climate may be revealed. It does so by examining a heatwave: a powerful meteorological phenomenon one would think and one which scientific accounts of climate change tell us will become more frequent in the future. The heatwave in question occurred in July 1900 in the county of Norfolk, England. This heatwave inhabits three very different worlds: the imaginative world of L P Hartley in his novel The Go Between; the historical world of late Victorian Norfolk; and the digital world of the climate sciences. The traces of the heatwave left in these different worlds are varied and access to them is uneven. Constructing an adequate interpretation of this singular climatic event and its meaning is challenging. The study suggests that grasping the idea of climate may be harder than we think. Climates may be ineffable. Yet the approach to the study of climate illustrated here opens up new ways of thinking about the meaning and significance of climate change.     

Does risk communication really decrease cooperation in climate change mitigation?

Effective communication of risks involved in the climate change discussion is crucial and despite ambitious protection policies, the possibility of irreversible consequences actually occurring can only be diminished but never ruled out completely. We present a laboratory experiment that studies how residual risk of failure of climate change policies affects willingness to contribute to such policies. Despite prevailing views on people’s risk aversion, we found that contributions were higher at least in the final part of treatments including a residual risk. We interpret this as the product of a psychological process where residual risk puts participants into an ”alarm mode,” keeping their contributions high. We discuss the broad practical implications this might have on the real-world communication of climate change.     

Fine-Scale Measurements Of Turbulence In The Lower Troposphere: An Intercomparison Between A Kite- And Balloon-Borne, And A Helicopter-Borne Measurement System

Two state-of-the-art, high-resolution, in situ turbulence measurement systems, which can be deployed at altitudes well above the atmospheric surface layer, are compared: the Tethered Lifting System (TLS) of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)at the University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, and the helicopter-borneturbulence measurement system HELIPOD of the Technical UniversityBraunschweig, Germany, and the University of Hanover, Germany. Whilethe CIRES TLS is a fixed-point platform, HELIPOD is a moving platform.On the basis of data taken with the two systems in separate field campaigns,the system capabilities are quantified and discussed. Criteria for instrumentalrequirements are presented. It is shown that both the CIRES TLS and HELIPODare well suited for measuring fine-scale turbulence that is characterized by very small temperature structure parameters 10⁶ K² m^–2/3 and smaller) and very small energy dissipation rates (10^-7 m² s^-3 and smaller). The authors are not aware of any other turbulence measurement systems that have similar capabilities and can be deployed at altitudes of up to several kilometres. The HELIPOD is ideal for high-resolution horizontal measurements while the TLS is ideal for high-resolution vertical measurements using multiple sensors attached to a suspended line.     

Growth and linkage of a segmented normal fault zone; the Late Jurassic Murchison–Statfjord North Fault, northern North Sea

The structure of the 25 km long northeastern portion of the Murchison–Statfjord North Fault Zone and adjacent syn-rift stratigraphy are integrated to reconstruct the temporal and spatial evolution during c. 30.5 myr of Late Jurassic, North Sea rifting. Based on a structural analysis (D–d data) alone, approximately 14 precursor fault strands are identified. Incorporation of stratigraphic data shows that only six of these strands were important in controlling stratal architecture and distribution. Three main stages in the evolution of the fault zone are recorded in the syn-rift stratigraphy and are biostratigraphically constrained. These are: (1) following initiation of rifting, six isolated fault strands developed (each <4 km long) and controlled the stratigraphy for c. 13 myr; (2) the isolated strands linked along-strike forming two >9 km long fault segments separated by a 2 km wide relay ramp, that controlled the stratigraphy for at least the following c. 10.5 myr; and (3) the two fault segments hard-linked forming a single, continuous fault trace during the final c. 7 myr of rifting. The results of this study reveal the necessity to adopt an integrated structural and stratigraphic approach when reconstructing the evolution of normal fault zones. The results may also help to further constrain models of fault evolution.     

Mean flux estimation and cospectra of airborne carbon dioxide and water vapour eddy flux measurements in the planetary surface layer

CO₂ and H₂O eddy-flux measurements derived from airborne vertical wind and concentration data are examined to determine the accuracy of the eddy-flux estimate in moderately unstable conditions within the surface layer. Integral scale estimation is used to determine the minimum length of a sample required to achieve a given accuracy. Cospectral analysis is used to examine the scales responsible for the transport of water vapour and carbon dioxide in the surface layer. Cospectra are found to broaden as the sampling altitude increases, a well known result. At low altitudes, the cospectrum is found to become negative for large scales. A significant fraction of the flux is carried by this range of scales, which suggests that scales larger than the boundary-layer height may play an important role in the transport at low altitudes.     

Changes in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence ecosystem estimated by inverse modelling: Evidence of a fishery-induced regime shift?

Mass-balance models have been constructed using inverse methodology for the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence for the mid-1980s, the mid-1990s, and the early 2000s to describe ecosystem structure, trophic group interactions, and the effects of fishing and predation on the ecosystem for each time period. Our analyses indicate that the ecosystem structure shifted dramatically from one previously dominated by demersal (cod, redfish) and small-bodied forage (e.g., capelin, mackerel, herring, shrimp) species to one now dominated by small-bodied forage species. Overfishing removed a functional group in the late 1980s, large piscivorous fish (primarily cod and redfish), which has not recovered 14 years after the cessation of heavy fishing. This has left only marine mammals as top predators during the mid-1990s, and marine mammals and small Greenland halibut during the early 2000s. Predation by marine mammals on fish increased from the mid-1980s to the early 2000s while predation by large fish on fish decreased. Capelin and shrimp, the main prey in each period, showed an increase in biomass over the three periods. A switch in the main predators of capelin from cod to marine mammals occurred, while Greenland halibut progressively replaced cod as shrimp predators. Overfishing influenced community structure directly through preferential removal of larger-bodied fishes and indirectly through predation release because larger-bodied fishes exerted top-down control upon other community species or competed with other species for the same prey. Our modelling estimates showed that a change in predation structure or flows at the top of the trophic system led to changes in predation at all lower trophic levels in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence. These changes represent a case of fishery-induced regime shift.