Combined analysis of precipitation and water deficit for drought hazard assessment

Abstract

The combined analysis of precipitation and water scarcity was done with the use of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), developed as a monthly, two-variable SPI-SRI indicator to identify different classes of hydrometeorological conditions. Stochastic analysis of a long-term time series (1966–2005) of monthly SPI-SRI indicator values was performed using a first-order Markov chain model. This provided characteristics of regional features of drought formation, evolution and persistence, as well as tools for statistical long-term drought hazard prediction. The study was carried out on two subbasins of the Odra River (Poland) of different orography and land use: the mountainous Nysa K?odzka basin and the lowland, agricultural Prosna basin. Classification obtained with the SPI-SRI indicator was compared with the output from the NIZOWKA model that provided identification of hydrological drought events including drought duration and deficit volume. Severe and long-duration droughts corresponded to SPI-SRI Class 3 (dry meteorological and dry hydrological), while severe but short-term droughts (lasting less than 30 days) corresponded to SPI-SRI Class 4 (wet meteorological and dry hydrological). The results confirm that, in Poland, meteorologically dry conditions often shift to hydrologically dry conditions within the same month, droughts rarely last longer than 2 months and two separate drought events can be observed within the same year.     

Preliminary Results of Anthropogenic Seismicity Monitoring in the Region of Song Tranh 2 Reservoir,Central Vietnam

Song Tranh 2 hydropower plant and the reservoir containing backed up water are located in the Quang Nam province (Central Vietnam). The region experiences unusual seismic activity related to the reservoir impoundment, with earthquakes of magnitude up to 4.7. In result of cooperation between the Institute of Geophysics, Vietnam Academy of Sciences and Technology and the Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences a seismic network has been built to facilitate seismic monitoring of the Song Tranh 2 area. The network, operating since August 2013, consists of 10 seismic stations. Here we show that the network is sufficient for advanced data processing. The first results of monitoring of the earthquake activity in Song Tranh 2 area in the period between 2012 and 2014, especially the completeness of catalogs, study and comparisons between water level and the seismic activity suggest direct connection between reservoir exploitation and anthropogenic seismicity.     

Angular Distributions of Discrete Mesoscale Mapping Functions

The paper presents the results of analyses of numerical experiments concerning GPS signal propagation delays in the atmosphere and the discrete mapping functions defined on their basis. The delays were determined using data from the mesoscale non-hydrostatic weather model operated in the Centre of Applied Geomatics, Military University of Technology. A special attention was paid to investigating angular characteristics of GPS slant delays for low angles of elevation. The investigation proved that the temporal and spatial variability of the slant delays depends to a large extent on current weather conditions.     

A modelling of effects of variable saturation in invaded zone near borehole on neutron tool response in the gas-bearing Miocene formations of the Carpathian foredeep,Poland

Invasion of mud filtrate from the borehole into the surrounding formation can significantly alter the response of logging tools.In this paper the neutron tool response was calculated for a gas-bearing rock crossed by the borehole.The invaded zone is characterized by variable fluid and gas saturation and is defined by a specific hyperbolic function. The saturation function is based on the characteristics of Polish Carpathian Foredeep Miocene formations reached in gas-bearing rocks. The whole system including neutron tool equipped with Am-Be neutron source and a set of neutron detectors, borehole, invaded zone, and virgin zone, was numerically modeled and used as the input to the Monte-Carlo neutron transport code. The response of each detector was calculated for different combinations of porosity and saturation of invaded zone and virgin zone.     

Effects of Oxbow Reconnection Based on the Distribution and Structure of Benthic Macroinvertebrates

This study focuses on the assessment of relationships between flow and macrozoobenthos structure that was performed in a reconnected oxbow lake located in the S?upia River floodplain (northern Poland). The lake was created during river straightening at the beginning of 20th century by cutting off the right‐bank meander. The oxbow restoration was performed to enhance the ecological viability of this water body and restore riverine wetland. In July 2000 the oxbow was connected with the river channel through PVC pipes which enabled free water movement. Macrozoobenthos sampling, as well as chemical analyses of water and hydrological measurements, took place both before and after the oxbow reconnection. Before the oxbow reconnection, the dominant species was Asellus aquaticus, whereas after the reconnection the structure of benthic species changed significantly. During the first year it was replaced by bivalves and Chironomidae larvae and then A. aquaticus. After the reconnection, macrozoobenthos mean density was 5‐fold higher and the mean wet biomass was 77‐fold higher than before the reconnection. The number of taxa increased from 4 before the oxbow reconnection to 17 during the first year after the performed works and 20 in the next year. We stated that the revitalization process of the reconnected oxbow lake has long‐term consequences for the benthic communities. The most significant feature of the oxbow reconnection is the qualitative and quantitative recolonization by riverine macrozoobenthos species. The performed restoration significantly improved ecological status of the oxbow lake by the increase in biodiversity and water quality.     

New induction sounding tested in Central Europe

The hourly data of nine geomagnetic observatories situated in Central Europe have been analyzed using the generalized magnetovariation (GMV) method designed recently for induction soundings of inhomogeneous media. In this method, impedance is one of transfer functions in the differential relation between spectra of the magnetic components and their derivatives. The peculiarity of this impedance is its correspondence to the magnetotelluric one estimated from the linear relations. Three transfer functions have been estimated simultaneously for data of geomagnetic observatories, using three different routines working in the period range from three hours up to two days. Noises in the source field components have been compared with noise in the estimated plane field divergence. The multivariate errors-in-variables method was used to extract spatially and temporally coherent geomagnetic field structure from the partially incoherent geomagnetic variations. This method allows estimating reliably impedances and gradient tippers for each observatory, taking into consideration the Earth’s sphericity. The obtained responses have been used for induction soundings and for detecting a deep inhomogeneity in the region.