Prediction of wave height based on half-cycle excursion analysis

This paper presents a method to evaluate statistical properties of half-cycle excursions including extreme values. The probability density function for half-cycle excursions for an arbitrarily given wave spectrum is developed based on the Gaussian assumption. The results of numerical computations carried out using wave data obtained during hurricane Camille show that the half-cycle probability density function agrees well with the histogram constructed from the data. The extreme wave height for design consideration computed with risk parameter 0.01 is approximately 20% greater than the observed extreme height.     

Dynamical evolution of NEAs: Close encounters, secular perturbations and resonances

We discuss the main mechanisms affecting the dynamical evolution of Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) by analyzing the results of three numerical integrations over 1 Myr of the NEA (4179) Toutatis. In the first integration the only perturbing planet is the Earth. So the evolution is dominated by close encounters and looks like a random walk in semimajor axis and a correlated random walk in eccentricity, keeping almost constant the perihelion distance and the Tisserand invariant. In the second integration Jupiter and Saturn are present instead of the Earth, and the 3/1 (mean motion) and v ₆ (secular) resonances substantially change the eccentricity but not the semimajor axis. The third, most realistic, integration including all the three planets together shows a complex interplay of effects, with close encounters switching the orbit between different resonant states and no approximate conservation of the Tisserand invariant. This shows that simplified 3-body or 4-body models cannot be used to predict the typical evolution patterns and time scales of NEAs, and in particular that resonances provide some fast-track dynamical routes from low-eccentricity to very eccentric, planet-crossing orbits.On leave from the Department of Mathematics, University of Pisa, Via Buonarroti 2, 56127 Pisa, Italy, thanks to the G. Colombo fellowships of the European Space Agency.     

TREK: A cosmic-ray experiment on the Russian space station MIR

The goals of the TREK experiment, now in place on the MIR Space Station, are to resolve and measure the composition of both odd-Z and even-Z cosmic-ray nuclei up to uranium, to measure the isotopic composition of Fe-group nuclei, and to search for transuranic nucleic and exotic particles such as strangelets. To collect tracks of ultraheavy cosmic rays, exterior panels holding an array of BP-1 phosphate glass 1.2m² in area and 16 plates thick are now mounted outside the Kvant-2 module on MIR. Heaters and relays regulate the temperature of the glass at 25°±5°C. The detectors will record 10³ cosmic-ray tracks withZ50 during 2.5 years. An interior panel consisting of an array 0.09 m² in area and 32 plates thick and mounted on the inside wall of the Soyuz spacecraft (attached to the Space Station) will collect tracks of about 13000 Fe and 500 Ni nuclei.     

Nouvelles données pour l’histoire des fluctuations holocènes du niveau du lac de Neuchatel (Suisse): la séquence sédimentaire de Marin-Les Piécettes

Resume. Les fouilles archéologiques réalisées de 1998 à 2002 sur le site néolithique de Marin-Les Piécettes sur la rive nord-ouest du lac de Neuchatel ont offert l’opportunité d’observer deux séquences sédimentaires intéressantes pour la reconstitution des variations holocènes du niveau du lac, en particulier au cours de la période correspondant au changement de cours de l’Aar en direction du nord-est, vers 5650–5500 cal BP. La géométrie des corps sédimentaires et les changements lithologiques permettent de reconna?tre plusieurs phases majeures de bas niveaux relatifs du plan d’eau vers 6870, 5660, 5060–3990, 3580, 2280, 1640 et 1170 cal BP. Le site néolithique de Marin-Les Piécettes s’est développé vers 5454–5433 cal BP à la faveur d’un court épisode de bas niveau du lac qui a interrompu une importante phase de haut niveau au début du Subboréal. Les événements paléohydrologiques identifiés à Marin-Les Piécettes apparaissent cohérents avec ceux reconstitués sur le site de Montilier au bord du lac de Morat, ainsi qu’avec les variations paléohydrologiques reconstituées à partir des lacs du Jura, du Plateau suisse et des Préalpes du Nord fran?aises. Ceci suggère qu’ils témoignent d’un signal climatique. La séquence sédimentaire de Marin-Les Piécettes met enfin en évidence la formation d’un cordon littoral sur la rive nord-ouest du lac juste après 5660 cal BP. Manuscrit re?u le 22 septembre 2004 Révision acceptée le 11 mars 2005     

An experimental study of the effect of boron on a water saturated haplogranite at 1 Kbar vapour pressure

An experimental study of the effect of boron in the water saturated Q-Or-Ab-B₂O₃-H₂O system has been performed at P=1 Kbar to provide experimental data and explain the role of boron in some late magmatic and early hydrothermal events. Experiments were conducted between 500° C and 800° starting from a gel, or a previously crystallized gel, and variable amounts of boron (0 to 18% B₂O₃) added to water. The phases obtained were: quartz, sanidine, albite, silicate liquid quenched to glass, and aqueous vapour phase. Boric acids, borates and isotropic low index materials were found in the quenched vapour phase. An aluminium silicate-like mineral, not yet fully identified, is also present.The solidus temperature of the Q-Or-Ab composition is lowered by 60° C when 5 wt. % B₂O₃ is added and by more than 130° C when 17wt. % B₂O₃ is added. Compositions of equilibrated silicate melts and vapours were obtained between 780° C and 750° C for various B₂O₃ concentrations. The vapour phase is B and Si rich. It is also enriched in Na with respect to K, and in alkalis with respect to Al. Its silicate solute content is higher than in experiments with pure water. The solubility of water is increased by the addition of boron in Q-Or-Ab melts. Microprobe data show that the melts equilibrated with vapour phases become hyperaluminous and more potassic than sodic. The partition coefficient of boron is in favour of the vapour (k _D=B₂O₃% in melt/B₂O₃% in vapour=0.33±0.02). The effect of the interaction between the silicate phases and the vapour is discussed. Comparison is made between the behaviour of boron and that of chlorine and fluorine. Geological applications are also provided, which concern the influence of boron on minimum melting, on muscovite stability and on the hypersolvus-subsolvus transition.     

Light Curve Modelling and Evolutionary Status of the Short Period Binary 1SWASP J092328.76+435044

Light curve modeling for the newly discovered super contact low-mass WUMa system 1SWASPJ092328.76+435044 was carried out by using a new BVR complete light curves. A spotted model was applied to treat the asymmetry of the light curves. The output model was obtained by means of Wilson–Devinney code, which reveals that the massive component is hotter than the less massive one with about ΔT ～ 40 K. A total of six new times of minima were estimated. The evolutionary state of the system components was investigated based on the estimated physical parameters.