Prediction of wave height based on half-cycle excursion analysis

This paper presents a method to evaluate statistical properties of half-cycle excursions including extreme values. The probability density function for half-cycle excursions for an arbitrarily given wave spectrum is developed based on the Gaussian assumption. The results of numerical computations carried out using wave data obtained during hurricane Camille show that the half-cycle probability density function agrees well with the histogram constructed from the data. The extreme wave height for design consideration computed with risk parameter 0.01 is approximately 20% greater than the observed extreme height.     

Formation of the mid-fifteenth century Kuwae caldera (Vanuatu) by an initial hydroclastic and subsequent ignimbritic eruption

In the mid-fifteenth century, one of the largest eruptions of the last 10 000 years occurred in the Central New Hebrides arc, forming the Kuwae caldera (12x6 km). This eruption followed a late maar phase in the pre-caldera edifice, responsible for a series of alternating hydromagmatic deposits and airfall lapilli layers. Tuffs related to caldera formation ( 120 m of deposits on a composite section from the caldera wall) were emitted during two main ignimbritic phases associated with two additional hydromagmatic episodes. The lower hydromagmatic tuffs from the precaldera maar phase are mainly basaltic andesite in composition, but clasts show compositions ranging from 48 to 60% SiO₂. The unwelded and welded ashflow deposits from the ignimbritic phases and the associated intermediate and upper hydromagmatic deposits also show a wide compositional range (60–73% SiO₂), but are dominantly dacitic. This broad compositional range is thought to be due to crystal fractionation. The striking evolution from one eruptive style (hydromagmatic) to the other (magmatic with emission of a large volume of ignimbrites) which occurred either over the tuff series as a whole, or at the beginning of each ignimbritic phase, is the most impressive characteristic of the caldera-forming event. This strongly suggests triggering of the main eruptive phases by magma-water interaction. A three-step model of caldera formation is presented: (1) moderate hydromagmatic (sequences HD 1–4) and magmatic (fallout deposits) activity from a central vent, probably over a period of months or years, affected an area slightly wider than the present caldera. At the end of this stage, intense seismic activity and extrusion of differentiated magma outside the caldera area occurred; (2) unhomogenized dacite was released during a hydromagmatic episode (HD 5). This was immediately followed by two major pyroclastic flows (PFD 1 and 2). The vents spread and intense magma-water interaction at the beginning of this stage decreased rapidly as magma discharge increased. Subsequent collapse of the caldera probably commenced in the southeastern sector of the caldera; (3) dacitic welded tuffs were emplaced during a second main phase (WFD 1–5). At the beginning of this phase, magma-water interaction continued, producing typical hydromagmatic deposits (HD 6). Caldera collapse extended to the northern part of the caldera. Previous C¹⁴ dates and records of explosive volcanism in ice from the south Pole show that the climactic phase of this event occurred in 1452 A.D.     

Dynamical evolution of NEAs: Close encounters, secular perturbations and resonances

We discuss the main mechanisms affecting the dynamical evolution of Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) by analyzing the results of three numerical integrations over 1 Myr of the NEA (4179) Toutatis. In the first integration the only perturbing planet is the Earth. So the evolution is dominated by close encounters and looks like a random walk in semimajor axis and a correlated random walk in eccentricity, keeping almost constant the perihelion distance and the Tisserand invariant. In the second integration Jupiter and Saturn are present instead of the Earth, and the 3/1 (mean motion) and v ₆ (secular) resonances substantially change the eccentricity but not the semimajor axis. The third, most realistic, integration including all the three planets together shows a complex interplay of effects, with close encounters switching the orbit between different resonant states and no approximate conservation of the Tisserand invariant. This shows that simplified 3-body or 4-body models cannot be used to predict the typical evolution patterns and time scales of NEAs, and in particular that resonances provide some fast-track dynamical routes from low-eccentricity to very eccentric, planet-crossing orbits.On leave from the Department of Mathematics, University of Pisa, Via Buonarroti 2, 56127 Pisa, Italy, thanks to the G. Colombo fellowships of the European Space Agency.     

Infrared imaging of Jupiter in the 8–14-micrometer spectral region

High spatial resolution images of Jupiter were produced on the Hale 200-in. telescope in August 1974 and October 1975. A programmable wobbling secondary was used to raster scan the planet with 64 by 64 1-arsec pixels. Images were made with broadband (8–14 μm) and several 1- and 2-μm wide filters. All images reveal a belt and zone structure similar to visible pjotographs. Belts, in the broadband data, appear to be about 2°K hotter than the zones, but contrast varies markedly in different parts of the 8–14-μm spectral region. The lowest belt-zone contrast is found in the hydrogen opacity dominated region at 12.5 μm, while images at 9.5 μm exhibit the greatest contrast. Isolated areas are observed to be as much as 4°K hotter than surrounding areas at 9.5 μm. This large contrast is probably due to variations in the distribution of the ammonia clouds in the upper atmosphere.     

TREK: A cosmic-ray experiment on the Russian space station MIR

The goals of the TREK experiment, now in place on the MIR Space Station, are to resolve and measure the composition of both odd-Z and even-Z cosmic-ray nuclei up to uranium, to measure the isotopic composition of Fe-group nuclei, and to search for transuranic nucleic and exotic particles such as strangelets. To collect tracks of ultraheavy cosmic rays, exterior panels holding an array of BP-1 phosphate glass 1.2m² in area and 16 plates thick are now mounted outside the Kvant-2 module on MIR. Heaters and relays regulate the temperature of the glass at 25°±5°C. The detectors will record 10³ cosmic-ray tracks withZ50 during 2.5 years. An interior panel consisting of an array 0.09 m² in area and 32 plates thick and mounted on the inside wall of the Soyuz spacecraft (attached to the Space Station) will collect tracks of about 13000 Fe and 500 Ni nuclei.     

Tripartite climate reversal in Central Europe 5600-5300 years ago

The history of variations in water level of Lake Constance, as reconstructed from sediment and pollen analysis of a sediment sequence from the archaeological site of Arbon-Bleiche 3, shows an abrupt rise in lake level dendrochronologically dated to 5375 yr ago (5320 yr relative to AD 1950). This event, paralleled by the destruction of the Neolithic village by fire, provoked the abandonment of this prehistoric lake-shore location established in the former shallow bay of Arbon-Bleiche, and was the last of a series of three episodes of successively higher lake level, the first occurring at 5600-5500 cal yr B.P. The dendrochronologically dated rise event was synchronous with an abrupt increase in atmospheric ¹⁴C. This supports the hypothesis of an abrupt climate change forced by varying solar activity. Moreover, the three successive episodes of higher lake level between 5600 and 5300 cal yr B.P. at Arbon-Bleiche 3 coincided with climatic cooling and/or changes in moisture conditions in various regions of both hemispheres. This period corresponds to the mid-Holocene climate transition (onset of the Neoglaciation) and suggests inter-hemispheric linkages for the climate variations recorded at Arbon-Bleiche 3. This mid-Holocene climate reversal may have resulted from complex interactions between changes in orbital forcing, ocean circulation and solar activity. Finally, despite different seasonal hydrological regimes, the similarities between lake-level records from Lake Constance and from Jurassian lakes over the mid-Holocene period point to time scale as a crucial factor in considering the possible impact of climate change on environments.     

Effects of magnetic interactions in anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility: Models, experiments and implications for igneous rock fabrics quantification

Besides granites of the ilmenite series, in which the anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) is mainly controlled by paramagnetic minerals, the AMS of igneous rocks is commonly interpreted as the result of the shape-preferred orientation of unequant ferromagnetic grains. In a few instances, the anisotropy due to the distribution of ferromagnetic grains, irrespective of their shape, has also been proposed as an important AMS source. Former analytical models that consider infinite geometry of identical and uniformly magnetized and coaxial particles confirm that shape fabric may be overcome by dipolar contributions if neighboring grains are close enough to each other to magnetically interact. On these bases we present and experimentally validate a two-grain macroscopic numerical model in which each grain carries its own magnetic anisotropy, volume, orientation and location in space. Compared with analytical predictions and available experiments, our results allow to list and quantify the factors that affect the effects of magnetic interactions. In particular, we discuss the effects of (i) the infinite geometry used in the analytical models, (ii) the intrinsic shape anisotropy of the grains, (iii) the relative orientation in space of the grains, and (iv) the spatial distribution of grains with a particular focus on the inter-grain distance distribution. Using documented case studies, these findings are summarized and discussed in the framework of the generalized total AMS tensor recently introduced by Cañon-Tapia (Cañon-Tapia, E., 2001. Factors affecting the relative importance of shape and distribution anisotropy in rocks: theory and experiments. Tectonophysics, 340, 117–131.). The most important result of our work is that analytical models far overestimate the role of magnetic interaction in rock fabric quantification. Considering natural rocks as an assemblage of interacting and non-interacting grains, and that the effects of interaction are reduced by (i) the finite geometry of the interacting clusters, (ii) the relative orientation between interacting grains, (iii) their heterogeneity in orientation, shape and bulk susceptibility, and (iv) their inter-distance distribution, we reconcile analytical models and experiments with real case studies that minimize the role of magnetic interaction onto the measured AMS. Limitations of our results are discussed and guidelines are provided for the use of AMS in geological interpretation of igneous rock fabrics where magnetic interactions are likely to occur.     

Limestone–marl alternations as environmental archives and the role of early diagenesis: a critical review

Limestone–marl alternations and other micritic calcareous rhythmites have long appealed to sedimentologists, as they appeared to directly reflect high-frequency environmental change. In particular, when orbital forcing gained popularity amongst sedimentologists and paleoclimatologists in 1980s, such rhythmites seemed to offer an ideal tool for high-resolution chronostratigraphy and environmental reconstruction. However, in spite of the fact that orbital forcing has become a routine interpretation of calcareous rhythmites, and that the processes of formation of calcareous rhythmites are considered well understood, research in the past 10 years again has questioned their primary origin and their direct interpretability. Detailed petrographic, paleontological, and geochemical data from numerous successions through geological time provided the basis for testing whether or not the regular alternation of limestone beds and marl or shale interlayers represents bimodally fluctuating environmental conditions in a direct way. In particular, these data, supplemented by box model simulations, imply that post-depositional alteration (diagenesis) has the potential to not only seriously distort primary environmental signals, but also to mimic primary signals. This questions the use of micritic calcareous rhythmites for high-resolution chronostratigraphy and for environmental interpretations where independent data of diagenetically inert parameters are not available. Diagenetic changes appear to have a yet widely underestimated influence on the appearance of limestone–marl alternations and other calcareous rhythmites. The aim of the present review is to summarize new approaches and give an overview of our research results in this field of the past decade. This review also aims at pointing to still enigmatic aspects that need to be addressed before the interpretation of micritic calcareous rhythmites can be considered a reliable tool for high-resolution chronostratigraphy and paleoenvironmental interpretation. “This difference [between shale and limestone] does not find definite expression in the chemical composition but appeals to the eye.” Gilbert (1895)