Diffusion compensation in natural silicates

The temperature dependence of diffusion is usually found to follow the Arrhenius law: D = D₀e^?E/RT Winchell (1969) showed that there is commonly an inter-dependence between D₀ and E (for diffusion in silicate glasses), such that diffusion of different species show a positive correlation on a log D₀ vs E plot. A similar effect was noted by Hofmann (1980) for cation diffusion in basalt. This implies that diffusion rates of different species tend to converge at a particular temperature; this effect is known as the ‘compensation effect’. I will show that this effect is also present for diffusion in feldspars and olivines. The equations for the compensation lines (with E given in kcal/mol) are: basalt—E = 50 + 7.5 log D₀ feldspar—E = 50.7 + 3.4 log D₀ olivine—E = 78.0 + 7.5 log D₀ The convergence, or crossover, temperatures for diffusion in various materials are: obsidian—3400°C basalt—1370°C olivine—1360°C feldspar—460°C Compensation plots are useful for evaluating and comparing experimental diffusion data (though of limited usefulness in a predictive sense) and for understanding ‘closure temperatures’ for diffusion in petrogenetic processes (since closure temperature, the temperature at which natural diffusion processes are frozen in, is dependent on E, log d₀, and cooling rate). I show that most diffusing species in feldspar have a closure-temperature close to the crossover or convergence temperature, implying that all species in feldspars can be expected to ‘freeze-in’ simultaneously at temperatures in the range 400–600°C (for cooling rates in the range 10¹–10⁵°C/myr). Closure temperatures of various species in olivine, on the other hand, span a much larger range (800°C) for a similar range in cooling rates, implying that different elements in olivine will record different time-temperature stages in petrogenetic processes.     

Evaluation of the CORDEX-Africa multi-RCM hindcast: systematic model errors

Monthly-mean precipitation, mean (T_AVG), maximum (T_MAX) and minimum (T_MIN) surface air temperatures, and cloudiness from the CORDEX-Africa regional climate model (RCM) hindcast experiment are evaluated for model skill and systematic biases. All RCMs simulate basic climatological features of these variables reasonably, but systematic biases also occur across these models. All RCMs show higher fidelity in simulating precipitation for the west part of Africa than for the east part, and for the tropics than for northern Sahara. Interannual variation in the wet season rainfall is better simulated for the western Sahel than for the Ethiopian Highlands. RCM skill is higher for T_AVG and T_MAX than for T_MIN, and regionally, for the subtropics than for the tropics. RCM skill in simulating cloudiness is generally lower than for precipitation or temperatures. For all variables, multi-model ensemble (ENS) generally outperforms individual models included in ENS. An overarching conclusion in this study is that some model biases vary systematically for regions, variables, and metrics, posing difficulties in defining a single representative index to measure model fidelity, especially for constructing ENS. This is an important concern in climate change impact assessment studies because most assessment models are run for specific regions/sectors with forcing data derived from model outputs. Thus, model evaluation and ENS construction must be performed separately for regions, variables, and metrics as required by specific analysis and/or assessments. Evaluations using multiple reference datasets reveal that cross-examination, quality control, and uncertainty estimates of reference data are crucial in model evaluations.     

Kilofarms in The Agricultural Heartland

Kilofarms are farms of 1,000 acres or more. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Census of Agriculture has few tabulations of data by farm size, but geographical analysis suggests some of the characteristics of kilofarms. Their operators are part‐owner farmers. Their land and buildings are worth several millions of dollars, and their gross annual income is well over the $250,000 necessary to provide an acceptable level of living for a contemporary farm family. Kilofarmers concentrate on growing crops of corn and soybeans for cash sale, and they rely on computers and Internet access to help them make marketing decisions.     

Cloud bands over southern Africa: seasonality, contribution to rainfall variability and modulation by the MJO

Tropical-extratropical cloud band systems over southern Africa, known as tropical temperate troughs (TTTs), are known to contribute substantially to South African summer rainfall. This study performs a comprehensive assessment of the seasonal cycle and rainfall contribution of TTTs by using a novel object-based strategy that explicitly tracks these systems for their full life cycle. The methodology incorporates a simple assignment of station rainfall data to each event, thereby creating a database containing detailed rainfall characteristics for each TTT. This is used to explore the importance of TTTs for rain days and climatological rainfall totals in October–March. Average contributions range from 30 to 60 % with substantial spatial heterogeneity observed. TTT rainfall contributions over the Highveld and eastern escarpment are lower than expected. A short analysis of TTT rainfall variability indicates TTTs provide substantial, but not dominant, intraseasonal and interannual variability in station rainfall totals. TTTs are however responsible for a high proportion of heavy rainfall days. Of 52 extreme rainfall events in the 1979–1999 period, 30 are associated with these tropical-extratropical interactions. Cut-off lows were included in the evolution of 6 of these TTTs. The study concludes with an analysis of the question: does the Madden-Julian Oscillation influence the intensity of TTT rainfall over South Africa? Results suggest a weak but significant suppression (enhancement) of intensity during phase 1(6).     

Correlates of vulnerability to climate-induced distribution changes in European avifauna: habitat, migration and endemism

Accelerated climatic change will alter species’ distributions substantially by the end of the 21st Century and studies modeling distribution change using Climatic Envelope Modeling (CEM) are increasingly crucial for understanding long-term biotic implications of climate change. However, most CEM studies generate either all-species means, which are of limited practical use, or copious species-specific predictions that make it hard to draw general conclusions about those groups most vulnerable. Intermediate analyses that are half way between these two extremes are necessary to establish the relative vulnerability of species to change based on factors that can be related directly to policy and practice, including habitat associations and ecological traits such as endemism and migration status. Here we use species-specific CEM data to analyse changes in geographical distribution, range size, and overlap between current and potential ranges, for all 431 bird species breeding regularly in Europe. Future range sizes are predicted to be 80 % of current range sizes, with an average overlap of 39 %. However, we show that change varies significantly according to habitat, current range size, and endemism status, with no differences according to migration status. Coastal, wetland and upland birds will be significantly worse off under CEM scenarios than birds associated with woodland, farmland and heathland, while urban birds and those using multiple habitats doing best. Birds with small ranges show more severe, and spatially more complex, distribution shifts. The identification of species groups most vulnerable to climate change means that CEM predictions can now be used to inform policy and management, especially where initiatives are based on species grouped according to such variables or where habitat-specific policies are in place.     

Clashing strategic cultures and climate policy

Abstract

Kagan (2002) argues that the different responses of Europeans and Americans to major strategic and international challenges is not simply due to differences in the current administrations, but rather results from (i) a power gap and (ii) differing ideologies. This article applies Kagan's theory to climate policy, employing terrorism policy as a point of comparison. We argue that the power gap between Europe and America is unable to explain the differences in climate policy. In contrast, the ideology gap may indeed have some explanatory value. Furthermore, we argue that one additional feature is critical—the costs and benefits imposed by climate change and terrorism prevention, and the process by which such costs and benefits are evaluated, differ between America and Europe.     

Late Miocene paleoenvironment of the Lambert Graben embayment, East Antarctica, evident from: Mollusc paleontology, sedimentology and geochemistry

The Upper Miocene (10.7–9.0 Ma) Battye Glacier Formation was deposited 250 km inland from the modern Amery Ice Shelf edge in Prydz Bay, East Antarctica. The composition of clay minerals distinguishes a Lower Member, which reflects regional erosion of Precambrian metamorphic basement, from an Upper Member, which records increased erosion of local Permian–Triassic Amery Group strata. The Upper Member was deposited in an ice-proximal environment akin to the modern fjords of East Greenland, with substantial diamict deposition resulting from melting iceberg discharge. The Lower Member was deposited in an ice-distal environment and included the accumulation of the fossil-bearing McLeod Beds. The McLeod Beds contain much siliceous biogenic sediment (≤ 15% opal), which is rare to absent in the predominantly hemipelagic mud of modern East Greenland fjords. The McLeod Beds also contain largely monospecific in situ Hiatella sp. mollusc assemblages suggestive of environmental stress, potentially caused by low salinity melt-water and a high input of terrigenous sediment, which excluded most other benthic taxa. Geochemical results from primary aragonite in Hiatella shells imply large freshwater input into the marine environment during mollusc growth, causing low δ¹⁸O, Na, Mg and high Fe values. The present study indicates that iceberg melt-water influence entering the marine environment was greater during the Late Miocene than today around Antarctica, and documents the paleoenvironment associated with a discrete period of ice margin retreat and marine incursion into the Lambert embayment.     

Nonnative Species in British Columbia Eelgrass Beds Spread via Shellfish Aquaculture and Stay for the Mild Climate

Nonnative species cause economic and ecological impacts in habitats they invade, but there is little information on how they spread and become abundant. This is especially true for nonnative species in native Zostera marina eelgrass beds in coastal British Columbia, Canada, which play a vital role in estuarine ecosystems. We tested how nonnative species richness and abundance were related to both arrival vectors and environmental factors in northeast Pacific eelgrass. Using correlation tests and generalized linear models, we examined how nonnative macroinvertebrates (benthic, epifaunal, and large mobile) and some algae species were related to arrival vectors (shipping and aquaculture) and environmental factors (climate variables, human population density, and native richness and abundance). We found 12 nonnative species, 50 % with known negative impacts within eelgrass habitats. For benthic organisms, both nonnative richness and abundance were strongly correlated with shellfish aquaculture activities, and not with shipping activity. For epifaunal nonnative richness and abundance, neither vector was significantly correlated. Climate (temperature and salinity) helped explain nonnative richness but not abundance; there was no relationship of nonnative richness or abundance to native species richness and abundance or population density. Results suggest that aquaculture activities are responsible for many primary introductions of benthic nonnative species, and that temperature and salinity tolerances are responsible for post-introduction invasion success. While aquaculture and shipping vectors are becoming increasingly regulated to prevent further international spread of nonnative species, it will be important when managing nonnatives to consider secondary spread from intraregional transport through local shellfish aquaculture and shipping.