Understanding Climatic Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Adaptation in the United States: Building a Capacity for Assessment

Based on the experience of the U.S. National Assessment, we propose a program of research and analysis to advance capability for assessment of climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options. We identify specific priorities for scientific research on the responses of ecological and socioeconomic systems to climate and other stresses; for improvement in the climatic inputs to impact assessments; and for further development of assessment methods to improve their practical utility to decision-makers. Finally, we propose a new institutional model for assessment, based principally on regional efforts that integrate observations, research, data, applications, and assessment on climate and linked environmental-change issues. The proposed program will require effective collaboration between scientists, resource managers, and other stakeholders, all of whose expertise is needed to define and prioritize key regional issues, characterize relevant uncertainties, and assess potential responses. While both scientifically and organizationally challenging, such an integrated program holds the best promise of advancing our capacity to manage resources and the economy adaptively under a changing climate.     

Non-linear climate feedback analysis in an atmospheric general circulation model

 A method is described for evaluating the ‘partial derivatives’ of globally averaged top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation changes with respect to basic climate model physical parameters. This method is used to analyse feedbacks in the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre general circulation model. The parameters considered are surface temperature, water vapour, lapse rate and cloud cover. The climate forcing which produces the changes is a globally uniform sea surface temperature (SST) perturbation. The first and second order differentials of model parameters with respect to the forcing (i.e. SST changes) are estimated from quadratic least square fitting. Except for total cloud cover, variables are found to be strong functions of global SST. Strongly non-linear variations of lapse rate and high cloud amount and height appear to relate to the non-linear response in penetrative convection. Globally averaged TOA radiation differentials with respect to model parameters are also evaluated. With the exception of total cloud contributions, a high correlation is generally found to exist, on the global mean level, between TOA radiation and the respective parameter perturbations. The largest non-linear terms contributing to radiative changes are those due to lapse rate and high cloud. The contributions of linear and non-linear terms to the overall radiative response from a 4 K SST perturbation are assessed. Significant non-linear responses are found to be associated with lapse rate, water vapour and cloud changes. Although the exact magnitude of these responses is likely to be a function of the particular model as well as the imposed SST perturbation pattern, the present experiments flag these as processes which cannot properly be understood from linear theory in the evaluation of climate change sensitivity. Received: 16 January 1997/Accepted: 9 May 1997     

Palaeosecular variation over the past 5 Myr based on a new generalized database

A generalized database of global palaeomagnetic data from 3719 lava flows and thin dykes of age 0–5 Ma has been constructed for use with a relational database management system. The database includes all data whose virtual geomagnetic poles (VGP) lie within 45 of the spin axis and can be used for studies of palaeosecular variation and for geomagnetic field modelling. Because many of these data were collected and processed more than 15–20 years ago, each result has been characterized according to the demagnetization procedures carried out. Analysis of these data in terms of the latitude variation of the angular dispersion of VGPs (palaeosecular variation from lavas) strongly suggests that careful data selection is required and that many of the older studies may need to be redone using more modern methods. Differences between the angular dispersions for separate normal- and reverse-polarity data sets confirm that many older studies have not been adequately cleaned magnetically. Therefore, the use of the database for geomagnetic field modelling should be carried out with some caution. Using a VGP cut-off angle that varies with latitude, the best data set consists of 2636 results that show a smooth increase of VGP angular dispersion with latitude. Model G for palaeosecular variation, which is based on modelling of the antisymmetric (dipole) and symmetric (quadrupole) dynamo families, provides a good fit to these results.     

Fluvial process and the establishment of bottomland trees

The effects of river regulation on bottomland tree communities in western North America have generated substantial concern because of the important habitat and aesthetic values of these communities. Consideration of such effects in water management decisions has been hampered by the apparent variability of responses of bottomland tree communities to flow alteration. When the relation between streamflow and tree establishment is placed in a geomorphic context, however, much of that variability is explained, and prediction of changes in the tree community is improved.The relation between streamflow and establishment of bottomland trees is conditioned by the dominant fluvial process or processes acting along a stream. For successful establishment, cottonwoods, poplars, and willows require bare, moist surfaces protected from disturbance. Channel narrowing, channel meandering, and flood deposition promote different spatial and temporal patterns of establishment. During channel narrowing, the site requirements are met on portions of the bed abandoned by the stream, and establishment is associated with a period of low flow lasting one to several years. During channel meandering, the requirements are met on point bars following moderate or higher peak flows. Following flood deposition, the requirements are met on flood deposits ;high above the channel bed. Flood deposition can occur along most streams, but where a channel is constrained by a narrow valley, this process may be the only mechanism that can produce a bare, moist surface high enough to be safe from future disturbance. Because of differences in local bedrock, tributary influence, or geologic history, two nearby reaches of the same stream may be dominated by different fluvial processes and have different spatial and temporal patterns of trees. We illustrate this phenomenon with examples from forests of plains cottonwood (Populus deltoides ssp. monilifera) along meandering and constrained reaches of the Missouri River in Montana.