Reducing global GHG emissions by replicating successful sector examples: the ‘good practice policies’ scenario

This article shows the potential impact on global GHG emissions in 2030, if all countries were to implement sectoral climate policies similar to successful examples already implemented elsewhere. This assessment was represented in the IMAGE and GLOBIOM/G4M models by replicating the impact of successful national policies at the sector level in all world regions. The first step was to select successful policies in nine policy areas. In the second step, the impact on the energy and land-use systems or GHG emissions was identified and translated into model parameters, assuming that it would be possible to translate the impacts of the policies to other countries. As a result, projected annual GHG emission levels would be about 50 GtCO₂e by 2030 (2% above 2010 levels), compared to the 60 GtCO₂e in the ‘current policies’ scenario. Most reductions are achieved in the electricity sector through expanding renewable energy, followed by the reduction of fluorinated gases, reducing venting and flaring in oil and gas production, and improving industry efficiency. Materializing the calculated mitigation potential might not be as straightforward given different country priorities, policy preferences and circumstances.

Key policy insights

• Considerable emissions reductions globally would be possible, if a selection of successful policies were replicated and implemented in all countries worldwide.

• This would significantly reduce, but not close, the emissions gap with a 2°C pathway.

• From the selection of successful policies evaluated in this study, those implemented in the sector ‘electricity supply’ have the highest impact on global emissions compared to the ‘current policies’ scenario.

• Replicating the impact of these policies worldwide could lead to emission and energy trends in the renewable electricity, passenger transport, industry (including fluorinated gases) and buildings sector, that are close to those in a 2°C scenario.

• Using successful policies and translating these to policy impact per sector is a more reality-based alternative to most mitigation pathways, which need to make theoretical assumptions on policy cost-effectiveness.

     

Cosmic Lithium-Beryllium-Boron Story

Light element nucleosynthesis is an important chapter of nuclear astrophysics. Specifically, the rare and fragile light nuclei Lithium, Beryllium and Boron (LiBeB) are not generated in the normal course of stellar nucleosynthesis (except ⁷Li) and are, in fact, destroyed in stellar interiors. This characteristic is reflected in the low abundance of these simple species. Up to recently, the most plausible interpretation was that Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) interact with interstellar CNO to form LiBeB. Other origins have been also identified: primordial and stellar (⁷Li) and supernova neutrino spallation (⁷Li and ¹¹B). In contrast, ⁹Be, ¹⁰B and ⁶Li are pure spallative products. This last isotope presents a special interest since the ⁶Li/⁷Li ratio has been measured recently in a few halo stars offering a new constraint on the early galactic evolution of light elements. Optical measurements of the beryllium and boron abundances in halo stars have been achieved by the 10 meter KECK telescope and the Hubble Space Telescope. These observations indicate a quasi linear correlation between Be and B vs Fe, at least at low metallicity, which, at first sight, is contradictory to a dominating GCR origin of the light elements which predicts a quadratic relationship. As a consequence, the theory of the origin and evolution of LiBeB nuclei has to be refined. Aside GCRs, which are accelerated in the general interstellar medium (ISM) and create LiBeB through the break up of CNO by fast protons and alphas, Wolf-Rayet stars (WR) and core collapse supernovae (SNII) grouped in superbubbles could produce copious amounts of light elements via the fragmentation in flight of rapid carbon and oxygen nuclei colliding with H and He in the ISM. In this case, LiBeB would be produced independently of the interstellar medium chemical composition and thus a primary origin is expected. These different processes are discussed in the framework of a galactic evolutionary model. More spectroscopic observations (specifically of O, Fe, Li, Be, B) in halo stars are required for a better understanding of the relative contribution of the various mechanisms. Future tests on the injection and acceleration of nuclei by supernovae and Wolf Rayet relying on gamma-ray line astronomy will be invoked in the perspective of the European INTEGRAL satellite. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Accumulation in Svalbard glaciers deduced from ice cores with nuclear tests and Chernobyl reference layers

Mean net annual balance and the related spatio-temporal variations have been determined on the basis of well-dated artificial layers in shallow ice cores (Chernobyl, 1986, and atmospheric thermonuclear tests, mainly in 1961-62 in Novaya Zemlya). Seventy ice cores from 13 Svalbard glaciers have been analysed. On each glacier, in its accumulation area and at the highest elevation, one ice core was recovered down to about 40 m and sampled for radioactivity measurements to determine the 1986 and 1962-63 layer (1954 was the initial date of the nuclear tests). For each glacier, at least five complementary ice cores from the accumulation area were analysed to determine the Chernobyl reference layer. Six ice cores exhibit both the Chernobyl and nuclear tests layers and are of special interest in this study.
This work provides new data on the deposition rates of natural and artificial radioisotopes. Using ice cores samples from the Arctic glaciers, even with superimposed ice accumulation, it is possible to distinguish between the Chernobyl and the nuclear tests fallouts. This work also shows that the mean annual net balance did not significantly change for at least five ice core locations in the Svalbard glaciers for the two periods extending from 1963 to 1986 to the recent date of drilling.     

Numerical simulation of the propagation of P waves in fractured media

We study the propagation of P waves through media containing open fractures by performing numerical simulations. The important parameter in such problems is the ratio between crack length and incident wavelength. When the wavelength of the incident wavefield is close to or shorter than the crack length, the scattered waves are efficiently excited and the attenuation of the primary waves can be observed on synthetic seismograms. On the other hand, when the incident wavelength is greater than the crack length, we can simulate the anisotropic behaviour of fractured media resulting from the scattering of seismic waves by the cracks through the time delay of the arrival of the transmitted wave. The method of calculation used is a boundary element method in which the Green's functions are computed by the discrete wavenumber method. For simplicity, the 2-D elastodynamic diffraction problem is considered. The rock matrix is supposed to be elastic, isotropic and homogeneous, while the cracks are all empty and have the same length and strike direction. An iterative method of calculation of the diffracted wavefield is developed in the case where a large number of cracks are present in order to reduce the computation time. The attenuation factor Q ⁻¹ of the direct waves passing through a fractured zone is measured in several frequency bands. We observe that the attenuation factor Q ⁻¹ of the direct P wave peaks around kd = 2, where k is the incident wavenumber and d the crack length, and decreases proportionally to ( kd ) ⁻¹ in the high-wavenumber range. In the long-wavelength domain, the velocity of the direct P wave measured for two different crack realizations is very close to the value predicted by Hudson's theory on the overall elastic properties of fractured materials.     

Deep crustal structure and rheology of the Gascoyne volcanic margin,western Australia

Interpretation of deep seismic reflection data across the Gascoyne Margin reveals six distinct seismic facies units related to the tectono-magmatic breakup history. On the outer Exmouth Plateau four large scale units are identified: (1) an extensively block-faulted upper crust; (2) a middle-crustal unit of discontinuous, undulatory reflectors; (3) a reflection-free deep crustal unit; and (4) a lower-crustal band of low-frequency, high-amplitude reflectors. Two additional units are found near the continent-ocean boundary (COB); (5) seaward-dipping reflectors (SDR); and (6) landward-dipping reflectors in the lower crust below the SDR. The lower-crustal high-reflectivity band, located near the top of a high-velocity unit (V_p > 7 kms^–1), is interpreted as magmatic underplating. There is a spatial correlation between the underplated area and the presence of extensive upper-crustal block-faulting and intrusive rocks in the shallow crust. The undulatory middle-crustal reflector unit is also only identified in the outer plateau area, and is interpreted as a zone in which the upper-crustal faults terminate. The inner parts of the margin consist of a deep basin showing little upper-crustal faulting and no evidence of middle crustal deformation or underplating. Theoretical modeling of the effect of rifting and magmatic underplating on crustal strength profiles suggests that the brittle-ductile transition may migrate at least 5 km upwards during several million years after the underplating event. Based on the seismic interpretation and crustal strength modeling we propose that the seismic structure of the outer Exmouth Plateau is severely modified by a transient change in the crustal rheological structure associated with magmatic underplating.     

Biokinetics of Radiocobalt in the Asteroid Asterias rubens (Echinodermata): Sea Water and Food Exposures

Uptake and loss of cobalt-57 were investigated in the starfish Asterias rubens, in order to assess its value as a sentinel organism for nearshore radionuclide contamination. Whole-body uptake from sea water was linear over a 32-day exposure period and reached wet weight concentration factor (CF) of 23 ± 5. Bioaccumulation of ⁵⁷Co was dependent upon body compartment, the aboral part of the body wall concentrating cobalt to the greatest degree (wet weight CF: 77 ± 16). After restoration of uncontaminated conditions, radiocobalt was released following an exponential loss kinetics characterized by a biological half-life (T_b1/2) of 27 ± 6 day. Dietary radiocobalt (taken up during a short-term feeding for 24 h on radiolabelled mussels) showed a much more rapid turnover time (T_b1/2: 14 ± 4 d), suggesting that A. rubens accumulates this radionuclide predominantly from sea water. A. rubens, and more particularly the aboral part of its body wall, would readily reveal the presence of an environmental contamination by radiocobalt and could preserve this information over a period of few months.     

Measuring and interpreting heat fluxes from shallow volcanic bodies using vertical temperature profiles: a preliminary test

 To test the potential of heat flux prospecting in active volcanic areas using shallow temperature data taken along vertical profiles, we carried out two thermal profile surveys, one not far from Yasur cone on Tanna Island, and another inside the caldera of Ambrym (New Hebrides arc, southwestern Pacific). The basic steady heat flux of internal volcanic origin was determined, taking into account both conductive and convective heat transfers. At both locations there exists, over small distances, significant differences in the heat flux. These differences correspond to shallow sources of heat. The use of a network of vertical profiles allowed: (a) heat flux mapping; (b) location of shallow volcanic heat sources; and (c) observation of the detailed structure of the heat release at quiescent but active volcanoes. Received: 18 July 1997 / Accepted: 13 May 1998     

Visual characterization technique for gravel‐cobble river bed surface sediments; validation and environmental applications Contribution to the programme of CIRSA (Centre Interuniversitaire de Recherche sur le Saumon Atlantique)

This paper presents an evaluation of the feasibility and the reliability of a visual characterization technique for gravel–cobble river bed surface substrate. Based on principal axis regressions, using phi scale (ϕ), comparisons of visual estimation and grid sampling techniques show that useful predictive relations (R² = 0·78–0·88) exist between visual estimates of the surface d₁₆, d₅₀ and d₈₄ and estimates obtained for the same percentiles with the grid sampling technique. Comparisons of visual estimation and the surface‐bulk sampling technique also indicate a predictive relation (R² = 0·70) between the d₅₀ of the two methods. Trained operators can visually estimate gravel–cobble bed surface d₁₆ to uncertainties of 41 per cent, d₅₀ to 15 per cent and d₈₄ to 11 per cent (for example, there is a 5·5 mm error on a d₈₄ size of 50 mm). Furthermore, evidence shows that if operators are properly trained, a calibration relation for each percentile can be applied independently of operators. This visual characterization allows effective detailed mapping of spatial patterns in substrate size distribution along extensive reaches of gravel‐bed rivers. The technique can be very useful in creating terrain models for various geomorphological, hydrological and biological applications such as the determination of entrainment thresholds, hydraulic roughness and substrate suitability for benthic insects or salmonid habitat. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.