Flood Forecasting and Warning at the River Basin and at the European Scale

Application of recent advances in numerical weather prediction (NWP) has the potential of allowing delivery of flood warning to extend well beyond the typical lead times of operational flood warning at the river basin scale. A prototype system, a European Flood Forecasting System (EFFS) developed to deliver such pre-warnings, aiming at providing a pre-warning at lead times of between 5 and 10 days is described. Considerable uncertainty in the weather forecast at these lead times, however, means that resulting forecasts must be treated probabilistically, and although probabilistic forecasts may be easy to disseminate, these are difficult to understand. This paper explores the structure of operational flood warning, and shows that integration in the flood warning process is required if the pre-warning is to fulfil its potential. A simple method of summarising the information in the pre-warning is presented, and the system in hindcast mode is shown to give clear indication of an upcoming major event in the Rhine basin up to 10 days before the actual event. Finally recommendations on the use of data assimilation to embed the EFFS system within an operational environment are given.     

Monitoring changes in shoreline position adjacent to the Hadera power station, Israel

The paper focuses on the shoreline changes following the construction of a power station cooling harbor in Hadera, Israel, and uses a statistical analysis method capable of mitigating the effect of short-term changes on the measurement of long-term changes. The changes in shoreline position detected 25 years after the harbor's construction were compared with forecasts of the Central Lab for Hydraulics of France (LCHF) in 1976, which correctly predicted the effects of the construction on the nearby coast and with studies conducted a few years after the construction. A comparison between later studies and the study described herein shows a spatial effect of the harbor on shoreline position of 750 m north of the northern breakwater. No effect was found south of the harbor. The harbor's temporal effects extend over a few years from the beginning of the construction until the coast reaches a new sedimentary equilibrium. The statistical analysis method employed was found useful for the detection of long-term changes in shoreline position such as those caused by the construction of coastal structures; it will not be suitable for the detection of long-term changes resulting from a rise in sea-level.     

Résultats préliminaires d'études sur des méthodes de détermination de l'âge individuel par l'histologie chez quelques Téléostéens

The study discusses the potential of various histological methods for enhancing the readability of the lines of arrested growth (LAC, annuli) in different bony elements, particularly fin rays, of some freshwater fish species.      

Origin and post-glacial evolution of surface cracks: A case study from the area of the Last Glaciation,north-eastern Poland

The analysis of LiDAR-based digital elevation models revealed the existence of groups of longitudinal fractures in the ground in northern Poland at the limit of the ice sheet's extent during its last maximum. Our research on the closed elongated depressions (CEDs) of the Jedwabno test field (Szuć site, north-east Poland) focuses on explaining their origins and their post-glacial history. This region was covered by an ice sheet and glacitectonically active during the Vistulian, and at least some surface fractures are possible witnesses to this activity. Using geomorphological mapping, sedimentological and geophysical research, we assumed it was related that the origin of these features here is associated with groundwater migration at the end of the Vistulian glaciation or later when groundwater flow intensified due to a rapid climate warming that caused permafrost to melt. The thawing of permafrost caused to transition from continuous permafrost to discontinuous, which in turn created groundwater flow that was probably responsible for the development of the surface cracks (fractures). Radiocarbon, palaeobiological (pollen, Cladocera) and geochemical studies allowed for an estimation of the formation time of these unique surface cracks in the Older Dryas. Prevailing conditions were also reconstructed for the later dynamic changes of the end of the Late Vistulian glaciation and in the Late Holocene until the Subatlantic Period (Megalayan stage). The surface cracks with steep slopes, despite their small area, are extraordinary sedimentation traps that have, in a special way, retained an almost complete record of the environmental and climate changes of the Late Glacial. There are sedimentological gaps in the Holocene, especially after the Preboreal (old part of the Greenlandian Stage), caused by changes in water levels, aeolian processes and human activity.     

A dendroclimatological study of east- and west-facing slopes in mountainous areas subjected to strong air pollution (the Sudetes,Central Europe)

The Sudetes Mountains (Central Europe) were under a particularly intense long-term air pollution load during the 1970s and 1980s. Intense industrial activity in this area led to large-scale forest dieback and reductions in tree growth rates, potentially limiting the use of tree-ring data from this region in dendroclimatic research. In this paper, ring-width chronologies were constructed for 493 Norway spruce trees (Picea abies L. Karst.) from 17 sampling sites within five major mountain ranges in the Sudetes Mountains of Poland. Growth-climate response data indicate that April?July temperatures are the main factor affecting radial growth of trees in the study area. Our data also indicate the strong influence of slope aspect on temperature signal strength. The lowest correlation values were obtained for sites located on western slopes with effective fog deposition, which are strongly affected by pollution. An appropriate sampling strategy resulted in the creation of a temperature-sensitive proxy record (rAMJJ = 0.70), exceptional for areas under strong pressure from human activity. Based on a regional master chronology, growing season (April?July) temperatures over the past 200 years were then reconstructed. Four warm and four cold periods were distinguished and compared with other reconstructions and long-term instrumental data.     

High-resolution computed microtomography for the characterization of a diffusion tensor imaging phantom

This paper addresses the issue of the quantitative characterization of the structure of the calibration model (phantom) for b-matrix spatial distribution diffusion tensor imaging (BSD-DTI) scanners. The aim of this study was to verify manufacturing assumptions of the structure of materials, since phantoms are used for BSD-DTI calibration directly after manufacturing. Visualization of the phantoms’ structure was achieved through optical microscopy and high-resolution computed microtomography (µCT). Using µCT images, a numerical model of the materials structure was developed for further quantitative analysis. 3D image characterization was performed to determine crucial structural parameters of the phantom: porosity, uniformity and distribution of equivalent diameter of capillary bundles. Additionally calculations of hypothetical flow streamlines were also performed based on the numerical model that was developed. The results obtained in this study can be used in the calibration of DTI-BST measurements. However, it was found that the structure of the phantom exhibits flaws and discrepancies from the assumed geometry which might affect BSD-DTI calibration.     

Anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility as an indicator for palaeocurrent analysis in folded turbidites (Outer Western Carpathians,Poland)

The anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility is a well-known geological proxy in revealing the directional tectonic and sedimentological features of rocks, although it can be ambiguous in situations where these two factors co-occur. This paper demonstrates the usefulness of the anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility in determining palaeotransport directions in turbiditic rocks that underwent subsequent thrusting and folding. This study demonstrates that the magnetic lineation is largely unsuitable as a palaeocurrent direction proxy, and suggests that the imbrication of magnetic foliation is better in such cases. Moreover, the anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility results were analyzed in reference to a joint and fold study within the framework of the regional structural geology. Magnetic fabric investigations were conducted in the eastern part of the Outer Western Carpathians (south-east Poland). During the study, a total of 191 oriented palaeomagnetic samples were collected from three outcrops (Nasiczne, Dwernik and Hoczew) in the Krosno Beds, Silesian Unit. For the purpose of sedimentological analysis, 121 m of turbidite successions were documented and 126 directional sedimentary structures were measured. The magnetic anisotropy of sandstones revealed typical sedimentary fabrics, often overprinted by variably intense tectonic deformation. Oblate susceptibility ellipsoids from Nasiczne showed tilt coherent with the palaeoflow direction, whereas the rocks from Dwernik and Hoczew contained triaxial magnetic fabric developed during compressional palaeostress. This paper suggests that medium-grained and coarse-grained sandstones, preferably with high mica content, are the most suitable for palaeotransport reconstructions among the studied lithologies.     

Energy conditions and inhomogeneities in the Universe

The so-called dominant energy condition and the strong energy condition (of singularity theorems) cannot be violated by the negative effective ‘pressure’ arising from the inhomogeneous distribution of matter in the Universe.     

Measurement of a Peak in the Cosmic Microwave Background Power Spectrum from the North American Test Flight of Boomerang

We describe a measurement of the angular power spectrum of anisotropies in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) at scales of 0&fdg;3 to 5 degrees from the North American test flight of the Boomerang experiment. Boomerang is a balloon-borne telescope with a bolometric receiver designed to map CMB anisotropies on a long-duration balloon flight. During a 6 hr test flight of a prototype system in 1997, we mapped more than 200 deg(2) at high Galactic latitudes in two bands centered at 90 and 150 GHz with a resolution of 26&arcmin; and 16&farcm;5 FWHM, respectively. Analysis of the maps gives a power spectrum with a peak at angular scales of 1 degrees with an amplitude 70 μK(CMB).