Evaluation and comparison of landslide susceptibility mapping methods: a case study for the Ulus district,Bartın,northern Turkey

The purpose of this study was to investigate the capabilities of different landslide susceptibility methods by comparing their results statistically and spatially to select the best method that portrays the susceptibility zones for the Ulus district of the Bart?n province (northern Turkey). Susceptibility maps based on spatial regression (SR), linear discriminant analysis (LDA), quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA), logistic regression (LR) method, and artificial neural network method (ANN) were generated, and the effect of each geomorphological parameter was determined. The landslide inventory map digitized from previous studies was used as a base map for landslide occurrence. All of the analyses were implemented with respect to landslides classified as rotational, active, and deeper than 5 m. Three different sets of data were used to produce nine explanatory variables (layers). The study area was divided into grids of 90 m × 90 m, and the ‘seed cell’ technique was applied to obtain statistically balanced population distribution over landslide inventory area. The constructed dataset was divided into two datasets as training and test. The initial assessment consisted of multicollinearity of explanatory variables. Empirical information entropy analysis was implemented to quantify the spatial distribution of the outcomes of these methods. Results of the analyses were validated by using success rate curve (SRC) and prediction rate curve (PRC) methods. Additionally, statistical and spatial comparisons of the results were performed to determine the most suitable susceptibility zonation method in this large-scale study area. In accordance with all these comparisons, it is concluded that ANN was the best method to represent landslide susceptibility throughout the study area with an acceptable processing time.     

Spatial Prediction of Lateral Variability of a Laterite-Type Bauxite Horizon Using Ancillary Ground-Penetrating Radar Data

Tropical laterite-type bauxite deposits often pose a unique challenge for resource modelling and mine planning due to the extreme lateral variability at the base of the bauxite ore unit within the regolith profile. An economically viable drilling grid is often rather sparse for traditional prediction techniques to precisely account for the lateral variability in the lower contact of a bauxite ore unit. However, ground-penetrating radar (GPR) offers an inexpensive and rapid method for delineating laterite profiles by acquiring fine-scale data from the ground. These numerous data (secondary variable) can be merged with sparsely spaced borehole data (primary variable) through various statistical and geostatistical techniques, provided that there is a linear relation between the primary and secondary variables. Four prediction techniques, including standard linear regression, simple kriging with varying local means, co-located cokriging and kriging with an external drift, were used in this study to incorporate exhaustive GPR data in predictive estimation the base of a bauxite ore unit within a lateritic bauxite deposit in Australia. Cross-validation was used to assess the performance of each technique. The most robust estimates are produced using ordinary co-located cokriging in accordance with the cross-validation analysis. Comparison of the estimates against the actual mine floor indicates that the inclusion of ancillary GPR data substantially improves the quality of the estimates representing the bauxite base surface.     

Ground water radon anomalies in Bodrum Peninsula

Bodrum Peninsula is located between Hellenic Trench in the west and Gökova Fault Zone in the east which is affected by hundreds of earthquakes every year. Because of its active environment is allowed to monitor tracers/precursors continuously to analyse natural processes. This study focused on the determination of ground water radon (²²²Rn) concentrations in the Bodrum Peninsula in terms of seismic activities. Radon levels of ten ground water wells were measured periodically throughout the peninsula and these wells were divided into two groups according to the number of earthquakes they are exposed. Radon variations in second group stations are fairly significant as a result of high number of earthquakes. In these stations, radon continuously increased before the seismic storm and then decreased step by step. The results indicated that radon variations in ground waters of Bodrum Peninsula can be a good indicator for seismic storms instead of one specific event.     

Modified dynamic programming approach for offline segmentation of long hydrometeorological time series

For the offline segmentation of long hydrometeological time series, a new algorithm which combines the dynamic programming with the recently introduced remaining cost concept of branch-and-bound approach is developed. The algorithm is called modified dynamic programming (mDP) and segments the time series based on the first-order statistical moment. Experiments are performed to test the algorithm on both real world and artificial time series comprising of hundreds or even thousands of terms. The experiments show that the mDP algorithm produces accurate segmentations in much shorter time than previously proposed segmentation algorithms.     

Discussion: a critique of Possible waterways between the Marmara Sea and the Black Sea in the late Quaternary: evidence from ostracod and foraminifer assemblages in lakes ?znik and Sapanca, Turkey, Geo-Marine Letters, 2011

The identification of past connection routes between the Black Sea and the Sea of Marmara, other than the traditional one through to the Bosphorus Strait, would be of considerable interest to the international scientific community. Nazik et al. (Geo-Mar Lett 31:75?C86 (2011) doi:10.1007/s00367-010-0216-9) suggest the possibility of two alternative waterway connections via lakes Sapanca and ?znik. Their Black Sea to Sea of Marmara multi-connection hypothesis, which is based on undated marine fossils collected in both lakes from surficial grab samples, conflicts with many earlier studies. In this contribution, the hypothesis and the underlying data are discussed in the light of previous tectonic, sedimentological and limnological findings showing that it is impossible to have had marine connections through lakes Sapanca and ?znik during the last 11.5?ka. Global sea-level trends and tectonic uplift rates would accommodate a connection between the Sea of Marmara and Lake ?znik in the middle Pleistocene. Uplift rates for the northern block of the North Anatolian Fault, when compared with the global sea-level curve, clearly indicate that there cannot have been a connection through the ?zmit Gulf?CLake Sapanca?CSakarya Valley for at least the past 500?ka. Moreover, borehole sediments along the western shores of Lake Sapanca, which reach down to the bedrock, do not contain any marine fossils.     

A Fuzzy Rule Based Remedial Priority Ranking System for Contaminated Sites

Contaminated site remediation is generally difficult, time consuming, and expensive. As a result ranking may aid in efficient allocation of resources. In order to rank the priorities of contaminated sites, input parameters relevant to contaminant fate and transport, and exposure assessment should be as accurate as possible. Yet, in most cases these parameters are vague or not precise. Most of the current remediation priority ranking methodologies overlook the vagueness in parameter values or do not go beyond assigning a contaminated site to a risk class. The main objective of this study is to develop an alternative remedial priority ranking system (RPRS) for contaminated sites in which vagueness in parameter values is considered. RPRS aims to evaluate potential human health risks due to contamination using sufficiently comprehensive and readily available parameters in describing the fate and transport of contaminants in air, soil, and groundwater. Vagueness in parameter values is considered by means of fuzzy set theory. A fuzzy expert system is proposed for the evaluation of contaminated sites and a software (ConSiteRPRS) is developed in Microsoft Office Excel 2007 platform. Rankings are employed for hypothetical and real sites. Results show that RPRS is successful in distinguishing between the higher and lower risk cases.     

Comparative analysis of regression and artificial neural network models for wind speed prediction

In this study, wind speed was modeled by linear regression (LR), nonlinear regression (NLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) methods. A three-layer feedforward artificial neural network structure was constructed and a backpropagation algorithm was used for the training of ANNs. To get a successful simulation, firstly, the correlation coefficients between all of the meteorological variables (wind speed, ambient temperature, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity and rainfall) were calculated taking two variables in turn for each calculation. All independent variables were added to the simple regression model. Then, the method of stepwise multiple regression was applied for the selection of the “best” regression equation (model). Thus, the best independent variables were selected for the LR and NLR models and also used in the input layer of the ANN. The results obtained by all methods were compared to each other. Finally, the ANN method was found to provide better performance than the LR and NLR methods.     

Systematic paleontology,biostratigraphy, paleobiogeography of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Loftusia</Emphasis> (foraminifera) and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Rudist</Emphasis> assemblages in a regressive sequence in the Hekimhan-Malatya area (Eastern Anatolia) Turkey

The Maastrichtian regressive sequence of the Hekimhan-Malatya area in Eastern Turkey consists of dolomitic limestones, limestones and calcareous mudstones which are dominated by rudists and Loftusia (foraminifera) assemblages. Several Loftusia species indicating middle to late Maastrichtian age such as Loftusia anatolica Meriç, L. baykali Meriç, L. coxi Henson, L. harrisoni Cox, L. minor Cox and L. morgani Douvillé have been recorded. Other benthic foraminifers present include Orbitoides medius d’ Archiac, Omphalocyclus macroporus (Lamarck), Laffitteina conica Drooger, Laffitteina mengaudi (Astre) and Laffitteina oeztuerki Inan. The rudists are abundant in the dolomitic limestones in the study area. The genus Miseia Patrulius is dominant and represented by Miseia bilacunosa Özer and Miseia hekimhanensis Karacabey-Öztemür. The Loftusia species and the Rudists assemblage indicates middle to late Maastrichtian age for the formation. The paleobiogeographic distribution of the assemblage has been discussed taking this find into account.     

Sedimentology of coexisting travertine and tufa deposits in a mounded geothermal spring carbonate system,Obruktepe, Turkey

The recent discoveries of deeply buried Cretaceous reservoir bodies in the Atlantic Ocean revealed that relationships between the distribution of spring carbonate deposits and faults are poorly understood. The well‐exposed Quaternary deposits at Obruktepe (Denizli Basin, Turkey) provide an opportunity to reconstruct the three‐dimensional sedimentary architecture of such a system. Integration of sedimentological, lithofacies and geochemical analyses reveals complexity in the lateral relationships between sedimentary environments, faults and geothermal spring carbonates. Five environmental systems are distinguished based on the lithofacies analysis: (i) vent; (ii) smooth slope; (iii) travertine‐terrace; (iv) tufa‐barrage; and (v) flood systems. Encrusting, baffling and settling sedimentary processes are reflected in data acquired at several scales, from lithofacies observations to the morphology and arrangement of geobodies, together with microfabrics and stable carbon and oxygen isotope data. Mean values of +4·9‰ δ¹³C and −8·74‰ δ¹⁸O Vienna PeeDee Belemnite reflect geothermal circulation of springwaters. The environmental distribution and lithofacies indicate a lateral continuum between travertine and tufa deposits within this hot spring system. This finding supports two depositional models in which water flow variation is the main control on both CaCO₃ precipitation and the resulting formation of travertine and tufa. The proposed models address the factors responsible for the development of these complex mound‐shaped carbonate spring deposits, and how they are related to fluid circulation at depth and in association with faults.     

Numerical simulations of landslide-stabilizing piles: a remediation project in Söke,Turkey

A catastrophic landslide following a rainy season occurred in the backyard of a school building in Söke, Turkey. The landslide caused property damage and adversely affected the present forest cover. Immediately after the landslide, double-row stabilizing piles were designed and constructed based on the findings of two-dimensional (2D) finite element (FE) analyses to take an urgent precaution. To remedy the problem, pile displacements were monitored using inclinometers, and it was observed that the measured displacements were greater than the values calculated in the design stage. Accordingly, two different three-dimensional (3D) numerical FE models were used in tandem with the inclinometer data to determine the load transfer mechanism. In the first model, numerical analyses were made to predict the pile displacements, and while the model predicted successfully the displacement of the piles constructed in the middle with reasonable accuracy, it failed for the corner piles. In the second model, the soil load transfer between piles was determined considering the sliding mass geometry, the soil arching mechanism and the group interaction between adjacent piles. The results of the second model revealed that the middle piles with large displacements transferred their loads to the corner piles with smaller displacements. The generated soil loads, perpendicular to the sliding direction, restricted pile deformations and piles with less displacement were subjected to greater loads due to the bowl-shaped landslide. A good agreement between the computed pile displacements and inclinometer data indicates that the existing soil pressure theories should be improved considering the position of the pile in the sliding mass, the depth and deformation modulus of stationary soil, the relative movement between the soil and piles and the relative movement of adjacent piles.