Earth rotation in the hipparcos reference frame

New determination of the Earth orientation parameters (EOP), based on optical astrometry observations since the beginning of the century, is now under preparation by the Working group established by Commission 19 of the IAU. The Hipparcos catalog is to define the celestial reference frame in which the new series of EOP are to be described, The novelties of the prepared solution are the higher resolution (5 days) and more parameters estimated from the solution (celestial pole offsets, rheological parameters of the Earth, certain instrumental constants). The mathematical model of the solution is described, and the results based on the observations made with 46 instruments at 29 observatories and a preliminary Hipparcos catalog are presented.     

Evidence of NW extension of the North Anatolian Fault Zone in the Marmara Sea: a new interpretation of the Marmara Sea (İzmit) earthquake on 17 August 1999

Active faults aligning in NW–SE direction and forming flower structures of strike-slip faults were observed in shallow seismic data from the shelf offshore of Avc?lar in the northern Marmara Sea. By following the parallel drainage pattern and scarps, these faults were traced as NW–SE-directed lineaments in the morphology of the northern onshore sector of the Marmara Sea (eastern Thrace Peninsula). Right-lateral displacements in two watersheds of drainage and on the coast of the Marmara Sea and Black Sea are associated with these lineaments. This right-lateral displacement along the course of these faults suggests a new, active strike-slip fault zone located at the NW extension of the northern boundary fault of the Ç?narc?k Basin in the Marmara Sea. This new fault zone is interpreted as the NW extension of the northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), extending from the Ç?narc?k Basin of the Marmara Sea to the Black Sea coast of the Thrace Peninsula, and passing through B üy ük çekmece and K ü ç ük çekmece lagoons. These data suggest that the rupture of the 17 August 1999 earthquake in the NAFZ may have extended through Avc?lar. Indeed, Avc?lar and ?zmit, both located on the Marmara Sea coast along the rupture route, were strongly struck by the earthquake whereas the settlements between Avc?lar and ?zmit were much less affected. Therefore, this interpretation can explain the extraordinary damage in Avc?lar, based on the newly discovered rupture of the NAFZ in the Marmara Sea. However, this suggestion needs to be confirmed by further seismological studies.     

Neural network and wavelet conjunction model for modelling monthly level fluctuations in Turkey

This paper proposes the application of a conjunction model (neuro‐wavelet) for forecasting monthly lake levels. The neuro‐wavelet (NW) conjunction model is improved combining two methods, discrete wavelet transform and artificial neural networks. The application of the methodology is presented for the Lake Van, which is the biggest lake in Turkey, and Lake Egirdir. The accuracy of the NW model is investigated for 1‐ and 6‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting. The root mean square errors, mean absolute relative errors and determination coefficient statistics are used for evaluating the accuracy of NW models. The results of the proposed models are compared with those of the neural networks. In the 1‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting, the NW conjunction model reduced the root mean square errors and mean absolute relative errors by 87–34% and 86–31% for the Van and Egirdir lakes, respectively. In the 6‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting, the NW conjunction model reduced the root mean square errors and mean absolute relative errors by 34–48% and 30‐46% for the Van and Egirdir lakes, respectively. The comparison results indicate that the suggested model could significantly increase the short‐ and long‐term forecast accuracy. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Anomalous X-ray pulsars: persistent states with fallback disks

The anomalous X-ray pulsar 4U 0142+61 was recently detected in the mid infrared bands with the SPITZER Observatory (Wang, Chakrabarty and Kaplan: Nature 440, 772 (2006)). This observation is the first instance for a disk around an AXP. From a reanalysis of optical and infrared data, we show that the observations indicate that the disk is likely to be an active disk rather than a passive dust disk beyond the light cylinder, as proposed in the discovering paper. Furthermore, we show that the irradiated accretion disk model can also account for all the optical and infrared observations of the anomalous X-ray pulsars in the persistent state.     

Mean surface brightness as a criterion for or against the expansion of the Universe

Using the well-known relation for the mean surface brightness, the author gives the concept of the decision regarding the expansion of the Universe. The most serious obstacle on this way was the low precision of parameter measurements which one could achieve in the past. This paper brings the first step for eventual judgement if the Universe expand or not because the accuracy of measurements has advanced. In this sence, we need some more determinations with present accuracy to give the decisive result because the mean surface brightness must faint by 1.46 mag per square arc sec for red shift of 0.4, and this is sufficient to measure and statistically elaborate it.     

Polar 5—an electron accelerator experiment within an aurora. 4. Measurements of the 391.4 nm light produced by an artificial electron beam in the upper atmosphere

The POLAR 5 sounding rocket, launched from Andøya, Norway, on February 1, 1976, was of the “mother-daughter” configuration.A rocket-borne electron accelerator, mounted on the “daughter,” produced a pulsed electron beam with a maximum current of 130 mA and electron energies up to 10 kev.Using a photometer the luminescence at 391.4nm produced by electrons colliding with ambient nitrogen molecules was studied. The observed light at 391.4 nm consisted of low background, with occasional flashes due to the natural auroral excitations, and intense sparkles when the electron beam was emitted.Below 130 km the light observed during beam injection can be explained by excitations of ambient N₂ due to high energy beam electrons.In the altitude range from 150 km to apogee at 220 km, the observed light level during beam emission is fairly constant and much larger than that produced by the high energy beam electrons. A possible source of this light is the excitation of ambient N₂ by an enhanced population of low energy electrons, created by the presence of a beam plasma discharge in the vicinity of the “daughter” payload.     

The study of hydrodynamic behaviour of a complex karst system under low-flow conditions using natural and artificial tracers (the catchment of the Unica River,SW Slovenia)

In this study a multi-tracer test with fluorescent tracers was combined with time series analyses of natural tracers to characterize the dynamics of the solute transport through different recharge pathways and to study hydraulic behaviour of a binary karst system under low-flow conditions. Fluorescent tracer testing included the introduction of uranine, amidorhodamine G, or naphthionate at three injection points. Sampling and monitoring took place at two karst springs (Malenščica, Unica) and at two underground rivers (Pivka, Rak) recharging the Unica River at the Polje of Planina, SW Slovenia. Other monitored parameters included precipitation, spring or underground river discharge, water temperature, and electrical conductivity. Water samples were collected and analyzed for total organic carbon, Mg²⁺, SO₄ ²⁻, and NO₃ ⁻ in the laboratory. In the study area, results of the tracer test suggest that contaminant transport in karst may be retarded for several weeks during low-flow conditions followed by increases in contaminant concentrations after subsequent rainfall events. Based on interpretation of tracer concentration breakthrough curves, low apparent dominant flow velocities (i.e., between 5.8 and 22.8 m/h through the well developed karst conduits, and 3.6 m/h through the prevailing vadose zone with a dominant influence of a diffuse recharge) were obtained. Together with analyses of hydro-chemographs the artificial tracing identified different origins of water recharging the studied aquifer. During prolonged low-water conditions the Malenščica spring is mainly recharged from the karst aquifer and the Unica spring by the sinking Pivka River. After more intensive rainfall events allogenic recharge from Cerknica prevails in the Malenščica spring, while the Unica spring drains mainly the allogenic water from the Pivka Valley. These findings of alternating hydraulic connections and drainage areas due to respective hydrological conditions are important and should be considered when monitoring water quality, implementing groundwater protection measures, and optimizing future water exploitation.