Burst strain disturbance — A new test study on fracture precursor

A multi-functional high-frequency seismometer, a new instrumental system, is used for recording multi-point strain variations of rock samples in the process of fracture development. The results indicate that strain in each point appears burst disturbance synchronously besides a tendency variation before main fracture. The burst disturbance could probably be one of the short-impending precursors before great earthquake.     

新疆伊宁盆地活动断裂新活动特征研究

新疆伊宁盆地主要分布有巩留南、喀什河、雅马特等6条活动断裂，断裂走向近东西向与北酉一北北西向。其中巩留南断裂、喀什河断裂、雅马特断裂等在晚更新世一全新世时期有过多次显著的新活动，切错了晚更新世一全新世堆积物。在喀什河断裂上1812年发生了8级大展，形成长约100km的地震形变带。在巩留南断裂、雅马特断裂、伊宁断裂上也有受控于断裂近代新活动的中等地震发生。     

中国大陆中上地壳剪切波速结构

为使已获得的中国大陆中上地壳结构更为可靠,本文搜集了很多对浅部结构分辨率较好的短周期面波资料. 与传统面波层析成像反演方法不同,本文在第二步由面波频散得到剪切波速的过程中不再对每个结点进行一维波速模型分别反演,而是直接将所有结点上的区域化频散转换成三维波速结构的线性化约束,实现了直接的三维反演. 检测板测试结果显示该方法可以得到理想的反演结果. 本文得到的波速模型显示,中国大陆中上地壳的速度分布存在明显的横向变化和分区特征. 较低的波速异常很好地勾勒出我国主要的沉积盆地,波速异常在不同深度上的变化在一定程度上反映了各盆地结晶基底的深度. 以东经95deg;为界,特提斯构造域西部具有明显的低速异常,而东部基本没有低速异常. 基于油气资源多存在于沉积层中,而沉积层表现低速异常,我们推测特提斯构造域西部油气前景比东部好. 另外, 由于特提斯构造域西部低速非常明显,这可能也说明了其地壳温度较高. 兴安造山带的低速异常可能也说明了其地壳温度较高. 20 km深度上鄂尔多斯盆地西侧的弱低速带, 很好地勾勒出中国大陆近似沿105deg;经线的强震带的走势.      

平均血小板体积变化在急性胰腺炎中的临床意义及治疗效果评估价值

目的 探讨平均血小板体积等参数在急性胰腺炎病程中变化的临床意义及其对治疗效果评估的价值。方法 回顾性分析53例轻症急性胰腺炎（MAP）患者、25例重症急性胰腺炎（SAP）患者和40例健康者（对照组）的临床资料,检测平均血小板体积（MPV）、血小板计数（PLT）、血小板分布宽度（PDW）、白细胞计数（WBC）、C反应蛋白（CRP）及血清钙离子浓度（Ca²⁺）等指标。比较并分析上述指标在急性胰腺炎病程中及治疗前后的变化。结果 与对照组比较,急性胰腺炎患者入院时MPV显著升高,差异具有统计学意义（P<0.05）;与MAP组比较,SAP组入院时MPV明显升高,差异具有统计学意义（P<0.05）;SAP组中,MPV在入院后第3天较入院时进一步升高,至入院第5天、第7天逐渐下降;SAP组中,MPV在病程中各时间点与MAP组比较均显著升高,差异有统计学意义（P<0.05）;与治疗前比较,急性胰腺炎患者治疗后MPV显著降低,差异有统计学意义（P<0.05）。结论 急性胰腺炎患者平均血小板体积与病情严重程度及治疗效果相关。     

Projection and possible causes of summer precipitation in eastern China using self-organizing map

Self-organizing map (SOM) is used to simulate summer daily precipitation over the Yangtze–Huaihe river basin in Eastern China, including future projections. SOM shows good behaviors in terms of probability distribution of daily rainfall and spatial distribution of rainfall indices, as well as consistency of multi-model simulations. Under RCP4.5 Scenario, daily rainfall at most sites (63%) is projected to shift towards larger values. For the early 21st century (2016–2035), precipitation in the central basin increases, yet decreases occur over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River as well as a part of its southeast area. For the late 21st century (2081–2100), the mean precipitation and extreme indices experience an overall increase except for a few southeast stations. The total precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and in its south area is projected to increase from 7% at 1.5 °C global warming to 11% at 2 °C, while the intensity enhancement is more significant in southern and western sites of the domain. A clustering allows to regroup all SOM nodes into four distinct regimes. Such regional synoptic regimes show remarkable stability for future climate. The overall intensification of precipitation in future climate is linked to the occurrence-frequency rise of a wet regime which brings longitudinally closer the South Asia High (eastward extended) and the Western Pacific Subtropical High (westward extended), as well as the reduction of a dry pattern which makes the two atmospheric centers of action move away from each other.     

Using Traditional Methods and Indigenous Technologies for Coping With Climate Variability

In agrometeorology and management of meteorology related natural resources, many traditional methods and indigenous technologies are still in use or being revived for managing low external inputs sustainable agriculture (LEISA) under conditions of climate variability. This paper starts with the introduction of an “end-to-end” climate information build up and transfer system in agrometeorology, in which the use of such methods and technologies must be seen to operate. It then reviews the options that LEISA farmers have in risk management of agrometeorological and agroclimatological calamities. This is based on the role that the pertinent meteorological/climatological parameters and phenomena play as limiting factors in agricultural production and the expectations on their variability. Subsequently, local case studies are given as examples of preparedness strategies to cope with i). variable water/moisture flows, including mechanical impacts of rain and/or hail, ii). variable temperature and heat flows, including fires, and iii). fitting cropping periods to the varying seasons, everywhere including related phenomena as appropriate. The paper ends with a series of important additional considerations without which the indicated strategies cannot be successful on a larger scale and in the long run.     

2007/2008年冬季雨雪冰冻灾害的副热带高压环流背景与变异特征

基于NCEP/NCAR提供的1958—2008年逐日再分析资料,对2007/2008年冬季我国雨雪冰冻灾害期间副高指数特征与El Nino/La Nina年平均冬半年副高指数特征以及50a平均冬半年副高指数特征进行对比分析。采用交叉小波和小波相干分析方法,进一步分析了它们之间的相关性和异同性以及对大气环流的影响,揭示了2007/2008年我国南方雨雪冰冻灾害期间副热带高压活动与环流变异特性的一些基本特征,如La Nina事件冬季(尤其是中等强度La Nina事件年份的冬季),副高通常比一般年份副高的平均位置偏北。     

Multivariate adaptive regression splines for estimating riverine constituent concentrations

Regression-based methods are commonly used for riverine constituent concentration/flux estimation, which is essential for guiding water quality protection practices and environmental decision making. This paper developed a multivariate adaptive regression splines model for estimating riverine constituent concentrations (MARS-EC). The process, interpretability and flexibility of the MARS-EC modelling approach, was demonstrated for total nitrogen in the Patuxent River, a major river input to Chesapeake Bay. Model accuracy and uncertainty of the MARS-EC approach was further analysed using nitrate plus nitrite datasets from eight tributary rivers to Chesapeake Bay. Results showed that the MARS-EC approach integrated the advantages of both parametric and nonparametric regression methods, and model accuracy was demonstrated to be superior to the traditionally used ESTIMATOR model. MARS-EC is flexible and allows consideration of auxiliary variables; the variables and interactions can be selected automatically. MARS-EC does not constrain concentration-predictor curves to be constant but rather is able to identify shifts in these curves from mathematical expressions and visual graphics. The MARS-EC approach provides an effective and complementary tool along with existing approaches for estimating riverine constituent concentrations.     

改进的小波阈值函数对变形监测数据的去噪研究

基于小波分析中传统的阈值函数,结合其他学者提出的小波阈值函数,提出一种改进的小波阈值函数,并将其应用于变形监测数据的去噪处理。理论分析和算例表明,新的小波阈值去噪函数能够有效去除噪声。