Multicollinearity and correlation among local regression coefficients in geographically weighted regression

Present methodological research on geographically weighted regression (GWR) focuses primarily on extensions of the basic GWR model, while ignoring well-established diagnostics tests commonly used in standard global regression analysis. This paper investigates multicollinearity issues surrounding the local GWR coefficients at a single location and the overall correlation between GWR coefficients associated with two different exogenous variables. Results indicate that the local regression coefficients are potentially collinear even if the underlying exogenous variables in the data generating process are uncorrelated. Based on these findings, applied GWR research should practice caution in substantively interpreting the spatial patterns of local GWR coefficients. An empirical disease-mapping example is used to motivate the GWR multicollinearity problem. Controlled experiments are performed to systematically explore coefficient dependency issues in GWR. These experiments specify global models that use eigenvectors from a spatial link matrix as exogenous variables.This study was supported by grant number 1 R1 CA95982-01, Geographic-Based Research in Cancer Control and Epidermiology, from the National Cancer Institute. The author thank the anonymous reviewers and the editor for their helpful comments.     

Spatial process and data models: Toward integration of agent-based models and GIS

The use of object-orientation for both spatial data and spatial process models facilitates their integration, which can allow exploration and explanation of spatial-temporal phenomena. In order to better understand how tight coupling might proceed and to evaluate the possible functional and efficiency gains from such a tight coupling, we identify four key relationships affecting how geographic data (fields and objects) and agent-based process models can interact: identity, causal, temporal and topological. We discuss approaches to implementing tight integration, focusing on a middleware approach that links existing GIS and ABM development platforms, and illustrate the need and approaches with example agent-based models.     

Combined Digital Photogrammetry and Time-of-Flight Laser Scanning for Monitoring Cliff Evolution

Although cliffs form approximately 75% of the world's coastline, the understanding of the processes through which they evolve remains limited because of a lack of quantitative data on the morphological changes they undergo. In this paper the combination of terrestrial time-of-flight laser scanning with high-resolution digital photogrammetry is examined to generate high-quality data-sets pertaining to the geomorphic processes governing cliff development. The study was undertaken on a section of hard rock cliffs in North Yorkshire, UK, which has been monitored over a 12-month period. High-density, laser-scanned point clouds have been used to produce an accurate representation of these complex surfaces, free from the optical variations that degrade photographic data. These data-sets have been combined with high-resolution photographic monitoring, resampled with the fixed accuracies of the terrestrial laser survey, to generate a new approach to recording the volumetric changes in complex coastal cliffs. This has led to significant improvements in the understanding of the activity patterns of coastal cliffs.     

Observations And Modelling Of The On-Ice And Off-Ice Air Flow Over The Northern Baltic Sea

Two cases of on-ice and off-ice air flow characterizing the opposite weather situations over the ice-edge zone in the northern Baltic Sea are analysed on the basis of aircraft observations, and modelled using atwo-dimensional mesoscale model. The stable boundary layer (SBL) during theon-ice flow exhibited little thermal modification, but a low-level jet (LLJ) was generated at the 250-m high top of the SBL. In the model, the LLJ was associated with inertial oscillations in space, while the baroclinicity explained the shape of the wind profile well above the SBL. Although the observed LLJ was most pronounced over the ice, the modelling suggests that it was not generated by the ice edge but by the coastline some 400 km upwind of the ice edge, where a much more drastic change in the thermal stratification and surface roughness took place. The generation, maintenance, and strength of the LLJ were very sensitive to the parameterization of turbulent mixing in the SBL. In the case of the off-ice flow, the modification of the air mass and the development of a convective boundary layer (CBL) both over the ice and open sea were reasonably well modelled. Sensitivity runs suggested that it was essential to take into account the effects of subgrid-scale leads, a forest in the archipelago (which was crossed by the air flow), and water vapour condensationinto ice crystals. The heat flux from leads was particularly important for the heatbudget of the CBL, and the observed growth of the CBL was partly due to theeffective mixing over the rough and relatively warm forest.     

Microclimatological characteristics of a miscanthus (Miscanthus cv. giganteus) stand during stable conditionsat night in the nonvegetative winter period

Summary ?Microclimatological data obtained during a field experiment in the nongrowing winter period were used to study the microclimatologically stable night conditions of a 200 × 150 m miscanthus (Miscanthus cv. giganteus) stand and compared to open field conditions. The microclimatological pattern within the miscanthus canopy was characterized by long-wave radiative cooling of the plant stand and by an established temperature inversion within the canopy at calm nights. The results show that there are significant differences in air temperature and energy balance components between the open field and the miscanthus field during calm and clear nights. In general, net radiation difference during the cold and calm nights was relatively constant and about 20 W m⁻² less negative in miscanthus (because of lower surface temperatures) than at the open field. Air temperature differences also remained fairly constant and were up to 3 °C lower than at the open field (at the height of 1 m). Through thermal inversion cold air accumulated in the lower parts of the canopy as shown by the vertical air temperature profiles. They showed a greater amplitude within the diurnal cycle in the miscanthus stand than in the open field. Through the onset of wind, temperature profiles changed rapidly and differences diminished. Vertical katabatic air drainage into the canopy layers was estimated indirectly by using the energy balance approach. It was calculated from the significant energy balance closure gap and showed a mean air exchange rate of up to 22 m³ m⁻² h⁻¹, related to a stand volume of 1 m² area and 4 m height, during the mostly calm and clear nights, depending on the canopy net radiation and turbulent heat exchange forced by slight wind spells. Quantitative uncertainties in calculated cold air drainage which are introduced by the measurement method and certain assumptions in the calculations, were considered in a sensitivity analysis. In spite of these uncertainties evidence of katabatic cold air flow is given. Received July 29, 1999; revised June 11, 2001; accepted March 14, 2002     

Daily Air Temperature and Pressure Series for Stockholm (1756–1998)

Daily meteorological observations have been made at the old astronomical observatory in Stockholm since 1754. Complete daily mean series of air temperature and sea level pressure are reconstructed from the observational data for 1756–1998. The temperature and pressure series arereconstructed and homogenized with the aid of metadata, statistical tests and comparisons with data from other stations. Comparisons with independently reconstructed daily series for nearby Uppsala (1722–1998) show that the quality of thedaily Stockholm data is good, although the reliability is lower before the mid-19th century. The daily temperature data show that the colder winter mean temperatures of the late 18th to early 19th centuries were connected with a particularly high frequency of very cold winter days. The warmer summers of the same period are more connected with a general shift of the temperature distribution towards higher temperatures than in the late 20th century.     

Effective and Equitable Dissemination of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Forecasts: Policy Implications from the Peruvian Fishery during El Niño 1997–98

The development of seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions has spurred widespread claims that the dissemination of such forecasts will yield benefits for society. Based on the use as well as non-use of forecasts in the Peruvian fishery during the 1997–98 El Niño event, weidentify: (1) potential constraints on the realization of benefits, such aslimited access to and understanding of information, and unintended reactions; (2) theneed for an appropriately detailed definition of societal benefit, considering whose welfare counts as a benefit among groups such as labor, industry, consumers, citizens of different regions, and future generations.We argue that consideration of who benefits, and an understanding of potential socioeconomic constraints and how they might be addressed, should be brought to bear on forecast dissemination choices. We conclude with examples of relevant dissemination choices made using this process.     

Geochemistry and Rb–Sr geochronology of a ductile shear zone in the Orlica-Śnieżnik dome (West Sudetes, Poland)

Amphibolite-facies orthogneisses of the Orlica-vnie™nik dome in the West Sudetes (Poland) show a local continuous transition from weakly deformed augen gneisses to finely laminated mylonites. Field evidence indicates that ductile shearing developed pre- or syntectonically to a migmatization event. Bulk-rock compositions of variably deformed samples yield no indications for deformation- and/or fluid-enhanced element mobility and redistribution. ⁸⁷Rb-⁸⁶Sr geochronology (biotite, phengite, whole rock) places time constraints on the deformation process and the post-orogenic cooling history. Phengite- and biotite-whole-rock pairs yield Rb-Sr ages of 340 to 334 Ma and 335 to 294 Ma, respectively, independent of the degree of deformation. The weighted mean of phengite-whole-rock pairs indicates an age of 337.4DŽ.3 Ma. Combining most of the biotite-whole-rock data yields a weighted mean age of 328.6dž.4 Ma. Because of their different closure temperatures for the Rb-Sr system, these differences are interpreted to date cooling after a thermal event. Direct dating of the deformation is not possible, but the cooling history record defines a minimum age for the development of ductile shearing and the last migmatization event. These time constraints provide evidence for the initiation of crustal collapse during or immediately following peak metamorphic conditions. The results of this study further document the importance of Variscan metamorphism in the Orlica-vnie™nik dome.     

Influence of gold mine on groundwater quality (Efemçukuru, Izmir, Turkey)

. Currently, exploration of gold ores is under discussion in Turkey, without considering its adverse affect on the environment. Studying the adverse affect on environment is extremely important because significant civic activities are already taking place on the geological units that contain gold ore bodies in Turkey. Such an area is located at the southeast of Izmir City (Turkey), and approximately 2-km-long gold-bearing ore veins occur close to the Efemçukuru Village. The objective of this study was to describe the characteristics and seasonal variation of the groundwater chemistry and pollution of the aquifer in the ore deposit site, and to determine the impact of ore deposits on groundwater quality. The gold-bearing formation is highly weathered and fractured. The fractures in the geological units control the permeability and the depth of groundwater in the area. The concentrations of Al, Ag, Cu, Cd, Cr, Fe, Pb, Mn, Zn, Ni, and Sb were determined for four well samples and two stream waters for wet and dry seasons. The results showed that the concentrations of most of these elements were below the USA EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) limits; however, Pb and Cd concentrations are slightly above the limits. The results indicate that minerals in gold bodies do not dissolve although the weathering of formations is high. The low concentration of elements in groundwater and streams may be attributed to the high velocity of ground and surface water.