Deriving fragility functions from bilinearized capacity curves for earthquake scenario modelling using the conditional spectrum

The development of fragility curves to perform seismic scenario-based risk assessment requires a fully probabilistic procedure in order to account for uncertainties at each step of the computation. This is especially true when developing fragility curves conditional on an Intensity Measure that is directly available from a ground-motion prediction equation. In this study, we propose a new derivation method that uses realistic spectra instead of design spectral shapes or uniform hazard spectra and allows one to easily account for the features of the site-specific hazard that influences the fragility, without using non-linear dynamic analysis. The proposed method has been applied to typical school building types in the city of Basel (Switzerland) and the results have been compared to the standard practice in Europe. The results confirm that fragility curves are scenario dependent and are particularly sensitive to the magnitude of the earthquake scenario. The same background theory used for the derivation of the fragility curves has allowed an innovative method to be proposed for the conversion of fragility curves to a common IM (i.e. spectral acceleration or PGA). This conversion is the only way direct comparisons of fragility curves can be made and is useful when inter-period correlation cannot be used in scenario loss assessment. Moreover, such conversion is necessary to compare and verify newly developed curves against those from previous studies. Conversion to macroseismic intensity is also relevant for the comparison between mechanical-based and empirical fragility curves, in order to detect possible biases.     

Sorption-desorption kinetics and toxic cell concentration in marine phytoplankton microalgae exposed to Linear Alkylbenzene Sulfonate

Linear Alkylbenzene Sulfonates (LAS) are ubiquitous surfactants. Traces can be found in coastal environments. Sorption and toxicity of C₁₂-LAS congeners were studied in controlled conditions (2-3500 μg C₁₂LAS/L) in five marine phytoplanktonic species, using standardized methods. IC₅₀ values ranged from 0.5 to 2 mg LAS/L. Sorption of ¹⁴C₁₂-6 LAS isomer was measured at environmentally relevant trace levels (4 μg/L) using liquid scintillation counting. Steady-state sorption on algae was reached within 5 h in the order dinoflagellate > diatoms > green algae. The sorption data, fitted a L-type Freundlich isotherm, indicating saturation. Desorption was rapid but a low LAS fraction was still sorbed after 24 h. Toxic cell concentration was 0.38 ± 0.09 mg/g for the studied species. LAS toxicity results from sorption on biological membranes leading to non-specific disturbance of algal growth. Results indicate that LAS concentrations in coastal environments do not represent a risk for these organisms.     

1999年土耳其Izmit Mw7.6地震的持续成核过程

实验室和理论研究表明,地震之前会出现一个渐进性的滑动不稳定阶段,在此期间,断层缓慢滑动,而后突然加速并最终导致动态破裂.本文中,我们报道了迄今记录最为完整的大地震之一,即1999年土耳其Izmit Mw7.6地震之前出现了持续时间很久的源自震源的地震信号.这种信号包含一连串的地震破裂,破裂随时间和低频地震噪声的增加而加...     

Climate change and resilience of tributary thermal refugia for salmonids in eastern Canadian rivers

Abstract

River water temperature regimes are expected to change along with climate over the next decades. This work focuses on three important salmon rivers of eastern Canada, two of which warm up most summers to temperatures higher than the Atlantic salmon lethal limit (>28°C). Water temperature was monitored at 53 sites on the three basins during 2–18 summers, with about half of these sites either known or potential thermal refugia for salmon. Site-specific statistical models predicting water temperature, based on 10 different climate scenarios, were developed in order to assess how many of these sites will remain cool enough to serve as refugia in the future (2046–2065). The results indicate that, while 19 of the 23 identified refugia will persist, important increases in the occurrence and duration of temperature events in excess of 24°C and 28°C, respectively, in the mainstems of the rivers, will lead to higher demands for thermal refugia in the salmonid populations.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor T. Okruszko     

Feasibility of High Pressure Injection of Chemicals into the Subsurface for the Bioremediation of the Exxon Valdez Oil

Delivery of dissolved chemicals to bioremediate oil from the Exxon Valdez oil spill was investigated at Beach EL056C of Eleanor Island, Prince William Sound, Alaska. The delivery technique was high pressure injection (HPI) of an inert tracer, lithium, at the approximate depth of 1.0 m into the beach near the mid‐tide line. The results revealed that the maximum injection flow rate was 3.0 L/min and the associated pressure was around 196 kPa. Therefore, exceeding any of these values would probably cause failure of the injection system. The injected tracer was monitored at multiple depths of four surrounding observation wells, and the results showed that the tracer plume occupied an area of 12 m² within 24 h. The tracer plume traveled at the average speeds of 10 m/d in the seaward direction and 1.7 m/d in other directions. The rapid movement under HPI and the large diameter of influence (3.0 m) indicated that bioremediation of the Exxon Valdez oil on this beach via injection of chemicals is logistically feasible.     

Characterization and Application of Dried Plants to Remove Heavy Metals,Nitrate, and Phosphate Ions from Industrial Wastewaters

Low cost adsorbents were prepared from dried plants for the removal of heavy metals, nitrate, and phosphate ions from industrial wastewaters. The efficiency of these adsorbents was investigated using batch adsorption technique at room temperature. The dried plant particles were characterized by N₂ at 77 K adsorption, scanning electron microscopy, energy dispersive X‐ray spectroscopy, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, and phytochemical screening. The adsorption experiments showed that the microparticles of the dried plants presented a good adsorption of heavy metals, phosphate, and nitrate ions from real wastewaters. This adsorption increased with increasing contact time. The equilibrium time was found to be 30 min for heavy metals and nitrate ions and 240 min for phosphate ions. After the adsorption process, the Pb(II) concentrations, as well as those of Cd(II), Cu(II), and Zn(II) were below the European drinking water norms concentrations. The percentage removal of heavy metals, nitrates, and phosphates from industrial wastewaters by dried plants was ～94% for Cd²⁺, ～92% for Cu²⁺, ～99% for Pb²⁺, ～97% for Zn²⁺, ～100% for ${\rm NO}_{{\rm 3}}^{{-} } $ and ～77% for ${\rm PO}_{{\rm 4}}^{3{-} } $ ions. It is proved that dried plants can be one alternative source for low cost absorbents to remove heavy metals, nitrate, and phosphate ions from municipal and industrial wastewaters.     

Heat budget of the surface mixed layer south of Africa

ARGO hydrographic profiles, two hydrographic transects and satellite measurements of air–sea exchange parameters were used to characterize the properties and seasonal heat budget variations of the Surface Mixed Layer (SML) south of Africa. The analysis distinguishes the Subtropical domain (STZ) and the Subantarctic Zone (SAZ), Polar Frontal Zone (PFZ) and Antarctic Zone (AZ) of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. While no Subantarctic Mode Water forms in that region, occurrences of deep SML (up to ∼450 m) are observed in the SAZ in anticyclones detached from the Agulhas Current retroflection or Agulhas Return Current. These are present latitudinally throughout the SAZ, but preferentially at longitudes 10–20° E where, according to previous results, the Subtropical Front is interrupted. Likely owing to this exchange window and to transfers at the Subantarctic Front also enhanced by the anticyclones, the SAZ shows a wide range of properties largely encroaching upon those of the neighbouring domains. Heat budget computations in each zone reveal significant meridional changes of regime. While air–sea heat fluxes dictate the heat budget seasonal variability everywhere, heat is mostly brought through lateral geostrophic advection by the Agulhas Current in the STZ, through lateral diffusion in the SAZ and through air–sea fluxes in the PFZ and AZ. The cooling contributions are by Ekman advection everywhere, lateral diffusion in the STZ (also favoured by the ∼10° breach in the Subtropical Front) and geostrophic advection in the SAZ. The latter likely reflects an eastward draining of water warmed through mixing of the subtropical eddies.     

Fluxes of uranium and thorium series isotopes in the Santa Barbara Basin

Samples from the MANOP Santa Barbara Basin sediment trap intercomparison were analyzed for the isotopes of uranium, thorium, radium, lead, and polonium. All of the traps showed approximately the same compositions and isotopic ratios, indicating that they trapped similar materials. The²³⁴Th flux via falling particles was very close to the flux predicted from the production and scavenging rates of²³⁴Th from the water column. The²¹⁰Pb content of the trapped particles and the surface sediments were the same, however, the measured flux of²¹⁰Pb was seven times greater than the predicted flux. Predicted and measured fluxes of²²⁸Th and²¹⁰Po were similarly out of balance. To explain this apparent inconsistency, we suggest (as others have done) that the Santa Barbara Basin is an area where scavenging from the water column is intensified and where sediments deposited initially on the margins may be physically remobilized on a short time scale. These two effects increase the apparent area from which the basin derives the longer-lived isotopes but does not increase significantly the supply of the short-lived²³⁴Th.     

A field study of the coupled effects of aquifer stratification,fluid density,and groundwater fluctuations on dispersivity assessments

A number of experimental studies have tackled the issue of solute transport parameter assessments either in the laboratory or in the field. But yet, the behavior of a plume in the field under density driven forces, is not well known due to possible development of instabilities. Some field tracer tests on the fate of plumes denser than native groundwater such as those encountered under waste disposal facilities, have pointed out the processes of sinking and splitting at the early stage of migration. The process of dispersion was widely investigated, but the range of dispersivity values obtained from either experimental tests, or numerical and theoretical calculations is still very large, even for the same type of aquifers. These discrepancies were considered to be essentially caused by soil heterogeneities and scale effects. In the meantime, studies on the influence of sinking and fingering have remained more scarce. The objective of the work is to analyze how transport parameters such as dispersivities can be affected by unstable conditions, which lead to plume sinking and fingering. A series of tracer tests were carried out to study under natural conditions, the transport of a dense chloride solution injected in a shallow two-layered aquifer. Two types of experiments were performed: in the first type, source injection was such that the plume could travel downward from one layer to the other of higher pore velocity, and in the second one, the migration took place only in the faster layer. The results suggest some new insights in the processes occurring at the early stages of a dense plume migration moving in a stratified aquifer under groundwater fluctuations, which can be summarized through the following points: (i) Above a stability criterion threshold, a fingering process and a multi modal plume transport take place, but local dispersivities can be cautiously derived, using breakthrough curves matching. (ii) When water table is subject to some cycling or rising, the plume can be significantly distorted in the transverse direction, leading to unusual values of the ratio between longitudinal and transverse dispersivities. (iii) Under stable conditions, for example in the case of straightforward injection in the faster aquifer layer, longitudinal dispersivity is greater than the transverse component as usually encountered, and the obtained transport parameters are closed to macro dispersivity values, which reach their asymptotic limit at very short distances. (iv) The classical scale effect about the varying dispersivity at short distances could be a process mainly due to the distance required for a plume stabilization.     

An energy approach to sliding of single-span simply supported slab-on-girder steel highway bridges with damaged bearings

This paper investigates the non-linear inelastic seismic response of existing single-span simply supported bridges having bearings which can remain stable and slide after their anchor bolts are ruptured. A simplified equivalent model is developed for the inelastic analysis of these single-span simply supported bridges. Non-linear inelastic time-history analyses are conducted for various acceleration inputs. It is found that narrower bridges with longer spans may have considerable sliding displacements and fall off their supports if adequate seat width is not provided. It is also found that for the same ratio of friction coefficient to peak ground acceleration, the sliding displacement of a structural system is linearly proportional to the amplitude of the peak ground acceleration beyond a certain threshold value. This is also demonstrated analytically from an energy approach point of view. The distribution of the energy content of an earthquake, which is related to its velocity time history, can be an indication of the propensity of an earthquake to cause high sliding displacements. Ground motions with high frequency content or high A_p/V_p ratio may produce smaller sliding displacements than ground motions with relatively lower A_p/V_p ratios.