Comparative analysis of fuzzy inference systems for water consumption time series prediction

Two types of fuzzy inference systems (FIS) are used for predicting municipal water consumption time series. The FISs used include an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and a Mamdani fuzzy inference systems (MFIS). The prediction models are constructed based on the combination of the antecedent values of water consumptions. The performance of ANFIS and MFIS models in training and testing phases are compared with the observations and the best fit model is identified according to the selected performance criteria. The results demonstrated that the ANFIS model is superior to MFIS models and can be successfully applied for prediction of water consumption time series.     

Investigation of liquefaction and pore water pressure development in layered sands

This paper presents the results of shaking table model tests which were carried out to investigate the pore water pressure generation and related liquefaction mechanism in layered sand deposits. The experiments were performed on uniform sand columns, silt interlayered sand columns and two layered sand columns deposited at various relative densities and subjected to different input excitations. During the experiments excess pore water pressures were measured by pore pressure transducers installed at three different depths and, surface settlements and thickness of water film developed under less permeable inclusions were measured by a digital camera. The experimental results are discussed and compared to demonstrate the effects of relative density, input acceleration and presence of a silt seam on the generation of excess pore water pressure in sand deposits subjected to dynamic loading. The results showed that the presence of a less permeable silt interlayer within the sand deposit and existence of a loose sand layer underlying dense sand deposits can have significant effect on the pore water pressure generation mechanism.     

Eocene tonalite–granodiorite from the Havza (Samsun) area,northern Turkey: adakite-like melts of lithospheric mantle and crust generated in a post-collisional setting

ABSTRACT

Eocene intermediate to felsic plutons of different sizes and compositions are widespread in the Eastern Pontides Orogenic Belt in northern Turkey. Of these, the Ta?l?k Tepe pluton in the Havza (Samsun) area is fine-to-medium-grained, with granular, porphyritic, and micrographic textures, and include mafic microgranular enclaves (MMEs). LA-ICP-MS U-Pb zircon dating yielded emplacement ages of 42.9 (± 1.4) and 40.5 (± 1.3) Ma for the host granodioritic pluton and the dioritic MMEs, respectively. Petrochemically, the host pluton has I-type, high-K calc-alkaline, and metaluminous-to-slightly peraluminous features (A/CNK = 0.95–1.06). The host pluton also shows geochemical features of adakite-like rocks with high SiO₂ (67–68 wt%) and Al₂O₃ (15.5–16.0 wt%) content and Ba/La (17–23), Sr/Y (40.7–61.6), and La_N/Yb_N (14.4–23.7) ratios and low Y (8.2–9.9 ppm) and Yb_N (3.1–4.4) contents. Whole-rock major and trace element variations suggest that fractional crystallisation played a significant role in the pluton evolution. The N-MORB normalised trace element patterns of the pluton are similar to those of MMEs with enrichment in large-ion lithophile elements, Th and Ce, and negative Nb and Ti anomalies. Chondrite-normalised rare earth element plots show moderate-to-highly enriched concave patterns (La_N/Lu_N = 14.2–21.6) with insignificant negative Eu anomalies (Eu_N/Eu* = 0.86–1.14), all of which imply hornblende fractionation during magmatic evolution. The pluton samples have ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of 0.704767 to 0.704927, ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios of 0.512767–0.512774, εNd values of (+2.52) – (+2.65), and δ¹⁸O values of 7.9–9.7‰. The isotopic compositions of the host pluton and MMEs are similar to I-type granitoids derived from mantle sources. The MMEs show incomplete magma mixing/mingling, representing small bodies of mafic parental magma. Combined with regional studies, these new data suggest that the parental magma of the studied adakite-like pluton was generated from the lithospheric mantle and then modified by fractional crystallisation and assimilation in a post-collisional setting.     

Quantification of the urban heat island under a changing climate over Anatolian Peninsula

The Anatolian Peninsula is located at the confluence of Europe, Asia, and Africa and houses 81 cities of which 79 of them have population over 100,000. We employed some criteria to select the cities from the 81 cities. After accomplishing all the criteria, eight cities were remaining for the study. Nonparametric Mann–Kendall test procedure was employed for the urban and rural stations of these cities to detect the long-term change in temperature trends. Statistical analysis of daily minimum temperatures for the period between 1965 and 2006 suggest that there is no statistically significant increase in rural areas. In contrast to the findings of the previous studies, however, all the urban sites and difference between urban and rural pairs show significant increase in temperatures, a strong indication for the existence of urban heat island (UHI) affect over the region. Regional Climate Model was also utilized to assess the changes in temperature by the end of century for the region. The findings suggest that an increase of up to 5°C is possible. Climate change effects enforced with UHI have the potential to cause serious problems for the entire region and hence needs to be studied thoroughly.     

The analysis of ground vibrations induced by bench blasting at Akyol quarry and practical blasting charts

Ground vibrations arising from excavation with blasting is one of the fundamental problems in the mining industry. Therefore, the prediction of ground vibration components plays an important role in the minimization of environmental complaints. In this study, 582 events were recorded during limestone production at a quarry (Akyol Quarry) during a period of time. The blasting parameters of these shots were also carefully recorded. During the statistical analysis of the collected data, three predictor equations proposed by the United States Bureau of Mines (USBM), Ambraseys–Hendron and Langefors–Kihlstrom were used to establish a relationship between peak particle velocity and scaled distance described by these prediction equations. As a result of this analysis, the most powerful relationship was determined and proposed to be used in this site. And also, this equation was used in the derivation of the practical blasting charts specific to this site as a practical way of predicting the peak particle velocity and maximum charge amount per delay for future blasting.     

The Palaeo-Tethyan suture: A line of demarcation between two fundamentally different architectural styles in the structure of Asia

Abstract The Palaeo-Tethyan suture separates regions characterized by two fundamentally different tectonic styles in the structure of the Tethysides. North of the suture in Iran, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Tadjikistan, Kirgizstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and large parts of the Russian Federation and China, orogenic development is characterized by very large subduction-accretion complexes developed since the late Proterozoic. Magmatic arc axes migrated radially outwards from the 'Old Vertex of Eurasia' and consolidated the accretionary prisms into a 'basement complex' dominated by a pelitic composition. In such orogens, called the 'Turkic-type' after the dominant ethnic population of Central Asia, ophiolites are unreliable indicators of sutures, because they are present throughout the 'basement' as in-faulted shreds and rarely as nappes. By contrast, south of the Palaeo-Tethyan suture, orogeny was commonly characterized by a Sumatra- or Andean-type continental margin arc (e.g. the Transhimalaya arc) that in places became an island arc by back-arc basin rifting (e.g. the Black Sea behind the Rhodope-Pontide fragment) and later collided with an Atlantic- (as in the Himalaya) or California-type (as in the Alps) continental margin to create Alpine- or Himalayan-type orogenic belts. Turkic-type orogenic belts result from the exaggeration of the Himalayan-type as a result of the subduction of very large oceanic areas that contain great amounts of sediment. They contribute to the enlargement and also possibly the growth of the continental crust which has a composition more silicic than basalt. The Palaeo-Tethyan suture is thus a line across which the rate of continental enlargement by subduction-accretion changed dramatically.     

Linear flow behaviour of matched joints – case study on standard JRC profiles

Roughness on rock joints produces a variable aperture across the joints and increases the flow path length. These conditions should be taken into account for a good approximation from cubic law. In this paper, the concept of local true aperture and tortuosity is applied to assumed joints where surfaces are matched to each other and correspond with standard Joint Roughness Coefficient (JRC) profiles. Furthermore, the hydraulic behaviour of JRC profiles is studied by a new laboratory experiment setup. The analytical approach provides new insights into the effects of roughness on hydraulic properties of rock joints. The results indicate that for a constant mechanical aperture, both the minimum local aperture and hydraulic aperture decrease with increasing JRC. Furthermore, tortuosity and standard deviation of local true aperture increase with JRC increment. The trend obtained between different parameters and JRC shows an obvious fluctuation for JRC lower than 10. On one hand, the results of this study along with a critical review of previous studies demonstrate that JRC profiles cannot present a precise roughness increment when JRC is less than 10. A new laboratory setup was designed to study the flow behaviour of JRC profiles. The results obtained from laboratory experiments under linear flow conditions validate the accuracy of the applied analytical method.     

Seasonal and spatial variations in the scaling and correlation structure of streamflow data

Seasonal and spatial variability in scaling, correlation and wavelet variance parameter of daily streamflow data were investigated using 56 gauging stations from five basins located in two different climate zones. Multifractal temporal scaling properties were detected using a multiplicative cascade model. The wavelet variance parameter yielded persistence properties of the streamflow time series. Seasonal variations were found to be significant in that winter and spring seasons where large‐scale frontal events are dominant showed higher long‐term correlations and less multifractality than did summer and fall seasons. Coherent spatial variations were apparent. The Neches River basin located in a subtropic humid climate zone exhibited high persistence and long‐term correlation as well as less multifractality as compared with other basins. It is found that larger drainage areas tend to have smaller multifractality and higher persistence structure, and this tendency becomes apparent in regions that receive large amounts of precipitation and decreases towards arid regions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.