Changes to the drivers of fire weather with a warming climate – a case study of southeast Tasmania

Projected changes to the global climate system have great implications for the incidence of large infrequent fires in many regions. Here we examine the synoptic-scale and local-scale influences on the incidence of extreme fire weather days and consider projections of the large-scale mean climate to explore future fire weather projections. We focus on a case study region with periodic extreme fire dangers; southeast Tasmania, Australia. We compare the performance of a dynamically downscaled regional climate model with Global Climate Model outputs as a tool for examining the local-scale influences while accounting for high regional variability. Many of the worst fires in Tasmania and the southeast Australian region are associated with deep cold fronts and strong prefrontal winds. The downscaled simulations reproduce this synoptic type with greater fidelity than a typical global climate model. The incidence of systems in this category is projected to increase through the century under a high emission scenario, driven mainly by an increase in the temperature of air masses, with little change in the strength of the systems. The regional climate model projected increase in frequency is smaller than for the global climate models used as input, with a large model range and natural variability. We also demonstrate how a blocking Foehn effect and topographic channelling contributed to the extreme conditions during an extreme fire weather day in Tasmania in January 2013. Effects such as these are likely to contribute to high fire danger throughout the century. Regional climate models are useful tools that enable various meteorological drivers of fire danger to be considered in projections of future fire danger.     

Environmental Correlates of Growth and Stable Isotopes in Intertidal Species Along an Estuarine Fjord

Production and resource use by intertidal taxa were studied in the estuarine fjord of Puget Sound, Washington, USA. Along nearly 100 km, salinity is similar, and intertidal habitat and immersion time were kept consistent, thus allowing a focus on other environmental variables such as temperature and resource availability that could influence growth. Primary producers (ulvoid and fucoid macroalgae) and suspension feeders (oysters and barnacles) were transplanted on three beaches in each of three regions and assessed for individual-level growth, carbon and nitrogen ratios, and stable isotopes. In most transplants, δ¹³C and C/N showed no regional variation but δ¹⁵N was enriched up-estuary. Among environmental variables, chlorophyll a, total suspended solids, and particulate organic matter had small and/or inconsistent regional variation, but temperature was higher up-estuary. For the most intensively studied species (Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas) transplanted four times over 2 years, seasonal and regional variation in growth were best predicted by temperature rather than resource availability. Growth rates continued to increase into Totten Inlet, a shallow finger inlet at the head of Puget Sound. As indicators of environmental conditions, the growth and tissue chemistry of intertidal study taxa affirm that sources and amounts of resources show no strong gradients along this estuarine fjord, and they also support temperature as a key factor for performance, with species-specific responses. Higher temperatures may also have community-level impacts, given prior evidence linking beach temperatures to reduced intertidal diversity and biomass into Puget Sound.     

Transport of Crustacean Larvae Between a Low-Inflow Estuary and Coastal Waters

The effectiveness of larval behavior in regulating transport between well-mixed, low-inflow estuaries and coastal waters in seasonally arid climates is poorly known. We determined the flux of an assemblage of benthic crustacean larvae relative to physical conditions between a shallow estuary and coastal waters on the upwelling coast of northern California (38°18′N, 123°03′W) from 29 to 31 March 2006. We detected larval behaviors that regulate transport in adjacent coastal waters and other estuaries for only two taxa in the low-inflow estuary, but they were apparent for taxa outside the estuary. Vertical mixing in the shallow estuary may have overwhelmed larvae of some species, or salinity fluctuations may have been too slight to cue tidal vertical migrations. Nevertheless, all larval stages of species that complete development in nearshore coastal waters were present in the estuary, because they remained low in the water column reducing seaward advection or they were readily exchanged between the estuary and open coast by tidal flows. Weak tidal flows and gravitational circulation at the head of the estuary reduced seaward transport during development for species that completed development nearshore, whereas larval release during nocturnal ebb tides enhanced seaward transport for species that develop offshore. Thus, nonselective tidal processes dominated larval transport for most species back and forth between the low-inflow estuary and open coastal waters, whereas in adjacent open coastal waters, larval behavior in the presence of wind-induced shear was more important in regulating migrations between adult and larval habitats along this upwelling coast.     

Larval Brachyuran Crab Timing and Distribution in Relation to Water Properties and Flow in a High-Latitude Estuary

Crab larval dispersal and, thus, adult population size can be influenced by oceanographic conditions, especially in highly dynamic and variable environments such as high-latitude estuaries. This study's primary goal was to understand larval timing, abundance, and distribution in relation to oceanographic effects between the more estuarine inner and more oceanic outer part of the subarctic estuary of Kachemak Bay (south-central Alaska, USA). Temperature and salinity measurements and plankton tows were taken along the boundary between the two bay parts from 31 March to 28 October 2008 on spring and neap tides. Summer water flow and stratification in Kachemak Bay were chiefly buoyancy driven, and predominant flow patterns were not affected by the large tidal range in the region. Larvae of seven brachyuran species were found over the sampling period, with seasonally different peak abundances. Larval spatial distribution patterns, presence of most larval stages for each species, and their seasonal timing and persistence within the water column suggest that most species are locally transported within or close to Kachemak Bay. The larval assemblage was correlated with seasonal changes in water temperature, and peak abundances of some species coincided with spring tides and/or frontal systems between the in- and outflow regions of the bay. The strong influence of freshwater on the local circulation pattern in the summer indicates that larval transport will likely be strongly affected by future changes in glacial melt and precipitation.     

Trends in Abundance Indices of Fishes in Maryland’s Coastal Bays During 1972–2009

Maryland’s coastal bays provide habitat for juveniles of many commercially and recreationally important species of shellfish and finfish. Since 1972, the Maryland Department of Natural Resources has conducted the Maryland Coastal Bays Trawl and Seine Survey to monitor the populations of key species. The survey has undergone substantial spatial and methodological changes affecting the interpretation of simple indices of abundance. We developed generalized linear models to standardize the indices of abundance of five commonly caught fish species: Atlantic menhaden Brevoortia tyrannus, weakfish Cynoscion regalis, spot Leiostomus xanthurus, bay anchovy Anchoa mitchilli, and summer flounder Paralichthys dentatus. Density declined significantly since 1972 for menhaden, bay anchovy, and spot in at least one region within the coastal bays. The northern bays had significantly higher densities than the southern bays for all species. Changes in abundance indices of the five species examined were not related to sea grass coverage, temperature, salinity, nitrogen-to-phosphorus ratios, and other habitat variables but were likely a result of stock-wide recruitment processes.     

A late Holocene paleoenvironmental reconstruction from Agua Caliente,southern Belize,linked to regional climate variability and cultural change at the Maya polity of Uxbenká

We report high-resolution macroscopic charcoal, pollen and sedimentological data for Agua Caliente, a freshwater lagoon located in southern Belize, and infer a late Holocene record of human land-use/climate interactions for the nearby prehistoric Maya center of Uxbenká. Land-use activities spanning the initial clearance of forests for agriculture through the drought-linked Maya collapse and continuing into the historic recolonization of the region are all reflected in the record. Human land alteration in association with swidden agriculture is evident early in the record during the Middle Preclassic starting ca. 2600 cal yr BP. Fire slowly tapered off during the Late and Terminal Classic, consistent with the gradual political demise and depopulation of the Uxbenká polity sometime between ca. 1150 and 950 cal yr BP, during a period of multiple droughts evident in a nearby speleothem record. Fire activity was at its lowest during the Maya Postclassic ca. 950–430 cal yr BP, but rose consistent with increasing recolonization of the region between ca. 430 cal yr BP and present. These data suggest that this environmental record provides both a proxy for 2800 years of cultural change, including colonization, growth, decline, and reorganization of regional populations, and an independent confirmation of recent paleoclimate reconstructions from the same region.     

Discovery of possible mega-thrust earthquake along the Seram Trough from records of 1629 tsunami in eastern Indonesian region

Arthur Wichmann’s “Earthquakes of the Indian Archipelago” documents several large earthquakes and tsunami throughout the Banda Arc region that can be interpreted as mega-thrust events. However, the source regions of these events are not known. One of the largest and well-documented events in the catalog is the great earthquake and tsunami affecting the Banda Islands on August 1, 1629. It caused severe damage from a 15-m tsunami that arrived at the Banda Islands about a half hour after violent shaking stopped. The earthquake was also recorded 230 km away in Ambon, but no tsunami is mentioned. This event was followed by at least 9 years of uncommonly frequent seismic activity in the region that tapered off with time, which can be interpreted as aftershocks. The combination of these observations indicates that the earthquake was most likely a mega-thrust event. We use an inverse modeling approach to numerically reconstruct the tsunami, which constrains the likely location and magnitude of the 1629 earthquake. Only, linear numerical models are applied due to the low resolution of bathymetry in the Banda Islands and Ambon. Therefore, we apply various wave amplification factors (1.5–4) derived from simulations of recent, well-constrained tsunami to bracket the upper and lower limits of earthquake moment magnitudes for the event. The closest major earthquake sources to the Banda Islands are the Tanimbar and Seram Troughs of the Banda subduction/collision zone. Other source regions are too far away for such a short arrival time of the tsunami after shaking. Moment magnitudes predicted by the models in order to produce a 15-m tsunami are M_w of 9.8–9.2 on the Tanimbar Trough and M_w 8.8–8.2 on the Seram Trough. The arrival times of these waves are 58 min for Tanimbar Trough and 30 min for Seram Trough. The model also predicts 5-m run-up for Ambon from a Tanimbar Trough source, which is inconsistent with the historical records. Ambon is mostly shielded from a wave generated by a Seram Trough source. We conclude that the most likely source of the 1629 mega-thrust earthquake is the Seram Trough. Only one earthquake >M_w 8.0 is recorded instrumentally from the eastern Indonesia region although high rates of strain (50–80 mm/a) are measured across the Seram section of the Banda subduction zone. Enough strain has already accumulated since the last major historical event to produce an earthquake of similar size to the 1629 event. Due to the rapid population growth in coastal areas in this region, it is imperative that the most vulnerable coastal areas prepare accordingly.     

A shallow seismic refraction study of the Versailles cryptoexplosion structure,central Kentucky

Abstract— The Versailles cryptoexplosion structure, located in central Kentucky, contains a partially brecciated central uplift and a boundary marked by arcuate faulting. Seismic refraction data were used to divide the structure into distinct units on the basis of velocity. A zone of brecciated material shows a decrease in velocity compared with surrounding rocks. Locally thickened strata are present on the flanks of the central uplift. An increase of the bedrock velocity in the area surrounding the structure suggests localized dolomization of fractured bedrock, and a plug of fractured strata near the base of the brecciation appears to be uplifted. Based on the geometry of deformation seen in known impact structures, and the integration of this study with previous geological and geophysical work in the area, it is suggested that our results support the interpretation of the Versailles structure as an eroded astrobleme (Black, 1964b; Seeger, 1972).     

underwThe Hawaii-2 Observatory seismic system

The Hawaii-2 Observatory seismic system is currently transmitting high-quality seismic data from the ocean floor in the central NE Pacific Ocean through Hawaii to the IRIS Data Management Center. The system includes broad-band seismic, geophone, acoustic, and ocean current sensors. The seismic sensors are buried about 0.4 m below the ocean floor to improve coupling to the ocean bottom and to reduce noise levels. The system can be remotely calibrated, leveled and locked, and gains can be changed on command from shore. Data are temporarily stored in the seismic package for retransmission as needed to correct for transmission problems and to prevent loss of data. Data generated are valuable for studies of the Earth's structure and the dynamics of earthquakes     

A Simple Relation to Constrain Groundwater Models Using Surface Deformation

A simple relation between pore pressure change and one-dimensional surface deformation is presented. The relation is for pore pressure change in a confined aquifer that causes surface deformation. It can be applied to groundwater models of any discretization and is computationally efficient. The estimated surface deformation from model results can be compared to observed surface deformation through geodetic techniques such as Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar. Model parameters then are constrained using the observed surface deformation. The validity of this relation is shown through constraint of model parameters for surface uplift due to pore pressure increase caused by wastewater disposal injection.