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31.
Michelle T. H. van Vliet Stephen Blenkinsop Aidan Burton Colin Harpham Hans Peter Broers Hayley J. Fowler 《Climatic change》2012,111(2):249-277
Regional or local scale hydrological impact studies require high resolution climate change scenarios which should incorporate
some assessment of uncertainties in future climate projections. This paper describes a method used to produce a multi-model
ensemble of multivariate weather simulations including spatial–temporal rainfall scenarios and single-site temperature and
potential evapotranspiration scenarios for hydrological impact assessment in the Dommel catchment (1,350 km2) in The Netherlands and Belgium. A multi-site stochastic rainfall model combined with a rainfall conditioned weather generator
have been used for the first time with the change factor approach to downscale projections of change derived from eight Regional
Climate Model (RCM) experiments for the SRES A2 emission scenario for the period 2071–2100. For winter, all downscaled scenarios
show an increase in mean daily precipitation (catchment average change of +9% to +40%) and typically an increase in the proportion
of wet days, while for summer a decrease in mean daily precipitation (−16% to −57%) and proportion of wet days is projected.
The range of projected mean temperature is 7.7°C to 9.1°C for winter and 19.9°C to 23.3°C for summer, relative to means for
the control period (1961–1990) of 3.8°C and 16.8°C, respectively. Mean annual potential evapotranspiration is projected to
increase by between +17% and +36%. The magnitude and seasonal distribution of changes in the downscaled climate change projections
are strongly influenced by the General Circulation Model (GCM) providing boundary conditions for the RCM experiments. Therefore,
a multi-model ensemble of climate change scenarios based on different RCMs and GCMs provides more robust estimates of precipitation,
temperature and evapotranspiration for hydrological impact assessments, at both regional and local scale. 相似文献
32.
Gabriel Magnan loise Le Stum‐Boivin Michelle Garneau Pierre Grondin Nicole Fenton Yves Bergeron 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2019,48(1):131-146
Forested peatlands are widespread in boreal regions of Canada, and these ecosystems, which are major terrestrial carbon sinks, are undergoing significant transformations linked to climate change, fires and human activities. This study targets millennial‐scale vegetation dynamics and related hydrological variability in forested peatlands of the Clay Belt south of James Bay, eastern Canada, using palaeoecological data. Changes in peatland vegetation communities were reconstructed using plant macrofossil analyses, and variations in water‐table depths were inferred using testate amoeba analyses. High‐resolution analyses of macroscopic charcoal >0.5 mm were used to reconstruct local fire history. Our data showed two successional pathways towards the development of present‐day forested peatlands influenced by autogenic processes such as vertical peat growth and related drying, and allogenic factors such as the occurrence of local fires. The oldest documented peatland initiated in a wet rich fen around 8000 cal. a BP shortly after land emergence and transformed into a drier forested bog rapidly after peat inception that persisted over millennia. In the second site, peat started to accumulate from ~5200 cal. a BP over a mesic coniferous forest that shifted into a wet forested peatland following a fire that partially consumed the organic layer ~4600 cal. a BP. The charcoal records show that fires rarely occurred in these peatlands, but they have favoured the process of forest paludification and influenced successional trajectories over millennia. The macrofossil data suggest that Picea mariana (black spruce) persisted on the peatlands throughout their development, although there were periods of more open canopy due to local fires in some cases. This study brings new understanding on the natural variability of boreal forested peatlands which may help predict their response to future changes in climate, fire regimes and anthropogenic disturbances. 相似文献
33.
Sophie GODIN-BEEKMANN Irina PETROPAVLOSKIKH Stefan REIS Paul NEWMAN Wolfgang STEINBRECHT Markus REX Michelle L. SANTEE Richard S. ECKMAN Xiangdong ZHENG Matthew B. TULLY David S. STEVENSON Paul YOUNG John PYLE Mark WEBER Johanna TAMMINEN Gina MILLS Alkis F. BAIS Clare HEAVISIDE Christos ZEREFOS 《大气科学进展》2017,34(3):283-288
<正>1.Overview The 2016 Quadrennial Ozone Symposium(QOS-2016)was held on 4–9 September 2016 in Edinburgh,UK.The Symposium was organized by the International Ozone Commission(IO3C),the NERC Centre for EcologyHydrology and the University of Edinburgh,and was co-sponsored by the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics,the International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric 相似文献
34.
Michelle Curry John Hanesiak Scott Kehler David M. L. Sills Neil M. Taylor 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2017,162(1):143-169
The effects on the convective boundary layer (CBL) of shading due to shallow cumulus clouds are investigated. The main question is to see whether clouds are able to produce secondary circulations by shading of the surface (dynamic heterogeneities) and how these dynamic heterogeneities interact with static heterogeneities in terms of the production of secondary circulations. Also the effects of cloud shadows on cloud-field characteristics are analyzed. The effects are studied using large-eddy simulations of a cloud-topped CBL with an idealized surface. Over a homogeneous surface, shadows trigger secondary circulations with different strengths depending on the solar zenith angle \(\vartheta \), with large \(\vartheta \) favouring the development of secondary circulations. Over a static heterogeneous surface with a simple striped pattern, the strength of secondary circulations is effectively reduced by dynamic heterogeneities at small \(\vartheta \). At large \(\vartheta \), however, the effect on secondary circulations depends on the orientation of the striped static heterogeneities to the shadow-casting direction of the clouds. The influence of shadows is only small if they are cast perpendicular to the striped heterogeneity, but if stripes and the shadow-casting direction are parallel, secondary circulations are reduced in strength also for large \(\vartheta \). Shadow effects on the cloud-field characteristics vary with \(\vartheta \) as well. The results show that small \(\vartheta \) favours the development of small clouds with a reduced lifetime while large \(\vartheta \) promotes the development of larger clouds with an extended lifetime compared to non-shading clouds. 相似文献
35.
Blossom N. Nzeribe Wen Li Michelle Crimi Guangming Yao Craig E. Divine Jeff McDonough Jack Wang 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》2020,40(3):30-41
This study is focused on a passive treatment system known as the horizontal reactive treatment well (HRX Well®) installed parallel to groundwater flow, which operates on the principle of flow focusing that results from the hydraulic conductivity (K) ratio of the well and aquifer media. Passive flow and capture in the HRX Well are described by simplified equations adapted from Darcy's Law. A field pilot-scale study (PSS) and numerical simulations using a finite element method (FEM) were conducted to verify the HRX Well concept and test the validity of the HRX Well-simplified equations. The hydraulic performance results from both studies were observed to be within a close agreement to the simplified equations and their hydraulic capture width approximately five times greater than the well diameter (0.20 m). Key parameters affecting capture included the aquifer thickness, well diameter, and permeability ratio of the HRX Well treatment media and aquifer material. During pilot testing, the HRX Well captured 39% of flow while representing 0.5% of the test pit cross-sectional volume, indicating that the well captures a substantial amount of surrounding groundwater. While uncertainty in the aquifer and well properties (porosity, K, well losses), including the effects of boundary conditions, may have caused minor differences in the results, data from this study indicate that the simplified equations are valid for the conceptual design of a field study. A full-scale HRX Well was installed at Site SS003 at Vanderberg Air Force Base, California, in July/August 2018 based on outcomes from this study. 相似文献
36.
Craig E. Divine Jesse Wright Michelle Crimi J.F. Devlin Michael Lubrecht Jack Wang Jeff McDonough Michael Kladias Jesse Hinkle Allison Cormican Trevor Osorno Blossom N. Nzeribe Fiona Laramay Daniel Ombalski Kathleen Gerber Hunter Anderson 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》2020,40(3):42-54
The horizontal reactive media treatment well (HRX Well®) uses directionally drilled horizontal wells filled with a treatment media to induce flow-focusing behavior created by the well-to-aquifer permeability contrast to passively capture proportionally large volumes of groundwater. Groundwater is treated in situ as it flows through the HRX Well and downgradient portions of the aquifer are cleaned via elution as these zones are flushed with clean water discharging from the HRX Well. The HRX Well concept is particularly well suited for sites where long-term mass discharge control is a primary performance objective. This concept is appropriate for recalcitrant and difficult-to-treat constituents, including chlorinated solvents, per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), 1,4-dioxane, and metals. A full-scale HRX Well was installed and operated to treat trichloroethene (TCE) with zero valent iron (ZVI). The model-predicted enhanced flow through the HRX Well (compared to the flow in and equivalent cross-sectional area orthogonal to flow in the natural formation before HRX Well installation) and treatment zone width was consistent with flows and widths estimated independently by point velocity probe (PVP) testing, HRX Well tracer testing, and observed treatment in downgradient monitoring wells. The actual average capture zone width was estimated to be between 45 and 69 feet. Total TCE mass discharge reduction was maintained through the duration of the performance monitoring period and exceeded 99.99% (%). Decreases in TCE concentrations were observed at all four downgradient monitoring wells within the treatment zone (ranging from 50 to 74% at day 436), and the first arrival of treated water was consistent with model predictions. The field demonstration confirmed the HRX Well technology is best suited for long-term mass discharge control, can be installed under active infrastructure, requires limited ongoing operation and maintenance, and has low life cycle energy and water requirements. 相似文献
37.
Quantifying the rate and depth dependence of bioturbation based on optically‐stimulated luminescence (OSL) dates and meteoric 10Be
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Michelle O. Johnson Simon M. Mudd Brad Pillans Nigel A. Spooner L. Keith Fifield Mike J. Kirkby Manuel Gloor 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2014,39(9):1188-1196
Both the rate and the vertical distribution of soil disturbance modify soil properties such as porosity, particle size, chemical composition and age structure; all of which play an important role in a soil's biogeochemical functioning. Whereas rates of mixing have been previously quantified, the nature of bioturbation's depth dependence remains poorly constrained. Here we constrain, for the first time, the relationship between mixing rate and depth in a bioturbated soil in northeast Queensland, Australia using a novel method combining OSL (optically‐stimulated luminescence) ages and meteoric beryllium‐10 (10Be) inventories. We find that the best fit mixing rate decreases non‐linearly with increasing soil depth in this soil and the characteristic length scale of 0.28 m over which the mixing coefficient decays is comparable to reported rooting depth coefficients. In addition we show that estimates of surface mixing rates from OSL data are highly dependent on erosion rate and that erosion rate must be constrained if accurate mixing rates are to be quantified. We calculate surface diffusion‐like mixing coefficients of 1.8 × 10?4 and 2.1 × 10?4 m2 yr?1 for the studied soil for two different estimates of soil erosion. © 2014 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. 相似文献
38.
The calcarean sponge Paraleucilla magna is classified as being an invasive species on the Mediterranean Sea, where it causes economic damages to mollusc farms. On the Brazilian coast, this species is considered to be cryptogenic, and information on its ecology is scarce. The same is true for Sycettusa hastifera, another calcarean sponge with a worldwide distribution. Data on the ecology of these species could help in elucidating their potential to become a threat if they are found to be exotic species in Brazil. In the present work, we studied habitat selection, growth and mortality of early juveniles of P. magna and habitat selection of S. hastifera in a Marine Reserve from Southeastern Brazil, where these species are abundant in the benthic community. Granite plates were used for habitat selection analysis, varying in substrate inclination (vertical and horizontal) and exposure to light and hydrodynamism (exposed and sheltered). To analyse the growth and mortality rates, sponges were mapped and then measured once a week for 10 weeks. If a monitored sponge was not found in the following week, it was considered to be dead. Our results showed that, although P. magna and S. hastifera are capable of inhabiting substrates exposed to different environmental conditions, they showed habitat preferences. Growth of the juveniles of P. magna seemed not to have damaged any neighbouring invertebrates. The mortality of juveniles of this species was higher during the first 2 weeks of life but its causes could not be elucidated. 相似文献
39.
Addressing social and economic considerations is crucial to the success of Marine Protected Area (MPA) planning and management. Ineffective social assessment can alienate local communities and undermine the success of existing and future MPAs. It is rare to critique the success of methods used currently to incorporate social and economic considerations into MPA planning. Three Australian MPA planning processes covering three states and incorporating federal and state jurisdictions are reviewed in order to determine how potential social impacts were assessed and considered. These case studies indicate that Social Impact Assessment (SIA) is under-developed in Australian MPA planning. Assessments rely heavily on public participation and economic modelling as surrogates for dedicated SIA and are followed commonly by attitudinal surveys to gauge public opinion on the MPA after its establishment. The emergence of issues around public perception of the value of MPAs indicates the failure of some of these proposals to adequately consider social factors in planning and management. This perception may have potential implications for the long term success of individual MPAs. It may also compromise Australia's ability to meet international commitments for MPA targets to gazette at least 10% of all its marine habitats as MPAs. Indeed, this is demonstrated in two of the three case studies where social and economic arguments against MPAs have been used to delay or block the future expansion of the MPA network. 相似文献
40.
Juergen Schieber David Bish Max Coleman Mark Reed Elisabeth M. Hausrath John Cosgrove Sanjeev Gupta Michelle E. Minitti Kenneth S. Edgett Mike Malin 《Sedimentology》2017,64(2):311-358
The Sheepbed mudstone forms the base of the strata examined by the Curiosity rover in Gale Crater on Mars, and is the first bona fide mudstone known on another planet. From images and associated data, this contribution proposes a holistic interpretation of depositional regime, diagenesis and burial history. A lake basin probably received sediment pulses from alluvial fans. Bed cross‐sections show millimetre to centimetre‐scale layering due to distal pulses of fluvial sediment injections (fine‐grained hyperpycnites), fall‐out from river plumes, and some aeolian supply. Diagenetic features include mineralized synaeresis cracks and millimetre‐scale nodules, as well as stratiform cementation. Clay minerals were initially considered due to in situ alteration, but bulk rock chemistry and mineralogy suggests that sediments were derived from variably weathered source rocks that probably contained pre‐existing clay minerals. X‐ray diffraction analyses show contrasting clay mineralogy in closely spaced samples, consistent with at least partial detrital supply of clay minerals. A significant (ca 30 wt%) amorphous component is consistent with little post‐depositional alteration. Theoretical modelling of diagenetic reactions, as well as kinetic considerations, suggest that the bulk of diagenetic clay mineral formation occurred comparatively late in diagenesis. Diagenetic features (synaeresis cracks and nodules) were previously thought to reflect early diagenetic gas formation, but an alternative scenario of synaeresis crack formation via fabric collapse of flocculated clays appears more likely. The observed diagenetic features, such as solid nodules, hollow nodules, matrix cement and ‘raised ridges’ (synaeresis cracks) can be explained with progressive alteration of olivine/glass in conjunction with centrifugal and counter diffusion of reactive species. Anhydrite‐filled fractures in the Sheepbed mudstone occurred late in diagenesis when fluid pressures built up to exceed lithostatic pressure. Generating fluid overpressure by burial to facilitate hydraulic fracturing suggests a burial depth of at least 1000 m for the underlying strata that supplied these fluids. 相似文献