Observed trends and relationships between ENSO and standardized hydrometeorological drought indices in central Chile

Droughts are natural phenomena that severely affect socio economic and ecological systems. In Chile, population and economic activities are highly concentrated in its central region (i.e. between latitudes 29°S and 40°S), which periodically suffers from severe droughts affecting agriculture, hydropower, and mining. Understanding the dynamics of droughts and large-scale atmospheric processes that influence the occurrence of dry spells is essential for forecasting and efficient early detection of drought events. Central Chile's climate is marked by a significant El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence that might help to better characterize droughts as well as to identify the effects of ENSO on the spatial and temporal characteristics of meteorological and hydrological droughts in the region. We analysed the behaviour of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) time series for 6-month accumulation periods over the austral winter and summer seasons. Multiple linear regression (MLR) and Generalized Linear Models (GLM) showed a significant ENSO influence on dry events for SPEI-6 and SSI-6 during winter and summer. We found that the magnitude of correlation between ENSO and SPEI-6 has changed over the last decades becoming weaker in winter periods and increasing in spring summer periods. Increasing trends in meteorological and hydrological drought events were also identified, along all latitudes, with significant trends during winter in the southern latitudes, and during summer in the semi-arid and Mediterranean zones. These results indicate that drought mitigation actions and policies are necessary to overcome their adverse effects. Given the monthly persistence of ENSO and its relationship to drought indices, there are opportunities for drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting that could become part of national drought management systems.     

Monitoring pesticides in the Great Barrier Reef

Pesticide runoff from agriculture poses a threat to water quality in the world heritage listed Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and sensitive monitoring tools are needed to detect these pollutants. This study investigated the utility of passive samplers in this role through deployment during a wet and dry season at river mouths, two near-shore regions and an offshore region. The nearshore marine environment was shown to be contaminated with pesticides in both the dry and wet seasons (average water concentrations of 1.3-3.8 ng L⁻¹ and 2.2-6.4 ng L⁻¹, respectively), while no pesticides were detected further offshore. Continuous monitoring of two rivers over 13 months showed waters flowing to the GBR were contaminated with herbicides (diuron, atrazine, hexazinone) year round, with highest average concentrations present during summer (350 ng L⁻¹). The use of passive samplers has enabled identification of insecticides in GBR waters which have not been reported in the literature previously.     

Diatom assemblage dynamics during abrupt climate change: the response of lacustrine diatoms to Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles during the last glacial period

The sedimentary record from the paleolake at Les Echets in eastern France allowed a reconstruction of the lacustrine response to several abrupt climate shifts during the last glacial period referred to as Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) cycles. The high-resolution diatom stratigraphy has revealed distinct species turnover events and large fluctuations in stable oxygen isotope values in diatom frustules, as a response to DO climate variability. More or less identical species compositions became re-established during each DO stadial and interstadial phases, respectively. However, the relative abundance of the most dominant species within these assemblages varies and might indicate differences in climatic conditions. Interstadial phases are characterized by identical species successions. Transitions from stadial to interstadial conditions show a distinct Fragilaria–Cyclotella succession, which resembles the diatom regime shifts that have been recognized in some lakes in the Northern Hemisphere since the mid-nineteenth century.     

Long term monitoring of photosystem II herbicides--correlation with remotely sensed freshwater extent to monitor changes in the quality of water entering the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

Photosystem II (PSII) herbicides are used in large quantities on agricultural lands adjoining the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Routine monitoring at 14 sites in inshore waters of the GBR using passive sampling techniques detected diuron (32-94% of sampling periods) at maximum concentrations of 1.7-430ng L(-1) in the relatively pristine Cape York Region to the Mackay Whitsunday Region, respectively. A PSII herbicide equivalent (PSII-HEq) index developed as an indicator for reporting was dominated by diuron (average contribution 89%) and typically increased during the wet season. The maximum PSII-HEq indicates the potential for photosynthetic inhibition of diatoms, seagrass and coral-symbionts. PSII herbicides were significantly positively correlated with remotely sensed coloured dissolved organic matter, a proxy for freshwater extent. Combining these methods provides for the first time the potential to cost-effectively monitor improvements in water quality entering the GBR with respect to exposure to PSII herbicides.     

Quantifying uncertainty in rainfall–runoff models due to design losses using Monte Carlo simulation: a case study in New South Wales,Australia

With the potentially devastating consequences of flooding, it is crucial that uncertainties in the modelling process are quantified in flood simulations. In this paper, the impact of uncertainties in design losses on peak flow estimates is investigated. Simulations were carried out using a conceptual rainfall–runoff model called RORB in four catchments along the east coast of New South Wales, Australia. Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate parameter uncertainty in design losses, associated with three loss models (initial loss–continuing loss, initial loss–proportional loss and soil water balance model). The results show that the uncertainty originating from each loss model differs and can be quite significant in some cases. The uncertainty in the initial loss–proportional loss model was found to be the highest, with estimates up to 2.2 times the peak flow, whilst the uncertainty in the soil water balance model was significantly less, with up to 60 % variability in peak flows for an annual exceedance probability of 0.02. Through applying Monte Carlo simulation a better understanding of the predicted flows is achieved, thus providing further support for planning and managing river systems.     

Oxygen isotope analysis of diatom silica and authigenic calcite from Lake Pinarbasi, Turkey

There is increasing interest in the ¹⁸O/¹⁶O ratio of diatom silica, particularly for lakes where carbonates are absent. Here we compare the ¹⁸O/¹⁶O ratios preserved in diatom silica and authigenic calcite from an open, spring-fed, freshwater lake core from Turkey which spans marine oxygen isotope stage 3. The two sets of isotope data show contrasting trends in spite of their mutual dependence on the water ¹⁸O/¹⁶O ratio and lake-water temperature. The most likely explanation for this divergence is difference in seasonality of biological productivity mediated by the strongly continental climate of the Anatolian plateau. Diatom silica and authigenic calcite are precipitated from solutes in the lake-water at different times of the year. Diatom productivity follows a well-defined seasonal cycle, peaking first and most importantly in the spring and then in the autumn. The precipitation of calcite follows productivity by all forms of photosynthetic organisms that deplete CO₂ but in most lakes this occurs during the summer months. The ¹⁸O_calcite curve shows mean summer temperature maxima at ca. 30–35 and ca. 58 ka BP while the intervening data represent a period of relatively cool summers. The ¹⁸O_diatom curve shows bipolar results (15–20 and 29–33), which suggests that at least two discrete sources or processes contributed to the oxygen composition of the diatoms but probably involved a dilution mechanism to shift the isotopic values. The most likely source of depleted water is from snow entering the lake during the spring thaw. We infer that many authigenic calcite curves from regions with markedly seasonal climates may be temporally limited to a few summer months and that diatom silica provides complementary data on seasonally-specific water isotopic composition rather than a substitute for analyses based on carbonate.     

Predictions of hydrothermal alteration within near-ridge oceanic crust from coordinated geochemical and fluid flow models

Coordinated geochemical and hydrological calculations guide our understanding of the composition, fluid flow patterns, and thermal structure of near-ridge oceanic crust. The case study presented here illustrates geochemical and thermal changes taking place as oceanic crust ages from 0.2 to 1.0 Myr. Using a finite element code, we model fluid flow and heat transport through the upper few hundred meters of an abyssal hill created at an intermediate spreading rate. We use a reaction path model with a customized database to calculate equilibrium fluid compositions and mineral assemblages of basalt and seawater at 500 bars and temperatures ranging from 150 to 400°C. In one scenario, reaction path calculations suggest that volume increases on the order of 10% may occur within portions of the basaltic basement. If this change in volume occurred, it would be sufficient to fill all primary porosity in some locations, effectively sealing off portions of the oceanic crust. Thermal profiles resulting from fluid flow simulations indicate that volume changes along this possible reaction path occur primarily within the first 0.4 Myr of crustal aging.     

The indication of morphological degradation of streams and rivers using Simuliidae

Blackfly communities from five German stream types out of two ecoregions (small and mid-sized siliceous gravel-bed mountain streams of the Central mountains, ecoregion 9, and organic type brooks, small and mid-sized sand-bottomed Central lowland streams of ecoregion 14) are compared. Ecoregional, as well as stream type-specific biocoenotic differences are discussed. The presence of Prosimulium sp. was restricted to mountain streams, whereas Simulium lineatum seemed to prefer mid-sized sand-bottomed Central lowland streams, and S. vernum showed a clear preference for Central lowland streams. An Index of Morphological Stress (IMS), derived from 22 geo-hydromorphological parameters recorded during sampling in the field, is presented. According to the IMS values, sites are divided into morphologically ‘unstressed’ sites (high or good morphological quality) and ‘stressed’ sites (moderate, poor or bad morphological quality), and biocoenotic differences of the two categories are discussed. Two stream types and the entire data set showed significantly higher numbers of taxa at ‘unstressed’ sites. Linear Multiple Regression (LMR) was used to identify geo-hydromorphological parameters that significantly explain the variance of the three most constant taxa, Prosimulium sp., P. hirtipes and Simulium sp. in the LMR model.