Hydraulic and flood-loss modeling of levee,floodplain, and river management strategies,Middle Mississippi River,USA

In this investigation, four scenarios were used to quantify the balance between the benefits of levees for flood protection and their potential to increase flood risk using Hazards U.S. Multi-Hazard flood-loss software and hydraulic modeling of the Middle Mississippi River (MMR). The goals of this study were (1) to quantify the flood exposure under different flood-control configurations and (2) to assess the relative contributions of various engineered structures and flood-loss strategies to potential flood losses. Removing all the flood-control structures along the MMR, without buyouts or other mitigation, reduced the average flood stages between 2.3 m (100-year flood) and 2.5 m (500-year), but increased the potential flood losses by $4.3–6.7 billion. Removing the agricultural levees downstream of St. Louis decreased the flood stages through the metro region by ~1.0 m for the 100- and 500-year events; flood losses, without buyouts or other mitigation, were increased by $4.3–6.7 billion. Removing the agricultural levees downstream of St. Louis decreased the flood stages through the metro region by ~1.0 m for the 100- and 500-year events; flood losses, without buyouts or other mitigation, were increased by 155 million for the 100-year flood, but were decreased by $109 million for the 500-year flood. Thus, agricultural levees along the MMR protect against small- to medium-size floods (up to the ~100-year flood level) but cause more damage than they prevent during large floods such as the 500-year flood. Buyout costs for the all the buildings within the 500-year floodplain downstream of urban flood-control structures near St. Louis are ~40% less than the cost of repairing the buildings damaged by the 500-year flood. This suggests large-scale buyouts could be the most cost-effective option for flood loss mitigation for properties currently protected by agricultural levees.     

Developing coastal adaptation to climate change in the New York City infrastructure-shed: process, approach, tools, and strategies

While current rates of sea level rise and associated coastal flooding in the New York City region appear to be manageable by stakeholders responsible for communications, energy, transportation, and water infrastructure, projections for sea level rise and associated flooding in the future, especially those associated with rapid icemelt of the Greenland and West Antarctic Icesheets, may be outside the range of current capacity because extreme events might cause flooding beyond today??s planning and preparedness regimes. This paper describes the comprehensive process, approach, and tools for adaptation developed by the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) in conjunction with the region??s stakeholders who manage its critical infrastructure, much of which lies near the coast. It presents the adaptation framework and the sea-level rise and storm projections related to coastal risks developed through the stakeholder process. Climate change adaptation planning in New York City is characterized by a multi-jurisdictional stakeholder?Cscientist process, state-of-the-art scientific projections and mapping, and development of adaptation strategies based on a risk-management approach.     

Modeling a major source of economic resilience to disasters: recapturing lost production

Terrorist attacks and natural disasters have potentially severe economic consequences in terms of property damage and business interruption. However, experience from the September 11 World Trade Center attack and other disasters indicates that the economy has a great deal of resilience. This refers to the ability to dampen the maximum potential economic output (business interruption) loss. One of the most prominent sources of resilience is the ability of businesses to reschedule, or recapture, lost production after the event. Although there have been applications of a fixed parameter recapture factor for each of several aggregated sectors of the economy, there has been little formal analysis of this resilience action. This study offers a theoretic framework for analyzing production rescheduling. It distinguishes the major conditions influencing two aspects that have previously been neglected: (1) the maximum time span over which the rescheduling can take place and (2) the likely decline of the maximum recapture as the business interruption increases. We divide the relevant time path into two periods after recovery. One is a function of a recaptured output path after recovery to the status of normal production. The other is a function for the maximum recaptured production, based on the recaptured output path. The recaptured output path function is assumed to follow a normal distribution function, and hence, total recaptured output follows the cumulative normal distribution function over time after productive capacity is restored. Also, we develop a new cumulative normal distribution function for interruption time duration, which is symmetric with respect to the output axis. This recapture function has unknown parameters. Empirical data on the recaptured amounts following an actual disaster can be used to estimate the parameters of this function using simulation methods.     

On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on Living Marine Resources

The study of climate impacts on Living Marine Resources (LMRs) has increased rapidly in recent years with the availability of climate model simulations contributed to the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Collaboration between climate and LMR scientists and shared understanding of critical challenges for such applications are essential for developing robust projections of climate impacts on LMRs. This paper assesses present approaches for generating projections of climate impacts on LMRs using IPCC-class climate models, recommends practices that should be followed for these applications, and identifies priority developments that could improve current projections. Understanding of the climate system and its representation within climate models has progressed to a point where many climate model outputs can now be used effectively to make LMR projections. However, uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly biases and inter-model spread at regional to local scales), coarse climate model resolution, and the uncertainty and potential complexity of the mechanisms underlying the response of LMRs to climate limit the robustness and precision of LMR projections. A variety of techniques including the analysis of multi-model ensembles, bias corrections, and statistical and dynamical downscaling can ameliorate some limitations, though the assumptions underlying these approaches and the sensitivity of results to their application must be assessed for each application. Developments in LMR science that could improve current projections of climate impacts on LMRs include improved understanding of the multi-scale mechanisms that link climate and LMRs and better representations of these mechanisms within more holistic LMR models. These developments require a strong baseline of field and laboratory observations including long time series and measurements over the broad range of spatial and temporal scales over which LMRs and climate interact. Priority developments for IPCC-class climate models include improved model accuracy (particularly at regional and local scales), inter-annual to decadal-scale predictions, and the continued development of earth system models capable of simulating the evolution of both the physical climate system and biosphere. Efforts to address these issues should occur in parallel and be informed by the continued application of existing climate and LMR models.     

A review of the NEMURO and NEMURO.FISH models and their application to marine ecosystem investigations

The evolution of the North Pacific Ecosystem Model for Understanding Regional Oceanography (NEMURO) family of models to study marine ecosystems is reviewed. Applications throughout the North Pacific have shown the models to be robust and to be able to reproduce 1D, 2D and 3D components of nutrient, carbon cycle and biogeochemical cycles as well as aspects of the lower trophic levels ecosystem (phyto- and zooplankton). NEMURO For Including Saury and Herring, an extension that includes higher trophic levels, can be run uncoupled or coupled to NEMURO. In the uncoupled mode, the growth and weight of an individual fish is computed using plankton densities simulated by NEMURO but with no feedback between fish consumption and plankton mortality. In the coupled mode, the feeding, growth and weight of a representative fish are computed, and prey removals due to feeding by fish appear as mortality terms on the prey. The NEMURO family of models continues to evolve, including effects of the microbial loop and iron limitation at lower trophic levels, and full life cycle, multi-species and multi-generational simulations at higher trophic levels. We outline perspectives for future end-to-end modeling efforts that can be used to study marine ecosystems in response to global environmental change.     

Biological controls on dissolution of diatom frustules during their descent to the deep ocean: Lessons learned from controlled laboratory experiments

The majority of opal produced by diatoms dissolves during their sedimentation to the seafloor, but spatial and temporal variability of dissolution rates are large. Controlled laboratory experiments using live phytoplankton or phyto-detritus may help identify the different processes, including those that are biologically mediated or physico-chemically driven, that impact the dissolution of frustules and the aforementioned variability. Results of eight bSiO₂ dissolution experiments, seven of which were conducted at low temperatures (<6 °C) are presented within the context of earlier similar studies, and different phases of dissolution dynamics characterized. TEP concentration, aggregation and the physiological status of the diatoms determined the period during which diatoms may maintain the protective membrane that surrounds their frustule and effectively reduces or completely inhibits (lag period) dissolution for some time. Once diatoms loose the capability to maintain their protective membrane, bacterial activity compromises it. Physico-chemical dissolution, which depends on frustule structure and abiotic environmental conditions, begins once the protective membrane is damaged. The ability of diatoms to maintain their membrane, the bacterial composition and activity governing its degradation, and the physico-chemical dissolution dynamics of exposed frustules are all impacted by temperature. In our experiments instantaneous dissolution rates were not dependant on bSiO₂ concentration at low temperatures, although such a relationship was observed under otherwise identical conditions at 15 °C, implying that biotic factors rather than physico-chemical processes initially dominated dissolution at polar temperatures. Since inhibition of bSiO₂ dissolution at low temperatures was inhibited to a greater extent than organic matter degradation, we postulate that it was not reduced bacterial activity but the enhanced ability of diatoms to maintain their membrane and thus withstand microbial attack that caused the low initial dissolution rates at <6 °C. In situ, interactions between the different biotic and abiotic processes impacting dissolution combined with differences in sinking velocity of diatom aggregates and grazing effects could easily explain high spatial and temporal variability in the accumulation of diatoms on the seafloor. Simple calculations based on our experimental results suggest that Fragilariopsis kerguelensis, for example, would be appreciably more likely to reach the seafloor than Chaetoceros debilis if both grow at low growth rates, e.g. under growth limiting conditions. However, dissolution behavior of Chaetoceros debilis during sedimentation may differ under conditions where this species forms large blooms.     

Volatile loss from melt inclusions in pyroclasts of differing sizes

We have investigated the loss of H₂O from olivine-hosted melt inclusions (MIs) by designing an experiment using tephra samples that cooled at different rates owing to their different sizes: ash, lapilli, and bomb samples that were deposited on the same day (10/17/74) of the sub-Plinian eruption of Volcán de Fuego in Guatemala. Ion microprobe, laser ablation-ICPMS, and electron probe analyses show that MIs from ash and lapilli record the highest H₂O contents, up to 4.4 wt%. On the other hand, MIs from bombs indicate up to 30 % lower H₂O contents (loss of ~1 wt% H₂O) and 10 % post-entrapment crystallization of olivine. This evidence is consistent with the longer cooling time available for a bomb-sized clast, up to 10 min for a 3–4-cm radius bomb, assuming conductive cooling and the fastest H diffusivities measured in olivine (D~10^?9 to 10^?10 m²/s). On the other hand, several lines of evidence point to some water loss prior to eruption, during magma ascent and degassing in the conduit. Thus, results point to both slower post-eruptive cooling and slower magma ascent affecting MIs from bombs, leading to H₂O loss over the timescale of minutes to hours. The important implication of this study is that a significant portion of the published data on H₂O concentrations in olivine-hosted MIs may reflect unrecognized H₂O loss via diffusion. This work highlights the importance of reporting clast and MI sizes in order to assess diffusive effects and the potential benefit of using water loss as a chronometer of magma ascent.     

Sedimentological constraints on hydrometeor-enhanced particle deposition: 1992 Eruptions of Crater Peak, Alaska

Water is a dominant component of volcanic clouds and has fundamental control on very fine particle deposition. Particle size characteristics of distal tephra-fall (100s km from source volcano) have a higher proportion of very fine particles compared to predictions based on single particle settling rates. In this study, sedimentological analyses of fallout from for the 18 August and 16–17 September 1992 eruptions of Crater Peak, Alaska, are combined with satellite observations, and cloud trajectory and microphysics modeling to investigate meteorological influences on particle sedimentation. Total grain size distributions of tephra fallout were reconstructed for both Crater Peak eruptions and indicate a predominance of fine particles < 125 μm. Polymodal analysis of the deposits has identified a particle subpopulation with mode ~ 15–18 μm involved in particle aggregation. Accounting for the magmatic water source only, calculated ice water content of the 3.7 hour old September 1992 Spurr cloud was ~ 4.5 × 10^− 2 g m^− 3 (based on an estimated cloud thickness of ~ 1000 m from trajectory modeling). Hydrometeor formation on particles in the volcanic cloud and subsequent sublimation may induce a cloud base instability that leads to rapid bulk (en masse) sedimentation of very fine particles through a mammatus-like mechanism.