Is the Greenland Ice Sheet in a state of collapse?

The Greenland Ice Sheet is thinning at an accelerating pace and the ice sheet's contribution to sea-level rise has doubled in less than a decade. New data show rapid and widespread changes in the behaviour of the ice sheet, particularly along the coastal margin. These changes coincide with a decade of sustained Arctic warming of up to 3 °C. Decay of the Greenland Ice Sheet in response to global warming will not only be governed by increased surface melting during longer and warmer summers but also by a speed-up of coastal glaciers that drain the interior ice sheet. A precise estimate of sea-level rise in the twenty-first century relies on improved theoretical treatment of these glaciers in computer models.     

Influence of oxygen fugacity on mineral compositions in peralkaline melts: The Katzenbuckel volcano, Southwest Germany

The igneous rocks of the Katzenbuckel, Southwest Germany, represent a unique and unusual alkaline to peralkaline association within the European Volcanic Province. The magmatic activity can be subdivided into two main phases. Phase I comprises the main rock bodies of phonolite and nepheline syenite, which were later intruded by different peralkaline dyke rocks (tinguaites and alkali feldspar syenite dykes) of phase II. The dyke assemblage was accompanied by magnetite and apatite veins and was followed by a late-stage pneumatolytic activity causing autometasomatic alterations.

As is typical for alkaline to peralkaline igneous rocks, early mafic minerals of phase I rocks comprise olivine, augite and Fe–Ti oxides, which are substituted in the course of fractionation by Na-amphibole and Na-pyroxene. For the early magmatic stage, calculated temperatures range between 880 and 780 °C with low silica activities (0.4 to 0.6) but high relative oxygen fugacities between 0.5 and 1.9 log units above the FMQ buffer. Even higher oxygen fugacities (above the HM buffer) are indicated for the autometasomatic alteration, which occurred at temperatures between 585 and 780 °C and resulted in the formation of pseudobrookite and hematite.

The unusually high oxygen fugacities (even during the early magmatic stage) are recorded by the major element compositions of the mafic minerals (forsterite content in olivine between 68 and 78 mol%, up to 6.2 wt.% ZrO₂ and 8.5 wt.% TiO₂ in clinopyroxene), the unusual mineral assemblages (pseudobrookite, freudenbergite) and by the enrichment of Fe³⁺ in the felsic minerals (up to 2.8 wt.% Fe₂O₃ in alkali feldspar and up to 2.6 wt.% Fe₂O₃ in nepheline). These observations point to a metasomatically enriched and highly oxidized lithospheric mantle as a major source for the Katzenbuckel melts.     

New Generation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Area Cologne/Aachen Considering the Uncertainties of the Input Data

A new earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe with unified M_w magnitudes, in part derived from chi-square maximum likelihood regressions, forms the basis for seismic hazard calculations for the Lower Rhine Embayment. Uncertainties in the various input parameters are introduced, a detailed seismic zonation is performed and a recently developed technique for maximum expected magnitude estimation is adopted and quantified. Applying the logic tree algorithm, resulting hazard values with error estimates are obtained as fractile curves (median, 16% and 84% fractiles and mean) plotted for pga (peak ground acceleration; median values for Cologne 0.7 and 1.2 m/s² for probabilities of exceedence of 10% and 2%, respectively, in 50 years), 0.4 s (0.8 and 1.5 m/s²) and 1.0 s (0.3 and 0.5 m/s²) pseudoacclerations, and intensity (I₀ = 6.5 and 7.2). For the ground motion parameters, rock foundation is assumed. For the area near Cologne and Aachen, maps show the median and 84% fractile hazard for 2% probability of exceedence in 50 years based on pga (maximum median value about 1.5 m/s²), and 0.4 s (>2 m/s²) and 1.0 s (about 0.8 m/s²) pseudoaccelerations, all for rock. The pga 84% fractile map also has a maximum value above 2 m/s² and shows similarities with the median map for 0.4 s. In all maps, the maximum values fall within the area 6.2–6.3° E and 50.8–50.9° N, i.e., east of Aachen.     

U–Pb and Hf isotopic analysis of zircon in lower crustal xenoliths from the Navajo volcanic field: 1.4 Ga mafic magmatism and metamorphism beneath the Colorado Plateau

Zircon from lower crustal xenoliths erupted in the Navajo volcanic field was analyzed for U–Pb and Lu–Hf isotopic compositions to characterize the lower crust beneath the Colorado Plateau and to determine whether it was affected by ∼1.4 Ga granitic magmatism and metamorphism that profoundly affected the exposed middle crust of southwestern Laurentia. Igneous zircon in felsic xenoliths crystallized at 1.73 and 1.65 Ga, and igneous zircon in mafic xenoliths crystallized at 1.43 Ga. Most igneous zircon has unradiogenic initial Hf isotopic compositions (ɛ_Hf=+4.1–+7.8) and 1.7–1.6 Ga depleted mantle model ages, consistent with 1.7–1.6 Ga felsic protoliths being derived from “juvenile” Proterozoic crust and 1.4 Ga mafic protoliths having interacted with older crust. Metamorphic zircon grew in four pulses between 1.42 and 1.36 Ga, at least one of which was at granulite facies. Significant variability within and between xenoliths in metamorphic zircon initial Hf isotopic compositions (ɛ_Hf=−0.7 to +13.6) indicates growth from different aged sources with diverse time-integrated Lu/Hf ratios. These results show a strong link between 1.4 Ga mafic magmatism and granulite facies metamorphism in the lower crust and granitic magmatism and metamorphism in the exposed middle crust.     

Palaeovariations in the East-Asian Monsoon Regime Geochemically Recorded in Varved Sediments of Lake Sihailongwan (Northeast China, Jilin Province). Part 2: a 200-Year Record of Atmospheric Lead-210 Flux Variations and its Palaeoclimatic Implications

Palaeovariations of the atmospheric ²¹⁰Pb flux in Northeast China (Long Gang area, Jilin province), quantified by high resolution ²¹⁰Pb measurements on seasonally laminated sediments of Lake Sihailongwan are presented on decadal scale. The mean flux of unsupported ²¹⁰Pb between 1790 and 1970 for the centre of the lake basin is 517 Bq m⁻² yr⁻¹ with maximum deviations between −23% and +27% of this value. Flux rates above this average were found between 1783 and 1813, around 1836, and between 1860 and 1901. The mean ²¹⁰Pb^exc flux rates derived were clearly lower around 1821, 1908, 1930, and 1953. The ²¹⁰Pb^exc flux reached its minimum of 344 Bq m⁻² yr⁻¹ during the period 1977–1982. The atmospheric flux of unsupported ²¹⁰Pb is correlated with the precipitation frequency during the summer monsoon and shows coinciding variability with geochemical proxies that document the groundwater inflow into the lake. Al₂O₃-rich dust of remote provenance scavenged by wet-deposition in the rainy season is the major carrier of the atmospheric ²¹⁰Pb^exc flux.     

Results from a Multi-disciplinary Sedimentary Pilot Study of Tectonic Lake Iznik (NW Turkey) – Geochemistry and Paleolimnology of the Recent Past

A limnogeological reconnaissance study was carried out on Lake Iznik, located in the southeast of the Marmara region of Turkey, involving a seismic survey and collection of short sediment cores. This lake is located on the middle branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), a transform plate boundary between the Eurasian and Anatolian Plates. It is, therefore, tectonically active and offers an opportunity to investigate the interplay of sedimentary and seismo-tectonic processes, as well as climate change and human impact in the region. Short cores of the three sub-basins, maximum length of 35.5 cm, recovered non-laminated, blackish clays and silts with varying amounts of biogenic and minerogenic (allochthonous, autochthonous) material, which documented almost the last 80 years of deposition and environmental history. High sedimentation rates in the deeper core sections are accompanied by changes in land use (conversion of woodland to farmland) in the northern areas of Lake Iznik, which caused the deposition of more weathered material (high K/Na ratios) and higher contents of Mn in the lake. A tendency towards eutrophic conditions within the last 20 years is indicated by high nutrient content (N, TOC, P), decreasing C/N-ratios, and characteristic diatom and cladoceran associations. Also increased pollution is revealed by higher Pb, Cu, and Zn contents and increased supply of human and animal faeces (high coprostanol content) during the last two decades. But simultaneous lower sedimentation rates towards the core tops complicate the reconstruction of recent and past eutrophication and pollution states of Lake Iznik. This requires an extension of the pilot study and deeper sediment cores, to recover non-anthropogenic influenced sediment levels.     

The effects of hazard zone information on judgements about earthquake damage

This study investigates the extent to which people's views on the causes and preventability of earthquake damage might be influenced by their degree of exposure to hazard as well as what information they have been given about the hazard. The results show that the provision of hazard zoning information influences judgements on preventability and causes of damage, but this effect depends on the degree of hazard faced by residents. In low hazard zones, information leads to the view that causes are manageable, whereas in high hazard zones information may induce a degree of fatalism. The use of public information in risk management needs to take into account the degree of risk faced by the recipients.