Automatic Recognition of Landslides Based on Neural Network Analysis of Seismic Signals: An Application to the Monitoring of Stromboli Volcano (Southern Italy)

In the last 9 years, the amount and the quality of geophysical and volcanological observations of Stromboli's' activity have undergone a marked increase. This new information highlighted that the landslides on the Sciara del Fuoco flank are tightly linked to the volcanic activity. Actually, at the beginning of the December 28, 2002, effusive eruption, the seismic monitoring network was less dense than now, and therefore it is not known if there was an increase in the landslide rate before the eruption. Despite this, it is known that a big landslide occurred 2 days after the beginning of the eruption which caused a tsunami (December 30, 2002). More recently, the effusive eruption in February 2007 was preceded by an increase in landslides on the Sciara del Fuoco flank, which were recorded by the seismological monitoring system that had been improved after the 2002–2003 crisis. These episodes led us to believe that monitoring the Sciara del Fuoco flank instability is an important topic, and that landslides might be significant short-term precursors of effusive eruptions at the Stromboli volcano. To automatically detect landslide signals, we have developed a specialized neural algorithm. This can distinguish between landslides and the other types of seismic signals usually recorded at the Stromboli volcano (i.e., explosion quakes and volcanic tremor). The discrimination results show an average performance of 98.67 %. According to the experience of the crisis of 2007, to identify changes that can be considered as precursors of effusive eruptions, we set up an automatic decision-making method based on the neural network responses. This method can operate on a continuous data stream. It calculates a landslide percentage index (LPI) that depends on the number of records that are classified by the net as landslides over a given time interval. We tested the method on February 27, 2007, including the beginning of the effusive phase. The index showed an increase as early as at 09:00 UTC on that day and reached its maximum value (100 %) at 12:00, about 40 min before the onset of the eruption. After the beginning of the effusive phase, the index remains high due to the blocks that roll down along the slope from the front of the lava flow. On the basis of these tests, we propose a decision-making method that is able to recognize a trend in the LPI similar to that of 2007 eruption, allowing the identification of precursors of effusive phases at the Stromboli volcano.     

Earthquake-reactivated landslide scenarios in Southern Italy based on spectral-matching input analysis

The Tyrrhenian portion of the Calabria region (southern Italy) is particularly prone to landslides as a consequence of intense morphodynamic processes. These processes affect the slopes that are composed of highly jointed metamorphic rock masses. Moreover, the frequent intense rainfalls and the up to Mw 7.0 regional earthquakes represent the main landslide triggering factors. An area of approximately $45\,\hbox {km}^{2}$ was selected as a test site in the context of a regional project aimed at reconstructing possible earthquake-reactivated landslide scenarios (i.e., referred to already existing landslide masses). An inventory map led to the identification of 175 landslides, including rock slides, earth slides and rock falls. Ground-motion scenarios based on a spectral-matching method were derived to evaluate the expected earthquake-induced displacements of the existing landslides. Naturally recorded acceleration time histories were selected from international ground-motion databases based on a similarity index and considered representative of the seismological features of the considered seismic sources (i.e., epicentral distance, magnitude, focal mechanism). Spectral attenuation was considered, according to well-established attenuation laws, to define the expected response spectrum at the outcropping bedrock corresponding to each existing landslide. Subsequently, the selected natural records were modified to guarantee spectral matching with the attenuated response spectra at each landslide site. The derived time histories were used to compute co-seismic displacements via the classic Newmark’s sliding-block method. Different scenarios of co-seismic landslide displacements or collapse were generated for different pore-water pressure hypotheses. The strongest $\hbox {Mw}>6$ seismic scenario (Messina Straits seismogenic source) indicated an exceedance probability of earthquake-induced co-seismic landslide collapse varying from 20 to 55 % with the increasing severity of the pore-water pressures. This probability corresponds to a percentage of co-seismic landslide displacements up to 40 % of the total inventoried landslides. The exceedance probability indicated that co-seismic landslide collapse drops below 20 % for $\hbox {Mw}<6$ seismic scenarios. In contrast, if a uniform probability is assumed for the seismic action occurrence, i.e., return periods of 475 and 2,475 years, the total percentage of landslide co-seismic displacements could be as high as 70 and 90 %, respectively, for the considered pore-water pressures.     

Coral- and oyster-microbialite patch reefs in the aftermath of the Triassic–Jurassic biotic crisis (Sinemurian,Southeast France)

The end of the Triassic and the Early Jurassic are intervals characterised by profound biotic and environmental changes, accompanied by dramatic decreases in marine fauna diversity. Corals were strongly affected and assemblages underwent a severe reduction; compared with those of the Upper Triassic, the Early Jurassic is traditionally defined as holding a “reef gap”. A Sinemurian coral-microbialites patch reef, located in southern France in the Hérault department (Le Perthus locality), is here described. This bioconstruction developed in a shallow mixed siliciclastic-carbonate inner ramp setting. The reef volume is composed of up to 70% of an intercoral facies mostly microbialites, with subordinated sediments (approximately 20–30% of the intercoral facies). Therefore, the patch reef can be defined as a coral-microbialite bioconstruction, in which microbialites were the main framebuilders. The coral assemblage has low diversity and is dominated by massive to branching colonies of Chondrocoenia clavellata. This highlights the reef diversity after the T/J boundary crisis. The Le Perthus patch reef could have acted as an edge for the dominant currents and probably induced reductions in hydrodynamic energy and sedimentation on one of its sides. Consequently, it could have triggered the growth of small lateral bioconstructions, composed of oysters and microbialites, uniquely on one of its sides. The evolution of the facies shows that the Le Perthus patch reef grew in a shallowing-upward setting accompanied by an increase in siliciclastic inputs. The rate of bioerosion and the faunal assemblage suggest that the bioconstructions could have been developed in a mesotrophic environment.     

Oxygen isotope fractionation between apatite-bound carbonate and water determined from controlled experiments with synthetic apatites precipitated at 10-37 °C

The oxygen isotope fractionation between the structural carbonate of inorganically precipitated hydroxyapatite (HAP) and water was determined in the range 10-37 °C. Values of 1000 ln α() are linearly correlated with inverse temperature (K) according to the following equation: 1000 ln α() = 25.19 (±0.53)·T⁻¹ − 56.47 (±1.81) (R² = 0.998). This fractionation equation has a slightly steeper slope than those already established between calcite and water ( [O’Neil et al., 1969] and [Kim and O’Neil, 1997]) even though measured fractionations are of comparable amplitude in the temperature range of these experimental studies. It is consequently observed that the oxygen isotope fractionation between apatite carbonate and phosphate increases from about 7.5‰ up to 9.1‰ with decreasing temperature from 37 °C to 10 °C. A compilation of δ¹⁸O values of both phosphate and carbonate from modern mammal teeth and bones confirms that both variables are linearly correlated, despite a significant scattering up to 3.5‰, with a slope close to 1 and an intercept corresponding to a 1000 ln α() value of 8.1‰. This apparent fractionation factor is slightly higher or close to the fractionation factor expected to be in the range 7-8‰ at the body temperature of mammals.     

Late Wuchiapingian (Late Dzhulfian,early Late Permian) limestone olistolites within the Tertiary flysch of Glypia Unit (Mount Parnon,central–eastern Peloponnesus,Greece)

Some olistolites reworked in a Tertiary flysch of Mount Parnon (Peloponnesus, Greece) exhibit a Late Permian assemblage, dominated by Paradunbarula (Shindella) shindensis, Hemigordiopsis cf. luquensis and Colaniella aff. minima. This association corresponds to the Late Wuchiapingian (=Late Dzhulfian), a substage whose algae and foraminifera are generally little known. Contemporaneous limestones crop out in the middle part of the Episkopi Formation in Hydra, but they are rather commonly reworked in Mesozoic and Cainozoic sequences. The palaeobiogeographical affinities shared by the foraminiferal markers of Greece, southeastern Pamir, and southern China, are very strong (up to the specific level), and are congruent with the Pangea B reconstructions. To cite this article: E. Skourtsos et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 925–931.     

Upper Triassic shallow water limestones in the Sinta Ridge (Banda Sea,Indonesia)

Ten rock samples were dredged during the Banda Sea I cruise in the northern slope of the Sinta Ridge, which separates the North and South Banda basins. Some of the samples are limestones from a very shallow marine environment, with Upper Norian (to Rhaetian?) benthic Foraminifera. Similarities with eastern Sulawesi, Buru and Seram are consistent with an independant Upper Triassic block and the origin of the Banda Sea microcontinents is questionable.     

Multiwavelength monitoring of GRS 1915+105

Since its discovery in 1992, the superluminal X-ray transient GRS 1915+105 has been extensively observed in an attempt to understand its behaviour. We present here first results from a multiwavelength campaign undertaken from 1996 July to September. This study includes X-ray data from the RXTE All Sky Monitor and BATSE , two-frequency data from the Nançay radio telescope, and infrared photometry from the 1.8-m Perkins telescope at Lowell Observatory. The first long-term, well-sampled infrared light curve of GRS 1915+105 is presented herein; it is consistent with the interpretation of this source as a long-period binary. We compare the various light curves, searching for correlations in the behaviour of the source at differing wavelengths and for possible periodicities.     

Stromboli and its 1975 eruption

On November 4, 1975 in the evening, an eruption took place at Mt. Stromboli. On the following day lava flowed on the Sciara del Fuoco downward to the sea, accompanied by an intense explosive activity at the crater plane. Direct observations on the volcanic activity were carried out since November 6 while a seismic survey was made from Nov. 7 to 12. The total volume of the lava outpoured during this period of activity that lasted 21 days, was estimated to be about 10⁴ m³. This paper reports the results of direct observations, and of the petrological, radioactive disequilibria and seismic activity studies performed for this eruption. The eruption was preceded by an insignificant change of seismic activity, which was monitored by a seismic station located about 2 km East of the crater. A shallow seismicity was strietly related to crater explosions accompanying the eruptive phenomenon. Radioactive disequilibria showed a lack of disequilibrium between²²⁸Ra and²³²Th explainable in terms of a fast rising of magma in the conduit. Chemical analyses of lava samples and deep seismic sounding data indicate a correspondence between the depth (10–15 km) at which crystallization pressure of phenocrysts occurs and a low velocity laver.